Market state · snapshot 2026-11-06 08:04 UTC · auto-refresh every ~2 h · history — daily · Deribit data
Every day the options market puts a price on future moves — and it almost always errs to one side. Here we show that price (DVOL, the volatility smile, delta-25 skew) next to realized volatility — and how much more, or less, fear currently costs compared to reality.
“Cheap” — against its own one-year history (DVOL percentile). This is the state of prices now, not a forecast: cheap options can get cheaper still. For a buyer of movement cheap options are favourable; for a premium seller — the opposite.
📍 Now: on the front tenor the left edge is raised — the put wing costs more by 7.4 pts (puts pricier — strong, the market pays for protection).
How to read the smile: each curve is the price of options (IV) across the strikes of one tenor; the vertical line is current spot. A raised LEFT edge = downside insurance costs more (the market fears a fall); a raised right edge — they pay for upside. Hover for the exact IV of every tenor at a strike.
How to read: what the “central” volatility costs for each maturity. Now: INVERSION — near options cost more than far ones: the market pays for fear NOW (a stress state). A curve inversion is our verified marker of elevated movement ahead (the case file lives in our Ledger). On contango and inversion — glossary →.
| tenor | ATM IV | Δ25 skew (put - call) | Δ25 wings (BF) | reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov 26 ≈7d | 41% | +7.4% | +2.3% | puts pricier — strong, the market pays for protection |
| 27 Nov 26 ≈30d | 38% | +5.6% | +1.5% | puts pricier — strong, the market pays for protection |
| 29 Jan 27 ≈90d | 39% | +4.7% | +1.2% | puts pricier — strong, the market pays for protection |
📍 Now: on the front tenor the left edge is raised — the put wing costs more by 9.8 pts (puts pricier — extreme).
How to read the smile: each curve is the price of options (IV) across the strikes of one tenor; the vertical line is current spot. A raised LEFT edge = downside insurance costs more (the market fears a fall); a raised right edge — they pay for upside. Hover for the exact IV of every tenor at a strike.
How to read: what the “central” volatility costs for each maturity. Now: INVERSION — near options cost more than far ones: the market pays for fear NOW (a stress state). A curve inversion is our verified marker of elevated movement ahead (the case file lives in our Ledger). On contango and inversion — glossary →.
| tenor | ATM IV | Δ25 skew (put - call) | Δ25 wings (BF) | reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov 26 ≈7d | 57% | +9.8% | +1.5% | puts pricier — EXTREME |
| 27 Nov 26 ≈30d | 54% | +7.8% | +2.2% | puts pricier — strong, the market pays for protection |
| 29 Jan 27 ≈90d | 53% | +4.1% | +1.2% | puts pricier — strong, the market pays for protection |
our own hourly archive since January 2024 — depth no free service provides
📍 Now: implied 40 vs realized 38 → premium +2.8. Near parity — the market prices future movement honestly, without excess fear.
How to read: the blue line is what the market PAYS for future moves, the grey one is how much movement actually HAPPENED. When blue sits above — fear is overpriced and time works for the option seller; crossovers (facts above expectations) are rare buyer windows. The “VRP” button draws the premium itself: everything dipping below zero is a buyer’s window. Hover for exact values on any date.
📍 Now: percentile 18 of the year — very low. Historically, the weeks after readings like this brought an expansion of movement more often than continued quiet.
How to read: where today’s “price of fear” stands against its own one-year history. Below 20 — very low (historically the launchpad of big moves), above 80 — panic is already in option prices. The spot overlay shows WHAT price was doing in those zones.
🗂 A verified case from the Ledger: buying far ETH puts in deep quiet — confirmed alpha (BTC — no). The dossier with a frozen criterion — in the registry (UA).
📍 Now: 7-day skew +7.7 · 30-day +5.7 — puts pricier — strong, the market pays for protection.
How to read: above zero — downside insurance (puts) costs more than upside bets: the market pays for protection. Sharp spikes — panic episodes; negative values — rare greed (calls pricier). Two lines — the short (7d) and the monthly (30d) horizons.
🗂 From the Ledger: raw skew as a directional signal we rejected; its reversal, however, feeds the live “Skew 2.0” construction on the Proving Ground. All skew case files — in the registry (UA).
📍 Now: implied 56 vs realized 50 → premium +5.8. Fear costs visibly more than reality — historically such periods fed the option seller.
How to read: the blue line is what the market PAYS for future moves, the grey one is how much movement actually HAPPENED. When blue sits above — fear is overpriced and time works for the option seller; crossovers (facts above expectations) are rare buyer windows. The “VRP” button draws the premium itself: everything dipping below zero is a buyer’s window. Hover for exact values on any date.
📍 Now: percentile 21 of the year — mid-range, no strong tilt.
How to read: where today’s “price of fear” stands against its own one-year history. Below 20 — very low (historically the launchpad of big moves), above 80 — panic is already in option prices. The spot overlay shows WHAT price was doing in those zones.
🗂 A verified case from the Ledger: buying far ETH puts in deep quiet — confirmed alpha (BTC — no). The dossier with a frozen criterion — in the registry (UA).
📍 Now: 7-day skew +9.6 · 30-day +7.7 — puts pricier — extreme.
How to read: above zero — downside insurance (puts) costs more than upside bets: the market pays for protection. Sharp spikes — panic episodes; negative values — rare greed (calls pricier). Two lines — the short (7d) and the monthly (30d) horizons.
🗂 From the Ledger: raw skew as a directional signal we rejected; its reversal, however, feeds the live “Skew 2.0” construction on the Proving Ground. All skew case files — in the registry (UA).
DVOL is Deribit's volatility index: the expected 30-day volatility of bitcoin, annualised and worked out from the prices of out-of-the-money options in the two expiries around 30 days. Traders call it the VIX of bitcoin. ETH has its own DVOL, and this page shows both. DVOL tells you how much the market pays for future moves, not which way price will go.
The page shows the latest DVOL for BTC and ETH with its one-year rank: the share of the past year's readings that sat below today's level. Under 25% we label options cheap, above 75% expensive, each time against their own history. Cheap options can get cheaper still, so the rank describes prices now, not what comes next. Data refreshes about every 2 hours; the time of the snapshot is at the top.
DVOL is what the market expects and pays for. Realized (historical) volatility, HV on this page, is how much the price actually moved. DVOL minus HV is the volatility risk premium, which we call the fear premium. When it is positive, options are priced above the moves the market has just made, and option sellers collect the gap in exchange for carrying tail risk. When it drops below zero, actual moves are running hotter than options price in, which is rare. The history charts track this gap back to January 2024.
Skew compares the implied volatility of a 25-delta put and a 25-delta call with the same expiry. On this site skew = put IV minus call IV. Above zero, protection against a fall costs more than a bet on a rise; below zero, calls are pricier. Many data sources quote the 25-delta risk reversal instead, which is call minus put, so its sign is the opposite of ours. Read the words next to the number ("puts pricier" or "calls pricier") rather than the sign alone.
Divide by the square root of 365, about 19.1, because crypto trades every day. For example, a DVOL of 50 works out to roughly 2.6% for one day. For a week divide by about 7.2, which gives roughly 6.9%. That is one standard deviation as the options market prices it, not a forecast, and real moves have fatter tails than this simple model assumes.
The smile plots implied volatility across strikes for one expiry; we draw three, at about 7, 30 and 90 days. A raised left side means puts below spot cost more, so the market is paying for crash protection; a raised right side means it pays for upside. The term structure shows at-the-money IV by expiry. Normally far expiries cost more than near ones (contango). When near options cost more than far ones, the curve is inverted: the market is paying for stress now.
Not its direction. In our study of 907 days of DVOL (January 2024 to July 2026) extreme readings faded back toward the average every time, and about two in three BTC fear peaks sat within two weeks of a local price bottom. Yet bitcoin's return 30 days after a peak was close to a coin flip, and a bottom is only visible in hindsight. A high DVOL says movement is expensive; it does not say which way the move goes. How far a move may run depends partly on the dealer gamma regime.
🔒 What this means for positions today — in the daily two-forces briefing (08:30): whether this is a volatility buyer’s window or a premium seller’s field, and what the system does about it. Subscribe via the bot · all access levels — on the Access page.
📊 Data — from Deribit (options) and Hyperliquid (futures). Both venues are our partners: signing up through our links gets you −10% / −4% off fees; it does not affect the analysis.
A market state, not a recommendation. Skew and premium are computed from Deribit mark prices (delta-25 via Black-Scholes, r=0). Past states do not guarantee future outcomes. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.