Exchange partially closed one whale twice · 29.10.2026
Case No. 20261029 · 29.10.2026
Bitcoin went up and back within a 2.7% range over the day, and in that time the exchange partially closed one whale twice: part of its short at the high, part of the long it had flipped into at the night low; at least four other big accounts meanwhile took profit at both ends.
Case No. 20261029 · 29.10.2026 06:04 UTC · BTC$80,144 / ETH$2,320 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
The daily expiry 28.10 settled at 08:00 UTC: bitcoin at $80,868, inside the market-maker corridor $78,500–81,500 fixed a day before expiry; max pain$80,000 didn't match — the settlement was 1.1% above it. Ether at $2,353, inside its corridor $2,260–2,380; max pain$2,320 didn't match either. The registry took in both — it now holds 470 expiries. No new closed cases over the day — still 889.
Of the positions yesterday's radar said to watch: the short that added again saw price touch its line as early as 08:35 UTC, and the exchange closed part of its position. The new long with the largest of the near long lines never waited for its line — it closed on its own, at a profit, before the night low.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is down 0.8%, ether 1.4%. Between the morning snapshots (04:46 UTC) bitcoin travelled 2.7%: the high on the Hyperliquid perp was $81,804 at 08:36 UTC, the low $79,668 at 02:45.
• The short we've tracked since Monday the exchange partially closed at the high — the second time in three days; it closed the rest itself, made money in the evening on a long it held for two hours, and went long again — and at the night low the exchange partially closed that long too. Its line now lies 0.9% under the price.
• Big accounts took profit at both ends: a big long sold in the upper part of the range, three big shorts bought back on the decline and near the low — one of them opened a short again at once.
• The whales' short tilt by the registry barely changed — 3.6 times against 3.7: the short shrank more than the long. On the constant set of addresses the whales shifted toward long by about $13.9M over the day.
• Near fuel now sits close on both sides: within 1% above the price — $26.8M of short lines, under it — $9.7M of long lines; yesterday within 1% was empty.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳. Bitcoin funds bought five times less over the week than the week before, ether funds were selling; our fear-and-greed index is 52 against 46.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, −$120 on the day, +$6,243 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$74,969 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,799. Table at the bottom.
🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas
Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change in coins between the 04:46 UTC snapshots — on the constant set and on all addresses of both snapshots (how we track whale positions). In BTC on the constant set — 127 addresses — longs grew by 219BTC and shorts by 46: the tilt moved toward long by about $13.9M. The long came from the whale the exchange closed twice — it went from short to long — from the big low-leverage long that added once more, and from one more long that grew its position; a big short almost fully closed on the decline. Shorts were added by an account that flipped from long, an account that doubled its short, and a new short — all at high leverage. Two more big accounts — the long that sold at the top of the range and the short that bought back near the low — closed in full and dropped out of the sample; across all addresses — about $23.4M toward long. In ETH on the constant set longs grew by 5,432 ETH and shorts shrank by 2,922: about $19.4M toward long. The big ether long shrank almost by half, but two other longs grew and several shorts shrank. Across all addresses — about $18.4M toward long. Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — at the 04:46 UTC snapshot: BTC long $208.1M against a short of $757.7M, yesterday — $215.5M and $799.4M. The short is 3.6 times the long against 3.7 yesterday: the short shrank by about $42M, the long by about $7M. ETH — $301.2M against $635.7M, the long share 32.1% against 31.5%. Overleveraged whales number 59 against 62 yesterday, their positions total $971.6M against $1,068.6M, 64% of it longs against 52%. Among the addresses of the morning sample the exchange twice partially closed one account's bitcoin positions — first a short, then a long; among the addresses whose lines lay inside the day's range or that changed side, we found no other forced closes.
Arena two — Deribit options. In the two-day window, from Tuesday morning to Thursday morning, 55 structures were recognised in bitcoin and 20 in ether — against 34 and 9 in yesterday's window. The main event in bitcoin — calls for Friday. At 12:33 UTC three identical blocks bought call spreads slightly above the market for 30.10 — a position on a rise up to a set ceiling. In the morning calls slightly above the market were bought for today's expiry, and overnight, near the low, at 02:41–03:33 — four blocks of calls near the market for Friday. At 02:38 November protection went through: puts under the market, paid for by selling calls above it. In ether, three morning blocks bought put spreads for today's expiry — a position on a fall down to a set floor; at 15:13 — a December risk reversal: puts far under the market sold and calls far above it bought, a position on a rise. Quiet accumulation over the week (what a block is): in bitcoin puts far under the market keep being built up, mostly December, along with calls slightly above the market — mostly for Friday; in ether — puts under the market and calls above it across many expiries, positions in both directions.
Arena three — money at the exchange border. The last transfer above $250k in the snapshot was today at 05:42 UTC. Over seven days $35.3M was brought into the exchange and $69.3M taken out — $34.0M more left than arrived; yesterday the weekly window gave −$33.9M, so the week's picture hasn't changed. The day was quiet: since yesterday's snapshot $4.1M came in by eleven small tranches — mostly coins, ZEC and SOL from exchange deposit addresses — and two withdrawals went out, $0.7M of USDC cash together. Coins over the week came in: $9.5M of bitcoin arrived with no withdrawal at all, ZEC $8.2M against $0.5M withdrawn, ether $2.1M against $0.9M, SOL $2.0M. Of USDC cash, $54.4M more left than arrived.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses
What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position. The data is flowing again. In bitcoin the latest figures are for Tuesday 27.10; there is no Wednesday data yet. Over the week 21–27.10 the funds took in $41.3M against $211.0M the week before — five times less: the outflow on Thursday and Friday, 22–23.10, ate almost all of the inflow, and on Monday and Tuesday the funds were buying again (TFTC / The Commoner). In ether over the week 22–28.10 the funds let out $276.4M against $244.4M the week before — the outflow isn't slowing (SoSoValue). This camp contradicts the whales: in bitcoin the funds buy, if more slowly, while the whales stand short; in ether the funds sell while the whales shift toward long.
What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book. BTCskew is +3.3 against +2.9 yesterday — puts got a little dearer again after three days of decline (what skew is). In ETH+3.2 against +3.9. BTC two-day vol sits in the 28th percentile since February against the 51st yesterday; ETH — in the 28th against the 48th (what implied vol is). Our fear-and-greed index stands at 52 out of 100 against 46 yesterday — still the neutral zone. This camp is silent: the nearest insurance got cheaper, the tilt toward puts grew a little — neither strong fear nor greed.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position. BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.010% in eight-hour terms, as yesterday, on Binance +0.002% against +0.006% (what funding is). In ETH+0.001% on Hyperliquid against +0.005%, and +0.003% on Binance against +0.008%. This camp is silent: longs pay even less than yesterday; the fall didn't overheat either side.
What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales. On Bybit perps at 03:30 UTC 64.8% of BTC accounts stand long against 65.9% yesterday; in ETH72.8% against 72.5%. The whales' long share in bitcoin — 21.5% against 21.2%, in ether 32.1% against 31.5%. This camp contradicts the whales: the crowd holds long, the whales short. The gap in bitcoin narrowed for a third day running — by 1.4 points, to 43.3 — and this time mostly because of the crowd: its long share fell by 1.1 points. It is wider than on 63% of the days in our month of measurement, yesterday — than on 77%. In ether 40.6 against 41.0.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market. On OKX swaps $466k was liquidated over the day, 83% of it longs, against $98k yesterday, when almost all of it was shorts; that is 9% of the week's liquidations. On Hyperliquid the exchange twice partially closed one big account's positions — at the high and at the low. This camp is silent: the forcing-out was pointwise, no cascade.
Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer
The classic altseason index is 49.5 out of 100 on a list of 218 alts against 52.2 yesterday on a list of 232; the lists differ, so the comparison is rough. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.
Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 40.5% — $4.69B of $11.60B against 40.7% yesterday.
Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's make up 40.4% of open interest against 4.0% yesterday. This measure swings between extremes from one day to the next, so a difference like this isn't treated as a move.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 75.1% long against 73.8% yesterday.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 25.1% long across $1.14B of positions, the largest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — over the day the whales' long share barely moved: 25.1% against 25.0%.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short in bitcoin: the registry's short is 3.6 times the long against 3.7 yesterday, while price is down 0.8% from yesterday's snapshot. The witnesses: the crowd and the funds stand against the whales; options, futures and stress are silent.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a new whale short: the day's shift on the constant set of addresses went toward long, and the registry's tilt shrank because shorts were being reduced — part of them the exchange force-closed at the high, part the accounts bought back at a profit on the decline — and price fell. Big high-leverage fuel now sits close on both sides — within 1% above the price $26.8M of short lines, under it $9.7M of long lines — and over the day the market has already shown how it fires in both directions. This is about the range of a move for the same push, not about direction.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• how the account of the whale the exchange partially closed over the day — out of a short, then out of a long — has changed, and where its new line now lies;
• the structure of the day — call spreads for Friday in three identical blocks: which strikes and what was paid for them.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
💎DEEP
🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠
Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 04:46 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 04:46 snapshots, in coins; the moves of individual addresses come from the trade records. Distance to liquidation is from the header spot. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.
The whale the exchange closed twice over the day. Yesterday at the snapshot — SHORT 388.4BTC ($31.5M) at 40× from $80,667, liquidation at $81,685, the account holding $0.66M. At 08:35 UTC, a minute before the day's high of $81,804, the exchange force-closed 77.7BTC of its short at $81,695–81,705, −$80k. The rest of the short the account closed on its own by 18:01 UTC, +$33k. At 18:15 it opened LONG 303.6BTC at $80,757–80,814 and at 20:12–20:15 closed it at $81,226–81,338, +$151k; after a brief short, at 21:22 it opened LONG 168.5BTC again at $81,381–81,414. Overnight at 01:49–02:30 the exchange force-closed 60.7BTC of this long at $79,782–80,000, −$91k. That is the third partial forced close of this account in four days — after 26.10. This morning LONG 107.9BTC ($8.6M) at 40× from $81,399, uPnL −$144k, liquidation at $79,451 — 0.9% under spot; at 20:25 UTC $0.27M of USDC was moved out of the trading account (inside Hyperliquid, not off the exchange), and it now holds $0.25M against $0.66M yesterday; by the day's trades — +$12k before fees.
Profit at both ends. The account that flipped two days ago from an ether short into a bitcoin long sold 300BTC at 09:34 UTC at $81,313–81,387, +$319k, at 17:55–18:03 bought 400 more at $80,793–81,117 and at 21:27–21:28 sold those too at $81,165–81,257, +$117k; this morning — no position. A 400-BTC short from $80,432 was bought back near the low at 01:49–03:48 UTC at $79,839–80,000, +$212k. The 258.2-BTC short from $80,552 added 217BTC over the day and closed 464BTC at $79,886–80,555 — +$260k — and holds only SHORT 11.5BTC without leverage.
New lines close above the market. The account that opened SHORT 100BTC at 40× yesterday doubled it, at 02:48 UTC near the low bought back all 200BTC at $79,781–79,834, +$146k, and at 02:52–03:21 opened a short again: SHORT 200BTC ($16.0M) from $79,914, uPnL −$30k, liquidation at $80,855 — 0.9% above spot. Yesterday's flipped long flipped once more: LONG 150BTC closed at a loss, this morning SHORT 131BTC ($10.5M) at 40× from $79,880, liquidation at $80,861 — also 0.9%. Together that is $26.5M of the $26.8M of short fuel within 1% above the price.
The longs that added. The big low-leverage long added once more — to LONG 667.2BTC ($53.4M) at 11× from $81,112, uPnL −$0.70M, liquidation at $74,757 — 6.7% under spot. A 40× long grew from 200 to 340BTC ($27.2M) from $81,239, liquidation at $76,550 — 4.5% under spot; its ether long — from 2,000 to 6,000 ETH. The big 40× long is unchanged: LONG 333.2BTC ($26.7M) from $82,109, uPnL −$0.68M, liquidation at $76,525. The long the exchange has already partially closed twice — LONG 13.2BTC with its line at $79,346; the day's low passed $322 from it.
A new short in no hurry. SHORT 100BTC ($8.0M) at 40× from $81,191, uPnL +$113k, liquidation at $92,743 — 15.7% above the market; the same account's ether short — from 1,500 to 2,000 ETH.
Ether. The big 25× ether long shrank from 10,000 to 5,373 ETH ($12.5M) from $2,602, uPnL −$1.52M. The big 10× ether long is unchanged: LONG 48,500 ETH ($112.5M) from $2,610, uPnL −$14.1M against −$12.2M yesterday, liquidation at $2,171 — 6.4% under the market. A new 1,000-ETH short at 25× from $2,365 has its line at $2,415 — 4.1% above the market.
The largest short house. Two addresses: BTC SHORT $210.5M from $76,366, uPnL −$9.7M, and BTC SHORT $201.5M from $78,115, uPnL −$4.9M; ETH SHORT $246.7M and $151.8M, uPnL +$0.4M and +$3.7M. Together the unrealised loss is $10.5M against $22.1M yesterday: both coins got cheaper, and the ether legs are back in profit. The positions barely changed over the day (one address added 15.5BTC). The account that doubled its short on 23.10 added again — 65.8BTC: SHORT 1,264.8 BTC ($101.3M) at 25× from $81,528, uPnL +$1.85M, liquidation at $92,236 — 15.1% above the market; its ether short shrank from 7,235 to 5,789 ETH. The largest gain among bitcoin and ether positions — ETH LONG $70.2M at 20× from $2,134, uPnL +$5.58M against +$6.77M yesterday.
Case No. 1219 · the structure of the day — November protection in bitcoin. At 02:38 UTC, near the night low, with the index at $79,675: 23 puts at $74,000 bought and 23 calls at $87,000 sold, both for 27.11; ≈0.08BTC paid. The put is 7.7% under the header spot, the call 8.6% above it: insurance against a deep fall, paid for by giving up the rise beyond $87,000.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-27 expiry. The whale paid $7k in premium. Breakeven: $73,713.
The call spreads for Friday. At 12:33 UTC three identical blocks of 200 each: calls at $82,500 bought and calls at $85,000 sold for 30.10, ≈0.56–0.58BTC paid per block, ≈1.7BTC in total. The largest gain comes if bitcoin settles on Friday at 08:00 above $85,000; zero — below $82,500, which is 2.9% above the header spot. In the morning at 07:30–07:52 four blocks bought 500 calls at $82,000 for today, ≈1.7BTC; at 13:48 — 150 more of the same for Friday, ≈0.57BTC. Overnight at 02:41–03:33, with the index at $79,669–79,760, four blocks bought 250 calls at $80,000 for Friday, ≈1.6BTC. The other way, at 00:46 150 calls at $82,000 for Friday were sold.
Ether: put spreads for today. At 06:50, 07:13 and 08:31 UTC three blocks, 5,000 in total: puts at $2,280 bought and puts at $2,200 sold for 29.10, ≈8.3ETH paid. It earns if ether settles today at 08:00 below $2,280; the snapshot caught it at $2,320. At 15:13 — a December risk reversal of 4,300: puts at $1,500 sold, calls at $3,200 bought, ≈15.1ETH paid. At 08:58 200 March straddles at $2,300 were sold, ≈52.4ETH received; at 12:32 1,000 December puts at $2,200 were sold and 500 puts at $1,500 bought, ≈47.8ETH received.
Cases in the registry — 1 new, 0 closed; 190 open. Case No. 1218 · ETH, a condor for 30.10: the largest gain — between $2,340 and $2,350; the snapshot caught ether at $2,320 — $20 under the bottom of that zone, but inside the wings $2,250–2,450.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-30 expiry. The whale received $6k in premium. Breakeven: $2,290 and $2,400.
Case No. 1215 · BTC, December protection: 50 puts at $72,000 bought, 50 calls at $90,000 sold, for 25.12. The put is 10.2% under spot, the call 12.3% above it.
Payoff profile at the 2026-12-25 expiry. The whale paid $8k in premium. Breakeven: $71,840.
Case No. 1217 · BTC, a put ratio spread: 25 sold puts at $79,500 for 30.10 remain — 0.8% under spot against 1.6% yesterday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-27 expiry. The whale received $18k in premium. Breakeven: $77,553.
Case No. 1216 · BTC, a call diagonal: 23 calls at $86,000 for 13.11 sold, 23 at $92,000 for 27.11 bought. The sold strike is 7.3% above spot.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-13 expiry. The whale received $4k in premium. Breakeven: $86,176.
Case No. 1214 and No. 1197 · BTC, call spreads $90,000 / $95,000 for 27.11 and 06.11: the lower strike is 12.3% above spot against 11.4% yesterday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-27 expiry. The whale paid $75k in premium. Breakeven: $90,376.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-06 expiry. The whale paid $183k in premium. Breakeven: $90,365.
Case No. 1081 · a BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 5.6% against this position — yesterday 6.5%; it expires tomorrow.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-30 expiry. The whale received $729k in premium. Breakeven: $76,290.
The tape outside the case registry. In bitcoin at 02:23–02:24 UTC three blocks sold 375 November puts at $73,000 and 375 calls at $88,000 each, bought 250 December puts at $74,000 and 125 calls each at $86,000 and $88,000, ≈5.0BTC paid. At 23:31–23:37 three blocks — a complex December structure: December calls at $80,000, 35 puts at $80,000 and November calls at $92,000 sold, calls at $88,000 and $100,000 bought, ≈4.7BTC received. At 05:45 50 December straddles at $80,000 were sold, ≈5.7BTC received. ΔOI over the week:BTC: +3,118 puts at $72,000, 65% on 25.12; +1,692 calls at $82,500, 73% on 30.10; +1,615 calls at $82,000, across 11 expiries. ETH: +14,126 puts at $2,000, across 9 expiries; +11,241 puts at $2,300, across 10 expiries; +10,782 calls at $2,500, across 9 expiries.
🔬Who exactly
The largest short house is Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): two addresses, $411.9M of bitcoin short together and $398.5M in ether, $10.5M of unrealised loss.
The account that doubled its short on 23.10 is the address with the self-assigned name VBVIT. A self-assigned name isn't identification.
The address with the Arkham label Wintermute, a market maker, flipped bitcoin from LONG 79.0 to SHORT 12.9BTC and cut its ether short from 9,893 to 7,848 ETH ($18.2M). A market maker's position may be a hedge, so we don't take a direction from it.
The address with the Arkham label Fasanara Capital grew its bitcoin short for a second day running — from 258.0 to 356.5BTC ($28.5M); its ether one it trimmed slightly — from 26,949 to 26,417 ETH ($61.3M), uPnL in ether +$3.47M. The same address received $0.36M and $0.50M of USDC at 08:34 and 22:34 UTC.
The rest of the portraits above — the whale the exchange closed twice, the accounts that took profit, the new shorts close above the market, the longs that added — aren't in our Arkham label base (today's request to Arkham again didn't answer); several of them have self-assigned names, but we don't use those.
Money by address. Withdrawals above $250k over the day — two: $0.40M USDC at 08:12 UTC to a Bybit deposit address and $0.30M USDC at 05:42 to an OKX deposit address. The deposits are small: six tranches of ZEC at $0.33–0.48M — from Binance and Kraken deposit addresses; two of SOL, $0.29M and $0.35M — from Binance; $0.26M of BTC from an address without a label; two of USDC — to the address with the Fasanara label.
🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬
Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days, between the 22.10 and 29.10 snapshots at 04:46 UTC, on 111 addresses: BTC — about $54.3M into the short, ETH — about $48.3M into the long; across all addresses of both snapshots — about $4.0M and about $15.6M into the long. Yesterday the weekly window gave about $21.5M into the short in bitcoin and about $3.8M into the long in ether on the constant set: the whales' weekly short in bitcoin grew 2.5 times, and the shift toward long in ether — almost 13 times. The new day alone doesn't explain it: 21.10 dropped out of the window — the day one of the largest shorts cut its position by 321BTC — and the big long that sold yesterday left the sample.
Gamma flip.BTC across the whole book at the 06:07 UTC calculation — $79,302 against $79,153 yesterday, spot 1.1% above it (what the flip is). The near flips — $80,406 at 2 days, $80,265–80,293 at 7–14 days — are back above spot, at 30 days $80,134 — almost on it; yesterday all of them were below spot. ETH across the whole book $2,346 against $2,316 — spot is now 1.1% below it, yesterday it was 1.6% above; the near ones at $2,385–2,393 — above the market.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +5.0 against +4.4 yesterday: IV38.1 against the actual weekly HV 33.1.
🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠
BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Today's expiry 29.10 is a daily one, at 08:00 UTC, after this snapshot: max pain$80,500 across the combined book and on Bybit, $80,000 on Deribit (what max pain is); put $80,000 (326 contracts), call $82,000 (593) (what the walls are) — the expiry is small. The market-maker corridor — $79,500–81,000, spot inside it, 0.8% above the lower edge. 30.10: max pain$78,000 across the combined book and on Deribit, $81,500 on Bybit; put wall $70,000 (4,352), call wall $95,000 (19,951). 30.10 holds 34% of all bitcoin contracts, 25.12 — also 34%.
ETH levels. 29.10: max pain$2,340 across the combined book, on Deribit and on Bybit; put $2,200 (5,082), call $2,440 (7,940). The market-maker corridor — $2,300–2,360, spot inside it. 30.10: max pain$2,450 across the combined book and on Deribit, $2,400 on Bybit; put wall $2,300 (25,275), call wall $2,600 (37,492).
Fuel. Lines from the 04:46 UTC snapshot, distances from the header spot. Within 1%: above BTC — $26.8M of short lines ($80,855 and $80,861), under it — $9.7M of long lines ($79,451 and $79,346); yesterday within 1% on either side was empty. Within 2% — $26.8M of shorts against $44.0M yesterday and $15.4M of longs against $12.1M, one more line at $78,980. Within 5% — $71.7M of long lines against $51.0M and $30.7M of shorts against $79.3M: the fuel under the price is now larger than above it. In ETH within 5% — $0.7M of longs under the market and $2.8M of shorts above it against $0.8M and $2.4M. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).
Gamma vacuum. In BTC there are no empty zones above the market; below it $74,000–75,000 is empty; in ETH — $2,150–2,200.
Stress test ±2%. From the header spot: in bitcoin a 2% fall ($78,541) is under the whole-book flip at $79,302 and under all three near long lines, the last of them $78,980; above, +2% ($81,747) is past both near short lines and past the near flips. In ether −2% ($2,274) is under the 30.10 put wall at $2,300; +2% ($2,366) is above the whole-book flip at $2,346 but under the near ones at $2,385–2,393.
OI flow.BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.53 · week 0.61 · now 0.59. ETH0.54 · 0.49 · 0.50 (what put/call is).
Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days BTC put/call is 0.56 on Deribit against 1.36 on Bybit; ETH0.72 and 0.79.
IV by tenor.BTC 2d P32/C30 · 8d P39/C36 · 29d P38/C34, percentiles since February for the 8- and 29-day — 46th and 26th; the two-day is in the cross-check above. ETH 2d P44/C41 · 8d P53/C48 · 29d P51/C48, percentiles 28th, 43rd and 24th. Day to day we compare only the two-day tenor: yesterday BTC P36, ETH P49. BTCDVOL36.7 against 30-day realised HV31.2 — a premium of +5.5 against +7.3; ETHDVOL51.6 against HV45.6 — +6.0 against +8.6 (what the premium is).
💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠
The code's verdicts. From 27.10: "The corridor holds" (rated 45%) — partial: bitcoin was inside the corridor 77% of the time, $80,259 at the end of the term; "Squeeze up through the short fuel" (30%) — confirmed: in the prices the code records, the high was $81,446 against the $81,000 level; "Slide under the gamma flip" was cancelled at its level yesterday already. From 28.10 all three stay open until 30.10; one fact so far: the Hyperliquid perp high of $81,804 at 08:36 UTC passed above the squeeze trigger at $81,700 and above the top of the corridor at $81,600 — the code will give the verdicts tomorrow. The all-time tally by name: "Squeeze up through the short fuel" — 20 of 46, 20 more cancelled at their level; "The corridor holds" — 31 of 59 plus 17 partial, 5 cancelled; "Slide into the long fuel" — 19 of 38, 17 cancelled.
The corridor holds — 35%. ⏱ 2 days, to 31.10. BTC stays between $79,500 and $80,800 — from −0.8% to +0.8% of the header spot. At the bottom the corridor ends above the $79,451 line of the whale the exchange closed twice; at the top — under the $80,855 and $80,861 lines of two 40× shorts. Cancellation level: a touch of $78,900 — under the whole-book gamma flip at $79,302 and under the $78,980 long line.
Squeeze up through the short fuel — 35%. ⏱ 2 days, to 31.10. Trigger: a touch of $80,900 — above the $80,855 and $80,861 lines, behind which sits $26.5M of short. Next — the day's high of $81,804, near which the exchange has already closed a short. Cancellation level: a touch of $79,400.
Slide into the long fuel — 30%. ⏱ 2 days, to 31.10. Trigger: a touch of $79,400 — under the $79,451 line of the whale the exchange closed twice. Further down — the $79,346 line, the whole-book gamma flip at $79,302 and the $78,980 line; on Friday — max pain$78,000. Cancellation level: a touch of $80,900.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.
🔭WHAT TO WATCH
• Two 40× shorts with lines at $80,855 and $80,861 — 0.9% above the market, $26.5M (💠).
• The whale the exchange closed twice: its new long with its line at $79,451 — 0.9% under the market (💠).
• The 30.10 expiry at 08:00 UTC — 34% of bitcoin contracts, max pain$78,000, the $82,500 / $85,000 call spreads and the expiry of case No. 1081 (💠).
• The ether condor No. 1218: settlement 30.10 against the $2,340–2,350 zone with ether at $2,320 (💠).
🆓TAIL
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel(the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
−$120 on the day · +$6,243 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 534%−$1,125+$74,969 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 437%−$1,125+$23,559 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 4134%−$454+$9,803 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 5231%−$1,016+$3,786 26.05
Fear Flash V3 1225%−$240+$1,526 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,799 · Wheel Trail V6 −$9,556 · Wheel Trail V7 −$8,634. Over the day no trade in the top five closed; at the bottom all three are now Wheel Trail versions: V8 and V6 deepened their loss by about $0.7k each, and V7 pushed Skew 1.0 out of the three. The Pendulum lost $120 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 53 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 470 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 385 times — 82%; yesterday's daily expiries in both coins also settled inside the corridor. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 173 of those same 470 expiries, 37%; yesterday's daily expiry matched in neither coin — after one day with a match. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 116, 42%. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 889 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 882 with a score, −$18.91M in total for the whales; no new closed cases over the day. Case No. 1210 the code closed at the first expiry in the black, and the second leg settled at a loss — that isn't in this sum yet. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$6,243 since 11.05 with −$120 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name, on a losing day too.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 52 out of 100 against 46 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself.BTC two-day vol — 28th percentile of the hourly history since February, eight-day — 46th, 29 days out — 26th: the nearest and the monthly insurance are cheaper than usual.
• Which way protection tilts.BTCskew+3.3: puts dearer than calls, and a little more so than yesterday's +2.9 — after three days of decline. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.