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Daily intel · the levels & walls board · declassified · updated 2026-09-08 01:39 UTC · auto-refresh every ~2 h

Max pain & option walls:
BTC and ETH levels today

The price at which market makers collect the most at settlement while option buyers lose the most — for every expiry. Plus what no aggregator gives you: the walls of open contracts and the market-maker breakeven corridor, read straight from the live crypto option chain. Real Deribit data — not guesses. Below — where the interest flowed over 24h ↓, and our verdict on these levels — every morning at 08:30 in @indiciadesk.

⚖️ Straight up: we tested the max pain theory on 368 BTC/ETH expiries — it calls settlement right only 34% of the time. The magnet does not work. What does hold: the market-maker breakeven corridor, 82%. full breakdown with the data →
🎯 Today: BTC 79 307 — inside the MM breakeven range (60 000–83 000); to the put wall 60 000 -24.3%, to the call wall 80 000 +0.9%. Max pain Sep 25: 72 000 (-9.2% from spot). ETH 2 499 — inside the MM breakeven range (1 700–2 750); to the put wall 2 100 -16.0%, to the call wall 2 500 +0.0%. Max pain Sep 25: 2 250 (-10.0% from spot). ⚡ set a watch on these levels
📐 Expected move (priced into options, 1σ): BTC ±2.0% per day · ±5.4% per week · ETH ±2.8% per day · ±7.3% per week. With ~68% probability price stays within these bounds. This is not our forecast — it is what the market is “pricing into” options right now (computed from DVOL). A move beyond the cone = a day stronger than expected.
🌀 The gamma layer has moved. Dealer hedging walls, zero-gamma and the market regime (BTC right now: damping, flip at $69 391) now live on their own page, together with the regime history. Dealer gamma exposure (GEX) →

How to read the board

Max pain — the price at which, at settlement, market makers collect the most and holders of bought contracts get the least. Our public verification board shows: a clean “magnet” pull to this exact point is rare (3 of 34), but the anchor effect is real: near these zones price stalls and gets sticky more often than chance.

Walls — strikes with the largest number of open contracts: calls (right) — upside bets, puts (left) — protection and downside bets. Price often stalls near walls.

MM breakeven corridor (the highlighted zone) — a conditional, model-based range: while price stays inside it, the premium market makers collected still covers the payouts. A break outside = the machines are losing money — their own hedging starts to amplify the move, and that is where a correction can snowball into a crash, and a bounce into a vertical melt-up.

BTC

spot 79 307 · perp funding +0.0000%/8h · max pain Sep 25: 72 000 · MM breakeven: 60 000–83 000
perp basis +17 · DVOL 39 (below 30% of the year) · HV 36 · fear premium +3.0 · full volatility state →

The current max pain for BTC is $72 000, based on 181 294 open interest contracts expiring 25 Sep 26. Spot is $79 30710.1% above max pain. Snapshot 01:39 UTC, Deribit option chain.

🧾 Coverage: the max pain above is computed across the whole market — the Deribit and Bybit books merged into one and minimised together. Separately: Deribit 72 000 · Bybit 77 000 (3% of this expiry open interest sits on Bybit).
◀ puts (protection/down)strikecalls (upside bets) ▶
100 000
98 000
96 000
95 000
94 000
93 000
92 000
91 000
90 000
89 000
88 000
87 000
86 000
85 000
84 000
83 500
83 000 MM bound
82 500
82 000
81 500
81 000
80 500
80 000 call wall
79 500
SPOT 79 307
79 000
78 500
78 000
77 500
77 000
76 000
75 000
74 000
73 000
72 000 max pain
71 000
70 000
69 000
68 000
67 000
66 000
65 000
64 000
63 000
62 000
61 000
60 000 put wallMM bound
59 000
58 000

Expiries: max pain · MM breakeven · walls · contracts

datemax painMM breakevenput wallcall wallOI
08 Sep 2679 50078 500–81 00078 50082 0002 246
09 Sep 2679 50076 000–81 50077 50081 0005 377
11 Sep 2678 00073 000–82 00073 00081 00026 816
18 Sep 2679 00072 000–84 00072 00082 00011 496
25 Sep 26•••••••••••••••
30 Oct 26•••••••••••••••
27 Nov 26•••••••••••••••
25 Dec 26•••••••••••••••
26 Mar 27•••••••••••••••
25 Jun 27•••••••••••••••
🔒 6 more expiries with the MM breakeven range for each — 💠 subscriber access
Get access

ETH

spot 2 499 · perp funding +0.0003%/8h · max pain Sep 25: 2 150 · MM breakeven: 1 700–2 750
perp basis +1 · DVOL 53 (below 18% of the year) · HV 44 · fear premium +8.2 · full volatility state →

The current max pain for ETH is $2 150, based on 723 427 open interest contracts expiring 25 Sep 26. Spot is $2 49916.2% above max pain. Snapshot 01:39 UTC, Deribit option chain.

🧾 Coverage: the max pain above is computed across the whole market — the Deribit and Bybit books merged into one and minimised together. Separately: Deribit 2 150 · Bybit 2 200 (11% of this expiry open interest sits on Bybit).
◀ puts (protection/down)strikecalls (upside bets) ▶
3 100
3 000
2 950
2 900
2 850
2 800
2 750 MM bound
2 700
2 680
2 660
2 650
2 640
2 620
2 600
2 580
2 570
2 560
2 550
2 540
2 520
2 500 call wall
SPOT 2 499
2 480
2 470
2 460
2 450
2 440
2 420
2 400
2 380
2 360
2 350
2 340
2 320
2 300
2 280
2 250 max pain
2 200
2 150
2 100 put wall
2 050
2 000
1 950
1 900
1 850
1 800

Expiries: max pain · MM breakeven · walls · contracts

datemax painMM breakevenput wallcall wallOI
08 Sep 262 4802 440–2 5202 1002 58025 277
09 Sep 262 4802 380–2 5402 3402 7008 251
11 Sep 262 4502 300–2 6002 2002 80099 576
18 Sep 262 5002 250–2 8002 2002 80057 721
25 Sep 26•••••••••••••••
30 Oct 26•••••••••••••••
27 Nov 26•••••••••••••••
25 Dec 26•••••••••••••••
26 Mar 27•••••••••••••••
25 Jun 27•••••••••••••••
🔒 6 more expiries with the MM breakeven range for each — 💠 subscriber access
Get access
⚖️ Does max pain work? We put it on trial across 368 expiries: an exact hit — only 34% (yesterday’s spot is more accurate). The MM breakeven corridor, however, held the settlement in 82% of cases. The full board of every expiry — in the Dossier (UA).

Open-interest flow

where big money moved its open positions — from our own hourly archive

BTC · WHERE INTEREST FLOWED IN 24H · Δ of open positions by strike (top 16)updated 07.09 08:21 UTC
drag to zoom · double-click to reset

📍 Now: biggest call inflow — 80k (+812 contracts) · puts — 74k (+1 632) · biggest outflow — 71k. Snapshot 2026-09-07 7:00 UTC.

How to read: bars up — an inflow of new positions at a strike over 24h, down — closures. Blue calls at strikes above spot = bets on an upside break; orange puts below — protection being built. A large inflow into a single strike = someone is building a position. Hover for exact contracts.

ETH · WHERE INTEREST FLOWED IN 24H · Δ of open positions by strike (top 16)updated 07.09 08:21 UTC
drag to zoom · double-click to reset

📍 Now: biggest call inflow — 3800 (+59 224 contracts) · puts — 2500 (+2 565). Snapshot 2026-09-07 7:00 UTC.

How to read: bars up — an inflow of new positions at a strike over 24h, down — closures. Blue calls at strikes above spot = bets on an upside break; orange puts below — protection being built. A large inflow into a single strike = someone is building a position. Hover for exact contracts.

PUT/CALL RATIO ON OPEN INTERESTupdated 07.09 08:21 UTC
drag to zoom · double-click to reset

📍 Now: BTC 0.55 (percentile 15 of history: bottom of the range — little protection, upside bets dominate) · ETH 0.55 (percentile 69 of history: middle of the range).

How to read: how many downside insurances (puts) stand per one upside bet (call) in open positions — what is the put/call ratio. Above one — protection dominates; a sharp rise in the ratio = the market is buying insurance en masse, a sharp fall = greed. Hover for values on a date; the “Spot” buttons overlay price.

📡 Level watch — a private alert the moment price breaks a wall, leaves the MM breakeven range or touches your level. How it works →

📊 Data — from Deribit (options) and Hyperliquid (futures). Both venues are our partners: signing up through our links gets you −10% / −4% off fees; it does not affect the analysis.

We compute max pain ourselves (coin-terms, the same algorithm as our public verification board — where the pure “magnet” hit only 3 times out of 34, while the anchor effect is confirmed). Walls = strikes with the largest open interest within ±28% of spot. A journal of the system’s decisions, not investment advice. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.

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