Short added again — line 1.1% above price · 28.10.2026
Case No. 20261028 · 28.10.2026
Bitcoin added 1.3% on the day and the whales shifted toward long even on the constant set of addressesyet the short the exchange partially closed two days ago added again on the rally, and the short lines within the first 2% above the price are now 5.6 times yesterday's.
Case No. 20261028 · 28.10.2026 06:36 UTC · BTC$80,819 / ETH$2,352 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
The daily expiry 27.10 settled at 08:00 UTC: bitcoin at $79,635, inside the market-maker corridor $78,500–82,000 fixed a day before expiry; max pain$80,000 the code counted as a match — the settlement was 0.5% below it. Ether at $2,308, inside its corridor $2,260–2,400, and max pain$2,320 matched too. Four expiries in a row max pain hadn't matched — this time it did in both coins. The registry took in both — it now holds 468 expiries. One case closed: an ether condor settled in its maximum-gain zone, the whale in profit; closed cases now number 889.
Of the positions yesterday's radar said to watch: the new nearest short closed on its own before the rally, at a profit, so the evening high above its old line no longer touched the position. The short the exchange partially closed two days ago never saw price reach its line — and added again on the rally. The December protection series didn't continue in December: two similar blocks went through for November.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is up 1.3%, ether 1.8%. Between the morning snapshots (04:46 UTC) bitcoin moved within 2.3%: the low on the Hyperliquid perp was $79,489 at 10:15 UTC, the high $81,281 at 21:33.
• Whales in bitcoin shifted toward long — both on the constant set of addresses and across all of them: the registry's short is 3.7 times the long against 5.2 yesterday, because the long grew by about $68M and the short by only about $28M.
• The short the exchange partially closed two days ago didn't give up on the rally — it added again: its line is now 1.1% above the price. In the first 2% above the price — $44.0M of short lines against $7.9M yesterday.
• On Deribit the day's trade was selling calm: condors on the nearest expiries in both coins and straddles sold in ether — positions that earn when price stays put.
• The exchange border over the week: $33.9M more left than arrived, against $22.7M yesterday; the day itself was quiet — $5.8M in, $1.5M out.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳. Our fear-and-greed index is 46, as yesterday; the gap between the crowd and the whales narrowed for a second day running — because the whales added long.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, +$95 on the day, +$6,363 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$74,969 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098. Table at the bottom.
🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas
Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change in coins between the 04:46 UTC snapshots — on the constant set and on all addresses of both snapshots (how we track whale positions). In BTC on the constant set — 131 addresses — longs grew by 199BTC and shorts shrank by 79: the tilt moved toward long by about $22.5M. The long came from one short that flipped to long, from an account that closed its ether short and a minute later bought bitcoin, and from a big low-leverage long that added once more. Shorts added too — the nearest one and two others — but one big short closed in full. Across all addresses — about $41.9M toward long: several new high-leverage longs entered the sample. In ETH on the constant set longs shrank by 2,531 ETH and shorts by 3,287: about $1.8M toward long. Two big ether shorts closed, among them the one that appeared two days ago, while several other shorts grew instead. Across all addresses — about $5.6M toward long. Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — at the 04:46 UTC snapshot: BTC long $215.5M against a short of $799.4M, yesterday — $147.0M and $771.5M. The short is 3.7 times the long against 5.2 yesterday. ETH — $299.6M against $652.5M, the long share 31.5% against 31.2%. Overleveraged whales number 62 against 58 yesterday, their positions total $1,068.6M against $919.1M, 52% of it longs against 59%. Among the addresses of the morning sample no forced closes were found in bitcoin or ether: positions closed on their own.
Arena two — Deribit options. In the two-day window, from Monday morning to Wednesday morning, 34 structures were recognised in bitcoin and 9 in ether — against 38 and 14 in yesterday's window. The main event — selling calm. In bitcoin at 14:12–14:22 UTC seven blocks assembled condors for today and tomorrow right at the market; in ether at 08:12 straddles were sold near the market for the nearest days, and at 13:45, 13:47 and overnight at 00:44 — three condors for 28, 29 and 30.10. All of it earns if price stands still and loses on a sharp move. Separately in bitcoin, two identical blocks at 13:27 and 13:35 sold deep October calls and bought more than twice as many calls slightly above the market — a position on a sharp rise. At 14:09 and 14:15 the November version of yesterday's protection went through twice: puts far under the market, paid for by selling calls far above it. Overnight at 04:15–04:38 December calls far above the market were sold. Quiet accumulation over the week (what a block is): in bitcoin puts far under the market are being built up — the farthest mostly December; in ether puts slightly above the market have grown, mostly for Friday, along with calls above the market across many expiries and puts far under it — positions in both directions.
Arena three — money at the exchange border. The last transfer above $250k in the snapshot was today at 03:39 UTC. Over seven days $39.9M was brought into the exchange and $73.8M taken out — $33.9M more left than arrived; yesterday the weekly window gave −$22.7M. The deepening didn't come from the new day — that was quiet: since yesterday's snapshot $5.8M came in by small tranches, and one withdrawal went out — $1.5M of USDC cash to an exchange deposit address; what changed is that 20.10, a day when about $15.5M more arrived than left, dropped out of the seven-day window. Coins over the week came in: $9.9M of bitcoin arrived with no withdrawal at all, of ZEC $6.4M more arrived than left, SOL $2.3M, of ether $1.2M more. Of USDC cash, $53.6M more left than arrived.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses
What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position. There are no fresh figures: the SoSoValue data source hasn't answered since 09.10, the latest are for Thursday 08.10. This camp is silent: no data.
What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book. BTCskew is +2.9 against +3.8 yesterday — puts are still dearer than calls, but less so for a third day running (what skew is). In ETH+3.9 against +3.4. BTC two-day vol sits in the 51st percentile since February against the 49th yesterday; ETH — in the 48th against the 55th (what implied vol is). Our fear-and-greed index stands at 46 out of 100, as yesterday — the neutral zone. This camp is silent: the tilt toward puts is melting, but insurance hasn't got cheaper, and the day's big blocks sold calm rather than taking a side.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position. BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.010% in eight-hour terms, as yesterday, on Binance +0.006% against +0.010% (what funding is). In ETH+0.005% on Hyperliquid against +0.003%, and +0.008% on Binance, as yesterday. This camp is silent: longs pay the usual price; the rally didn't heat up funding.
What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales. On Bybit perps at 23:35 UTC 65.9% of BTC accounts stand long against 66.6% yesterday; in ETH72.5% against 72.8%. The whales' long share in bitcoin — 21.2% against 16.0%, in ether 31.5% against 31.2%. This camp contradicts the whales: the crowd holds long, the whales short. The gap in bitcoin narrowed by 5.9 points, to 44.7 — because the whales added long while the crowd barely moved; it is now wider than on 77% of the days in our month of measurement, yesterday — than on 90%. In ether 41.0 against 41.6.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market. On OKX swaps $98k was liquidated over the day, almost all of it shorts, against $200k yesterday; that is 1% of the week's liquidations. Among the addresses of the morning sample on Hyperliquid there were no forced closes. This camp is silent: a 1.3% rise forced out almost nobody.
Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer
The classic altseason index is 52.2 out of 100 on a list of 232 alts against 42.2 yesterday on a list of 244; the lists differ, so the comparison is rough. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.
Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 40.7% — $4.76B of $11.68B against 40.8% yesterday.
Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's make up 4.0% of open interest against 49.8% yesterday. This measure swings between extremes from one day to the next, so even a difference like this isn't treated as a move.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 73.8% long against 74.7% yesterday.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 25.0% long across $1.16B of positions, the largest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — over the day the whales' long share rose by 0.7 points, from 24.3%.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short in bitcoin: the registry's short is 3.7 times the long against 5.2 yesterday, while price is up 1.3% from yesterday's snapshot. The witnesses: the crowd stands against the whales, though the gap narrowed; options, futures and stress are silent, the funds have no data.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a whale turn to long: the registry's short is still almost four times the long, and over the week on the constant set of addresses the whales still shifted toward short. The new longs came in with high leverage, and the nearest short added on the rally. That is why the near fuel now sits mostly above the price: in the first 2% above it — $44.0M of short lines; under it — $12.1M of long lines against $4.3M yesterday. This is about the range of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of a move up.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• where the liquidation line now lies for the short that added again, how much it grew and how much money sits behind it;
• the structures of the day — condors on the nearest expiries in both coins: between which levels they earn and what was received for them.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
💎DEEP
🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠
Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 04:46 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 04:46 snapshots, in coins; the moves of individual addresses come from the trade records. Distance to liquidation is from the header spot. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.
The short the exchange partially closed two days ago — and that added again. Yesterday at the snapshot — SHORT 233.4BTC ($18.6M) at 40× from $79,970, liquidation at $82,356, the account holding $0.88M. Over the day, from 12:38 to 01:19 UTC, it opened 1,554 BTC of short at $80,199–80,943 and closed 1,399 at $79,725–80,804, +$58k by the trades; there were no forced closes — the evening high of $81,281 didn't reach the line. This morning SHORT 388.4BTC ($31.5M) at 40× from $80,667, uPnL −$131k, liquidation at $81,685 — 1.1% above spot; the account holds $0.66M, effective leverage about 48×. That is $31.5M of the $44.0M of short fuel in the first 2%.
Yesterday's nearest short left on its own before the rally. The account that held SHORT 99BTC with its line at $80,778 closed it at 10:46–11:28 UTC, +$23k by the trades — before the evening high, which passed above that line. Today at 04:54–05:06, after the snapshot, it opened SHORT 80BTC again.
A short flipped to long. Yesterday — SHORT 180.5BTC from $80,059, liquidation at $82,150. Over the day the account closed 530BTC of short at a loss of $126k and was opening a long, −$110k by the trades in total. This morning LONG 150BTC ($12.2M) at 40× from $81,045, uPnL −$6k, liquidation at $79,135 — 2.1% under spot.
An ether short became a bitcoin long. The account that opened SHORT 7,565 ETH two days ago closed 7,965 ETH at 12:38 UTC at $2,328–2,330, −$116k, and at 12:39–12:45 bought 300BTC at $80,247–80,324. This morning LONG 300BTC ($24.3M) at 25× from $80,291, uPnL +$214k, liquidation at $77,867 — 3.7% under spot.
New longs. The big 8× long added once more — 89BTC from 10:56 to 02:47 — and holds LONG 480.3BTC ($38.9M) from $80,381, uPnL +$0.30M, liquidation at $71,358 — 11.7% under spot. Two new entrants in the sample — LONG 200BTC ($16.2M) each, at 40× from $80,160 and $80,625, liquidations at $67,937 and $69,455; the second also holds LONG 2,000 ETH. One more new long — 112.4BTC ($9.1M) at 40× from $80,299, liquidation at $79,353 — 1.8% under spot: that is the largest of the near long lines (closer lie only the small $79,841 and $79,826, about $1.5M together); over the day it opened 366BTC and closed 253 at a loss of $31k.
New shorts above the market. SHORT 258.2BTC ($20.9M) at 12× from $80,552, uPnL −$117k, liquidation at $86,672 — 7.2% above spot. SHORT 100BTC ($8.1M) at 40× from $80,958, liquidation at $82,427 — 2.0% above. The account whose line on 26.10 lay $4 above the day's high flipped from long to short yesterday at 10:54 UTC and holds SHORT 55.3BTC ($4.5M) at 40× from $79,944, uPnL −$59k, liquidation at $81,840 — 1.3% above spot.
The longs that remain under the market. The big 40× long is unchanged: LONG 333.2BTC ($27.0M) from $82,109, uPnL −$0.37M, liquidation at $76,629 — 5.2% under spot; its ether long 5,528 ETH ($13.0M) at 25×, liquidation at $2,188. The long the exchange has already partially closed twice — LONG 13.2BTC with its line at $79,322, 1.9% under spot; the day's low passed $192 from yesterday's line at $79,297. The big ether long — LONG 48,500 ETH ($114.4M) at 10× from $2,610, uPnL −$12.2M against −$14.6M yesterday, liquidation at $2,170 — 7.7% under the market.
Forced closes among the addresses of the morning sample in BTC/ETH over the day — none.
Ether: the shorts changed hands. Besides the one closed above, another account closed SHORT 6,375 ETH in full. Conversely, another short grew from 4,000 to 9,700 ETH ($22.9M) at 25× from $2,312, liquidation at $2,658 — 13.0% above the market.
The largest short house. Two addresses: BTC SHORT $211.7M from $76,344, uPnL −$12.2M, and BTC SHORT $203.8M from $78,115, uPnL −$7.3M; ETH SHORT $250.9M and $154.5M. Together the unrealised loss is $22.1M against $6.6M yesterday — that is the rise of both coins; more than half of the loss came from ether, where these shorts went from profit into loss. The positions barely changed over the day (one address added 10BTC); the liquidation of both is 62–67% above the market. The account that doubled its short on 23.10 trimmed it slightly — by 44.4BTC: SHORT 1,199.0 BTC ($97.1M) at 25× from $81,586, uPnL +$0.70M, liquidation at $91,825 — 13.6% above the market; its ether short grew from 6,643 to 7,235 ETH. The largest gain among bitcoin and ether positions — ETH LONG $71.4M at 20× from $2,134, uPnL +$6.77M against +$5.28M yesterday.
Case No. 1218 · the structure of the day — an ether condor for 30.10. Overnight at 00:44 UTC, with the index at $2,345: 125 puts at $2,250 bought, 125 puts at $2,340 and 125 calls at $2,350 sold, 125 calls at $2,450 bought; ≈2.66ETH received. The largest gain comes if ether settles on Friday at 08:00 between $2,340 and $2,350; the snapshot caught it at $2,352 — $2 above the top of that zone. The day before, on 27.10, at 13:45 and 13:47 two more condors went through — for 28.10 ($2,240/2,300/2,340/2,380) and 29.10 ($2,200/2,300/2,340/2,420), 125 each, ≈0.91 and ≈1.97ETH received; at 08:12 500 straddles at $2,300 for 31.10 were sold, ≈20ETH received. Only the overnight one made it into the case registry.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-30 expiry. The whale received $6k in premium. Breakeven: $2,290 and $2,400.
The bitcoin condors. At 14:12–14:17 UTC, four blocks, 100 in total: puts at $78,500 bought, puts at $79,500 and calls at $80,500 sold, calls at $81,500 bought — for today, ≈0.40BTC received. At 14:22, three blocks, 50 in total — the same for tomorrow: $77,500/79,500/80,500/82,500, ≈0.52BTC received. Both earn the most between $79,500 and $80,500; the snapshot caught bitcoin at $80,819 — above that zone.
Cases in the registry — 1 new, 1 closed; 189 open. Case No. 1213 · ETH, a condor for 27.10 — closed: ether settled at $2,308, inside the maximum-gain zone $2,300–2,320; the whale in profit, ≈$7.3k. Case No. 1215 · BTC, December protection: 50 puts at $72,000 bought, 50 calls at $90,000 sold, for 25.12. The put is 10.9% under spot, the call 11.4% above it.
Payoff profile at the 2026-12-25 expiry. The whale paid $8k in premium. Breakeven: $71,840.
Case No. 1217 · BTC, a put ratio spread: the daily leg at $80,000 settled yesterday at $79,635 — in the money; 25 sold puts at $79,500 for 30.10 remain, 1.6% under spot.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-27 expiry. The whale received $18k in premium. Breakeven: $77,553.
Case No. 1216 · BTC, a call diagonal: 23 calls at $86,000 for 13.11 sold, 23 at $92,000 for 27.11 bought. The sold strike is 6.4% above spot.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-13 expiry. The whale received $4k in premium. Breakeven: $86,176.
Case No. 1214 and No. 1197 · BTC, call spreads $90,000 / $95,000 for 27.11 and 06.11: the lower strike is 11.4% above spot against 12.8% yesterday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-27 expiry. The whale paid $75k in premium. Breakeven: $90,376.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-06 expiry. The whale paid $183k in premium. Breakeven: $90,365.
Case No. 1081 · a BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 6.5% against this position — yesterday 5.2%; it expires on Friday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-30 expiry. The whale received $729k in premium. Breakeven: $76,290.
The tape outside the case registry. In bitcoin at 13:27 and 13:35 UTC two identical blocks sold 100 calls at $75,000 for 30.10 each and bought 250 calls at $81,000 for 31.10 each, ≈4.2BTC received per block. At 14:09 and 14:15, twice 100: puts at $70,000 bought and calls at $90,000 sold, both for 27.11, almost nothing paid on top. Overnight at 04:15–04:38 200 December calls at $85,000 were sold and 25 bought — a net sale of 175, ≈6.9BTC received. At 18:10 63 puts at $62,000 for 25.06.2027 were bought, ≈2.1BTC; at 15:46 and 16:26 — two calendar spreads: calls at $81,000 for 27.11 and at $80,000 for 25.12 bought, the same ones for 06.11 sold, ≈1.4 and ≈1.9BTC paid. ΔOI over the week:BTC: +2,687 puts at $72,000, 75% on 25.12; +1,510 puts at $76,000, across 9 expiries; +1,488 puts at $77,000, across 7 expiries. ETH: +12,225 puts at $2,400, 64% on 30.10; +12,004 calls at $2,500, across 11 expiries; +10,609 puts at $2,000, across 9 expiries.
🔬Who exactly
The largest short house is Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): two addresses, $415.5M of bitcoin short together and $405.5M in ether, $22.1M of unrealised loss.
The account that doubled its short on 23.10 is the address with the self-assigned name VBVIT. A self-assigned name isn't identification.
The address with the Arkham label Wintermute, a market maker, after yesterday's cut grew its ether short again — from 7,782 to 9,893 ETH ($23.3M) — and cut its bitcoin long from 166.8 to 79.0BTC. A market maker's position may be a hedge, so we don't take a direction from it.
The address with the Arkham label Fasanara Capital, after two days of cuts, more than tripled its bitcoin short — from 76.6 to 258.0BTC ($20.9M); its ether one — 26,949 ETH ($63.5M) at 25× from $2,455, uPnL +$2.63M.
The rest of the portraits above — the short that added again, yesterday's nearest short, the flipped short, the ether short that became a bitcoin long, the new longs and shorts — aren't in our Arkham label base (today's request to Arkham again didn't answer); several of them have self-assigned names, but we don't use those.
Money by address. The day's only withdrawal above $250k — $1.5M USDC at 06:45 UTC to a Binance deposit address. The deposits are small: eight tranches of ZEC at $0.31–0.56M — some from Binance and Coinbase; $0.31M and $0.79M USDC at 12:10 and 17:34 — to the address with the Fasanara label; three of $0.30M — to one address without an Arkham label.
🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬
Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days, between the 21.10 and 28.10 snapshots at 04:46 UTC, on 119 addresses: BTC — about $21.5M into the short, ETH — about $3.8M into the long; across all addresses of both snapshots — about $18.9M and about $25.3M into the short. Yesterday the weekly window gave about $67M into the short in bitcoin and about $31M in ether on the constant set: the whales' weekly short in bitcoin shrank threefold, in ether it changed sign.
Gamma flip.BTC across the whole book at the snapshot — $79,153 against $79,091 yesterday, spot 2.1% above it (what the flip is). The near flips, from the calculation at 00:06 UTC — $80,219 at 2 days and $80,148–80,185 at 7–30 days — are all below spot, for the first time in five days. ETH across the whole book $2,316 against $2,308 — spot 1.6% above it; at 2 days $2,322 — below the market; at 7–30 days $2,386–2,390 — above it.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +4.4 against +5.3 yesterday: IV37.7 against the actual weekly HV 33.2.
🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠
BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Today's expiry 28.10 is a daily one, at 08:00 UTC, after this snapshot: max pain$80,500 across the combined book and on Bybit, $80,000 on Deribit (what max pain is); put $77,000 (738 contracts), call $84,000 (495) (what the walls are) — the expiry is small. The market-maker corridor — $79,000–81,000, spot inside it, 0.2% under the upper edge. 30.10: max pain$78,000 across the combined book and on Deribit, $81,500 on Bybit; put wall $70,000 (4,349), call wall $95,000 (19,951). 30.10 holds 34% of all bitcoin contracts, 25.12 — also 34%.
ETH levels. 28.10: max pain$2,330 across the combined book and on Bybit, $2,320 on Deribit; put $2,100 (1,115), call $2,380 (1,694). The market-maker corridor — $2,280–2,360, spot inside it, near the upper edge. 30.10: max pain$2,475 across the combined book, $2,500 on Deribit, $2,450 on Bybit; put wall $2,300 (25,562), call wall $2,600 (37,442).
Fuel. Lines from the 04:46 UTC snapshot, distances from the header spot. Under BTC within 5% — $51.0M of long lines against $30.8M yesterday; above it — $79.3M of shorts against $40.8M. Between the market and −2% — $12.1M of longs against $4.3M, the largest of the near lines at $79,353 (closer — the small $79,841 and $79,826, about $1.5M together); between the market and +2% — $44.0M of shorts, lines at $81,685, $81,840 and $82,427; within 1% on either side — empty. In ETH under the market within 5% — $0.8M of longs, above the market — $2.4M of shorts against $18.0M yesterday: the big short from two days ago closed. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).
Gamma vacuum. In BTC there are no empty zones above the market; below it $75,000–76,000 is empty; in ETH — $2,200–2,250.
Stress test ±2%. From the header spot: in bitcoin a 2% fall ($79,203) is still above the whole-book flip at $79,153, but under the near flips and under the long lines at $79,353 and $79,322; above, +2% ($82,435) is past all three near short lines, the last of them, $82,427, by $8. In ether −2% ($2,305) is under the whole-book flip at $2,316; +2% ($2,399) is above the 7–30-day flips.
OI flow.BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.52 · week 0.59 · now 0.60. ETH0.55 · 0.50 · 0.50 (what put/call is).
Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days BTC put/call is 0.56 on Deribit against 1.39 on Bybit; ETH0.67 and 0.81.
IV by tenor.BTC 2d P36/C38 · 9d P39/C38 · 30d P39/C35, percentiles since February for the 9- and 30-day — 50th and 34th; the two-day is in the cross-check above. ETH 2d P49/C49 · 9d P56/C51 · 30d P53/C49, percentiles 48th, 54th and 38th. Day to day we compare only the two-day tenor: yesterday BTC P38, ETH P55. BTCDVOL37.4 against 30-day realised HV30.0 — a premium of +7.3 against +6.6; ETHDVOL53.2 against HV44.6 — +8.6 against +6.3 (what the premium is).
💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠
The code's verdicts. From 26.10: "The corridor holds" (rated 45%) — confirmed: bitcoin was inside it 98% of the time; "Squeeze up through the short fuel" (30%) — confirmed: the $81,031 high against the $81,000 level; "Slide under the gamma flip" (25%) — cancelled at its level: the same high reached $81,000. From 27.10 "Slide under the gamma flip" was also cancelled at the $81,000 level; the other two stay open until 29.10, and the code recorded a touch of $81,000 at 21:00 UTC — above the top of the corridor and at the squeeze trigger level.
The all-time tally (N counts only those that reached a verdict): squeeze up through the short fuel — 19 of 45, 20 more cancelled at their level; corridor — 31 of 58 plus 16 partial, 5 more cancelled; slide into the long fuel — 19 of 38, 17 more cancelled; slide under the gamma flip — 4 of 7, 6 more cancelled. The directional types with a large sample are still no better than a coin toss.
The corridor holds — 45%. ⏱ 2 days, to 30.10. BTC stays between $79,400 and $81,600 — from −1.8% to +1.0% of the header spot. At the bottom the corridor ends above the largest near long lines, $79,353 and $79,322 (the small $79,826–79,841 are inside the corridor); at the top — under the $81,685 line of the short that added again. Cancellation level: a touch of $78,800 — under the whole-book gamma flip at $79,153 and under the $79,135 line of the flipped long.
Squeeze up through the short fuel — 30%. ⏱ 2 days, to 30.10. Trigger: a touch of $81,700 — above the $81,685 line, behind which sits $31.5M of short. Next — the lines at $81,840 and $82,427, another $12.6M together. Cancellation level: a touch of $79,400.
Slide into the long fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 30.10. Trigger: a touch of $79,300 — under the $79,353 and $79,322 lines of two 40× longs. Further down — the $79,135 line and the whole-book gamma flip at $79,153, then $77,867. Cancellation level: a touch of $81,700.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.
🔭WHAT TO WATCH
• The short that added again: its line at $81,685 — 1.1% above the market, $31.5M of the $44.0M of short fuel in the first 2% (💠).
• The new 40× long with its line at $79,353 — the largest of the near long lines, 1.8% under the market (💠).
• The 30.10 expiry at 08:00 UTC — 34% of bitcoin contracts, max pain$78,000, and the expiry of case No. 1081 (💠).
• The ether condor No. 1218: settlement 30.10 against the $2,340–2,350 zone (💠).
🆓TAIL
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel(the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
+$95 on the day · +$6,363 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 534%−$1,125+$74,969 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 437%−$1,125+$23,559 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 4134%−$454+$9,803 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 5231%−$1,016+$3,786 26.05
Fear Flash V3 1225%−$240+$1,526 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098 · Wheel Trail V6 −$8,829 · Skew 1.0−$8,108. Over the day no trade in the top five closed; at the bottom one thing changed — Skew 1.0 took −$487 and dropped to third from the bottom, on its hundredth trade at a 31% win rate. The Pendulum made $95 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 53 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 468 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 383 times — 82%; yesterday's daily expiries in both coins also settled inside the corridor. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 173 of those same 468 expiries, 37%; yesterday's daily expiry matched in both coins — after four expiries in a row without a match. Decision: one good day doesn't change the share — we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 116, 42%. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 889 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 882 with a score, −$18.91M in total for the whales; yesterday's closed case — the ether condor, +$7.3k. Case No. 1210 the code closed at the first expiry in the black, and the second leg settled at a loss — that isn't in this sum yet. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$6,363 since 11.05 with +$95 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name, on a losing day too.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 46 out of 100, as yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself.BTC two-day vol — 51st percentile of the hourly history since February, nine-day — 50th, 30 days out — 34th: the nearest insurance sits mid-range, the monthly is cheaper than usual.
• Which way protection tilts.BTCskew+2.9: puts dearer than calls, less so than yesterday's +3.8 and the +4.6 the day before. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.