Price did reach the nearest short line yesterday · 27.10.2026
Case No. 20261027 · 27.10.2026
Price did reach the nearest short line yesterdaythe exchange closed part of that short, 42 minutes later the same account was topped up, and by evening the short was twice as big.
Case No. 20261027 · 27.10.2026 06:08 UTC · BTC$79,813 / ETH$2,310 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
The daily expiry 26.10 settled at 08:00 UTC: bitcoin at $79,947, inside the market-maker corridor $79,000–82,500 fixed a day before expiry, 1.2% above its lower edge; max pain$81,000 didn't match. Ether at $2,316, inside its corridor $2,280–2,480; max pain$2,400 didn't match. The registry took in both — it now holds 466 expiries. No new closed cases, still 888.
Of the positions yesterday's radar said to watch: the short with the nearest line above the market did see price reach it — at 15:21 UTC price reached the day's high, $80,835, and the exchange force-closed part of the position. Within 42 minutes new money arrived on the account, and by evening the short was twice its morning size. The long the exchange had already partially closed twice survived this time: the day's low stopped 0.2% short of its line. The largest short line above the market wasn't approached — that position is unchanged.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is down 0.3%, ether 0.4%. Between the morning snapshots (04:46 UTC) bitcoin moved within 1.8%: the low on the Hyperliquid perp was $79,430 at 13:36 UTC, the high $80,835 at 15:21.
• The day's high touched the nearest short line: the exchange partially closed the short, within 42 minutes the account was topped up, and by evening the position had doubled — this whale didn't give up, he added.
• Whales in bitcoin: the registry's short is 5.2 times the long against 6.7 yesterday — because a new big long came in during the day, not because shorts were cut. On the constant set of addresses the whales shifted toward short over the day.
• On Deribit in two hours, 13:12 to 14:59 UTC, 13 identical blocks went through: December puts far under the market bought and paid for by selling December calls far above it — protection against a deep fall, paid for by giving up a strong rise.
• The exchange border over the week turned to net outflow: $22.7M more left than arrived; yesterday $10.5M more had arrived. The largest withdrawals were USDC cash.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳. Our fear-and-greed index is 46 against 42 yesterday — back in the neutral zone; the gap between the crowd and the whales narrowed, but stays near the month's maximum.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, −$110 on the day, +$6,268 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$74,969 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098. Table at the bottom.
🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas
Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change in coins between the 04:46 UTC snapshots — on the constant set and on all addresses of both snapshots (how we track whale positions). In BTC on the constant set — 132 addresses — longs shrank by 160BTC and shorts grew by 6: the tilt moved toward short by about $13.2M. The main move: one long from yesterday's fuel flipped to short, and a few more accounts cut their longs; one short, conversely, flipped to long. Across all addresses the picture differs — about $18.8M toward long: a new big long, opened yesterday between 10:33 and 15:24 UTC, entered the sample, and the constant set doesn't see such entries. In ETH on the constant set longs grew by 2,068 ETH, shorts by 204: about $4.3M toward long. One account that held no ether at all yesterday opened a big short, but several others closed or cut their shorts, one of them by a quarter. Across all addresses — about $7.7M toward long. Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — at the 04:46 UTC snapshot: BTC long $147.0M against a short of $771.5M, yesterday — $113.6M and $766.3M. The short is 5.2 times the long against 6.7 yesterday. ETH — $293.5M against $646.2M, the long share 31.2% against 30.6%. Overleveraged whales number 58 against 62 yesterday, their positions total $919.1M against $928.5M, 59% of it longs. Among the addresses of the morning sample the exchange force-closed part of one bitcoin short — at 15:21 UTC, at the day's high; the big positions closed on their own.
Arena two — Deribit options. In the two-day window, from Sunday morning to Tuesday morning, 38 structures were recognised in bitcoin and 14 in ether — against 8 and 10 in yesterday's window: the blocks are back after a quiet weekend. The main event — a series of 13 identical blocks in bitcoin, 13:12–14:59 UTC, and one more of the same kind overnight at 02:28: December puts far under the market bought, December calls far above it sold, almost nothing paid on top. Over the weekend the wave of December protection had gone quiet; yesterday it returned in a form that costs little but cuts off the gain from a strong rise. Separately, at 12:26 one block sold November calls far above the market, and at 14:17–14:24 two blocks bought straddles for Thursday — a position on a move in either direction. In ether at 06:32 a March straddle near the market was sold — a position on ether making no big move before spring; at 15:00 one block sold a large put for September 2027 and bought the same one for March. Quiet accumulation over the week (what a block is): in bitcoin puts far under the market are being built up — mostly December — and calls above the market across many expiries; in ether puts above and below the market and calls above it have grown — positions in both directions.
Arena three — money at the exchange border. The last transfer above $250k in the snapshot was today at 03:35 UTC. Over seven days $52.6M was brought into the exchange and $75.3M taken out: $22.7M more left than arrived; yesterday the weekly window gave +$10.5M. The turn came in one day: since yesterday's snapshot $11.1M came in and $47.1M went out. All six largest withdrawals were USDC cash: two, $10.0M and $9.0M, at 09:40–09:46 UTC from addresses of the largest short house, whose positions barely changed over the day; another $20.0M in three tranches — to one private address. Coins over the week mostly came in: $23.0M of bitcoin arrived and $2.5M of SOL, with no withdrawal of either at all; of ZEC and ether $2.6M and $1.2M more arrived than left. Of USDC cash, $52.0M more left than arrived.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses
What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position. There are no fresh figures: the SoSoValue data source hasn't answered since 09.10, the latest are for Thursday 08.10. This camp is silent: no data.
What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book. BTCskew is +3.8 against +4.6 yesterday — puts are still dearer than calls, but noticeably less so (what skew is). In ETH+3.4 against +3.7. BTC two-day vol sits in the 49th percentile since February against the 42nd yesterday; ETH — in the 55th against the 50th (what implied vol is). Our fear-and-greed index stands at 46 out of 100 against 42 yesterday — it moved back from fear into the neutral zone. This camp is silent: the tilt toward puts shrank and the index left fear; December protection was bought in a big series, but paid for by selling calls — that is insurance, not a position on a fall.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position. BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.010% in eight-hour terms against +0.007% yesterday, on Binance +0.010% against +0.006% (what funding is). In ETH+0.003% on Hyperliquid against −0.001%, and +0.008% on Binance against +0.005%. This camp is silent: in bitcoin funding is back to its usual level, in ether longs pay a little; there is no overpayment on either side.
What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales. On Bybit perps at 02:35 UTC 66.6% of BTC accounts stand long against 65.8% yesterday; in ETH72.8% against 73.2%. The whales' long share in bitcoin — 16.0% against 12.9%, in ether 31.2% against 30.6%. This camp contradicts the whales: the crowd holds long, the whales short. The gap in bitcoin narrowed by 2.3 points, to 50.6 — because the whales' long share rose, not because the crowd left; it is still wider than on 90% of the days in our month of measurement. In ether 41.6 against 42.6.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market. On OKX swaps $200k was liquidated over the day, 66% of it longs, against $65k yesterday; that is 3% of the week's liquidations. Among the addresses of the morning sample on Hyperliquid the exchange partially closed one short — at the day's high. This camp is silent: almost nobody was forced out over the day.
Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer
The classic altseason index is 42.2 out of 100 on a list of 244 alts against 44.9 yesterday on a list of 214; the lists differ, so the comparison is rough. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.
Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 40.8% — $4.66B of $11.42B against 40.6% yesterday.
Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's make up 49.8% of open interest against 57.4% yesterday. This measure swings between extremes from one day to the next, so we don't treat a difference like this as a move.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 74.7% long against 75.0% yesterday.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 24.3% long across $1.09B of positions, the largest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — over the day the whales' long share fell by 1.8 points, from 26.1%.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short in bitcoin: the registry's short is 5.2 times the long against 6.7 yesterday, while price is down 0.3% from yesterday's snapshot. The witnesses: the crowd stands against the whales, the gap near the month's maximum; options, futures and stress are silent, the funds have no data.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a weakening of the whale short: the tilt shrank only because one new big long entered the registry, and the short the exchange partially closed at the high had doubled by evening. And there is now little near fuel on either side: in the first 2% above the price — $7.9M of short lines against $14.3M yesterday; under the price — $4.3M of small long lines against $3.1M. This is about the range of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of a move in either direction.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• where the liquidation line now lies for the short the exchange partially closed at the high, and how much money was brought to the account for it to double;
• the structure of the day — the December protection series: which levels, how many contracts and what it cost.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
💎DEEP
🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠
Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 04:46 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 04:46 snapshots, in coins; the moves of individual addresses come from the trade records. Distance to liquidation is from the header spot. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.
The short the exchange partially closed — and that doubled. Yesterday at the snapshot — SHORT 114.6BTC ($9.2M) at 40× from $79,633, liquidation at $80,655, the account holding $0.20M. At 15:21:04 UTC the mark price reached $80,688, and the exchange force-closed 22.9BTC at $80,700–80,753, −$25k. At 16:03 $0.60M USDC arrived on the account by transfer from another Hyperliquid address, and from 16:21 to 22:06 it opened 1,218 BTC of short at $79,850–80,324, closing part of it along the way. This morning SHORT 233.4BTC ($18.6M) at 40× from $79,970, uPnL +$81k, liquidation at $82,356 — 3.2% above spot; the account holds $0.88M against $0.20M, effective leverage about 21×. Across the day's trades +$12k in total — the forced loss was won back with the same short.
The short the high didn't reach. Yesterday's line of another 40× short, $80,839, lay $4 above the day's high. It didn't come to a forced close: the account traded both ways on its own all day, +$46k by the trades, and this morning holds LONG 14.7BTC.
The new nearest short. An account that yesterday at 13:36–14:20 UTC bought 80BTC near the day's low and had sold them by 14:32, −$0.7k, opened from 14:55 to 03:53 SHORT 99BTC ($7.9M) at 40× from $80,268, uPnL +$63k; liquidation at $80,778 — 1.2% above spot. That is the entire short line within the first 2% above the price.
The 40× long from yesterday's fuel flipped to short. Yesterday — LONG 190BTC from $79,878, liquidation at $77,839. Over the day the account closed 849BTC of long and opened 766BTC of short, +$44k by the trades in total. This morning SHORT 180.5BTC ($14.4M) from $80,059, uPnL +$78k, liquidation at $82,150 — 2.9% above spot.
The new big long. An account absent from yesterday's sample bought 391BTC from 10:33 to 15:24 UTC at $80,251–80,676, on the back of a series of USDC deposits to the account. This morning LONG 391.0BTC ($31.1M) at 8× from $80,388, uPnL −$0.30M; the account holds $3.6M, liquidation at $71,344 — 10.6% under spot. It is because of him that "all addresses" show a shift toward long while the constant set shows one toward short.
The longs that remain under the market. The big 40× long is unchanged: BTC LONG 333.2BTC ($26.5M) from $82,109, uPnL −$0.83M, liquidation at $76,604 — 4.0% under the market; its ether long 5,528 ETH ($12.8M) at 25×, liquidation at $2,187 — 5.3% under the market. That is $26.5M of the $30.8M of long fuel within 5%. The long the exchange has already partially closed twice — LONG 13.2BTC with its line at $79,297, 0.6% under the market; the day's low, $79,430, passed $156 from yesterday's line at $79,274. The buyer near yesterday's overnight low holds LONG 150BTC from $80,273, uPnL −$97k; his line is far away — $26,223.
Forced closure among the addresses of the morning sample in BTC/ETH — one, partial: the short above, 22.9BTC at the day's high. The big positions closed on their own.
Ether: a new big short, and the big long unchanged. An account that held no ether yesterday opened SHORT 7,565 ETH ($17.5M) at 25× from $2,315, liquidation at $2,418 — 4.7% above the market; that is almost all of ether's short fuel within 5%. The big long — LONG 48,500 ETH ($112.0M) at 10× from $2,610, uPnL −$14.6M against −$14.4M yesterday; liquidation at $2,170 — 6.1% under the market; ether's low for the day, $2,295, was 5.8% above it.
The largest short house. Two addresses: BTC SHORT $207.3M from $76,331, uPnL −$8.6M, and BTC SHORT $200.3M from $78,114, uPnL −$3.8M; ETH SHORT $245.7M and $151.3M — in ether in profit. Together the unrealised loss is $6.6M against $8.9M yesterday. The positions barely changed over the day (one address cut its short by 24.9BTC), while from the two accounts at 09:40 and 09:46 UTC $10.0M and $9.0M USDC were withdrawn; the liquidation of both is 66–80% above the market. The account that doubled its short on 23.10 added 57.1BTC: SHORT 1,243.5 BTC ($99.0M) at 25× from $81,638, uPnL +$2.50M, liquidation at $92,564 — 16.0% above the market. The largest gain among bitcoin and ether positions — ETH LONG $69.9M at 20× from $2,134, uPnL +$5.28M against +$5.40M yesterday.
Case No. 1215 · the structure of the day — December protection in a series. Yesterday from 13:12 to 14:59 UTC, with the bitcoin index at $79,697–80,282, 13 blocks of 100–250 went through, 1,500 in total: puts at $72,000 bought, calls at $90,000 sold, all for 25.12. Overnight at 02:28, at $79,833, 50 more of the same; it is this block the code booked as case No. 1215 — the 13 daytime blocks didn't make it into the registry. Together 1,550 puts and 1,550 calls; ≈3.27BTC paid on top — about $0.26M, ≈0.002 BTC per pair. The position gains on a fall below $72,000 — 9.8% under spot — and loses on a rise above $90,000 — 12.8% above spot; between them only this small outlay. Who it is, the block doesn't show: a hedge of a large spot bitcoin holding can look exactly the same.
Payoff profile at the 2026-12-25 expiry. The whale paid $8k in premium. Breakeven: $71,840.
Cases in the registry — 3 new, none closed; 189 open. Case No. 1216 · BTC, a call diagonal: at 03:10 UTC 23 calls at $86,000 for 13.11 sold, 23 at $92,000 for 27.11 bought.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-13 expiry. The whale received $4k in premium. Breakeven: $86,176.
Case No. 1217 · BTC, a put ratio spread: 25 puts at $79,500 for 30.10 sold, 12.5 puts at $80,000 for today bought.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-27 expiry. The whale received $18k in premium. Breakeven: $77,553.
Case No. 1213 · ETH, a condor for today: settlement at 08:00 UTC, the largest gain if ether settles between $2,300 and $2,320. The snapshot caught ether at $2,310 — inside that zone.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-27 expiry. The whale received $7k in premium. Breakeven: $2,271 and $2,349.
Case No. 1214 · BTC: 200 calls at $90,000 bought, 200 at $95,000 sold, both for 27.11. The lower strike is 12.8% above spot.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-27 expiry. The whale paid $75k in premium. Breakeven: $90,376.
Case No. 1197 · BTC: 500 calls at $90,000 bought, 500 at $95,000 sold, both for 06.11. The lower strike is 12.8% above spot against 12.5% yesterday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-06 expiry. The whale paid $183k in premium. Breakeven: $90,365.
Case No. 1212 · BTC, a put diagonal: 23 puts at $77,000 for 13.11 sold, 23 puts at $80,000 for 26.03.2027 bought. The sold strike is 3.5% under spot against 3.8% yesterday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-13 expiry. The whale paid $124k in premium. No breakeven inside the range shown.
Case No. 1081 · a BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026, premium ≈9.61BTC received. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 5.2% against this position — yesterday it was 5.5%.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-30 expiry. The whale received $729k in premium. Breakeven: $76,290.
The tape outside the case registry. In bitcoin at 12:26 UTC one block sold 500 calls at $95,000 and 500 at $96,000, both for 27.11, ≈3.1BTC received. At 14:17 and 14:24 145 and 105 straddles at $80,000 for 29.10 bought, ≈6.3BTC in total. At 08:34 and 09:19 — twice 50 straddles at $82,000 for 25.12, ≈6.1 and 6.0BTC. Overnight straddles at $80,000 were sold: at 01:54 — 50 for 25.12, ≈6.0BTC received, at 02:08 — 50 for 27.11, ≈4.2BTC. In ether at 06:32 500 straddles at $2,400 for 26.03.2027 sold, ≈136ETH received — about $0.31M; at 15:00 2,000 puts at $2,300 for 24.09.2027 sold and 2,000 of the same for 26.03.2027 bought, ≈107ETH received; at 10:13 500 strangles $2,000/$2,500 rolled from 30.10 to 27.11, ≈21ETH paid. ΔOI over the week:BTC: +2,722 puts at $72,000, 78% on 25.12; +2,098 calls at $90,000, across 10 expiries; +2,064 puts at $77,000, across 7 expiries. ETH: +13,043 puts at $2,400, across 10 expiries; +11,769 puts at $2,100, across 9 expiries; +11,646 calls at $2,500, across 11 expiries.
🔬Who exactly
The largest short house is Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): two addresses, $407.6M of bitcoin short together and $397.0M in ether, $6.6M of unrealised loss. It was their addresses that withdrew $10.0M and $9.0M USDC yesterday.
The account that doubled its short on 23.10 is the address with the self-assigned name VBVIT. A self-assigned name isn't identification.
The account that cut its ether short by a quarter — from 10,430 to 7,782 ETH ($18.0M) — and its bitcoin long from 218.1 to 166.8BTC is the address with the Arkham label Wintermute, a market maker. A market maker's position may be a hedge, so we don't take a direction from it.
The address with the Arkham label Fasanara Capital cut its bitcoin short once more — from 123.7 to 76.6BTC ($6.1M) — and barely touched its ether one: 26,328 ETH ($60.8M) at 25× from $2,458, uPnL +$3.96M.
The rest of the portraits above — the short partially closed at the high, the short the high didn't reach, the new nearest short, the flipped long, the new big long, the longs under the market and the new ether short — aren't in our Arkham label base (today's request to Arkham didn't answer); several of them have self-assigned names, but we don't use those.
Money by address. The day's largest withdrawals — $10.0M and $9.0M USDC from the Abraxas addresses at 09:40 and 09:46 UTC, to addresses we haven't checked; $10.0M and $5.0M at 13:54 and another $5.0M at 18:19 — to one private address. The largest deposit — $5.6M in bitcoin from Binance in two tranches at 18:19 and 18:47; another $3.0M USDC at 08:00–08:32 — in four tranches to a registry address holding a big short in bitcoin and ether. $0.30M USDC at 03:35 went to an OKX deposit address.
🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬
Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days, between the 20.10 and 27.10 snapshots at 04:46 UTC, on 113 addresses: BTC — about $67M into the short, ETH — about $31M into the short; across all addresses of both snapshots — about $133M and about $15M into the short. Yesterday the weekly window gave about $82M and about $23M on the constant set: the whales keep adding to the short — in bitcoin slightly less than in yesterday's window, in ether more.
Gamma flip.BTC across the whole book at the snapshot — $79,091 against $79,042 yesterday, spot 0.9% above it (what the flip is). The near flips, from the calculation at 02:35 UTC — $80,137 at 2 days and $80,191–80,225 at 7–30 days — are all above spot, for the fourth day running. ETH across the whole book $2,308 against $2,320 — spot 0.1% above it; at 2 days $2,315, at 7–30 days $2,362–2,364 — above the market.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +5.3 against +5.7 yesterday: IV38.4 against the actual weekly HV 33.1.
🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠
BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Today's expiry 27.10 is a daily one, at 08:00 UTC, after this snapshot: max pain$80,000 across the combined book, on Deribit and on Bybit (what max pain is); put $79,000 (273 contracts), call $81,000 (276) (what the walls are) — the expiry is small. The market-maker corridor for today — $79,500–81,000, spot inside it, 0.4% above the lower edge. 30.10: max pain$78,000 across the combined book and on Deribit, $82,000 on Bybit; put wall $70,000 (4,352), call wall $95,000 (19,951). 30.10 holds 34% of all bitcoin contracts, 25.12 — also 34%.
ETH levels. 27.10: max pain$2,320 across the combined book, on Deribit and on Bybit; put $2,100 (3,758), call $2,360 (2,840). The market-maker corridor — $2,280–2,360, spot inside it. 30.10: max pain$2,500 across the combined book and on Deribit, $2,450 on Bybit; put wall $2,300 (25,569), call wall $2,600 (37,458).
Fuel. Lines from the 04:46 UTC snapshot, distances from the header spot. Under BTC within 5% — $30.8M of long lines against $46.9M yesterday; above it — $40.8M of shorts against $46.2M. Between the market and −2% — $4.3M of longs against $3.1M; between the market and −1% — $1.9M, two small lines at $79,297 and $79,284. Between the market and +2% — $7.9M of shorts, one line at $80,778; yesterday $14.3M. The next short lines — $82,150 and $82,356, 2.9–3.2% away. In ETH under the market within 5% — $0.7M of longs, above the market — $18.0M of shorts, almost all of it the new short with its line at $2,418; the lines of the big ether longs, $2,187 and $2,170, lie just outside that zone. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).
Gamma vacuum. In BTC there are no empty zones above the market; below it $74,000–75,000 is empty; in ETH — $2,200–2,250.
Stress test ±2%. From the header spot: in bitcoin a 2% fall ($78,217) is under the whole-book flip at $79,091 and under all the near long lines, but still above the line at $76,604; above, +2% ($81,409) is past the short line at $80,778 and past all the near flips, but under the lines at $82,150 and $82,356. In ether −2% ($2,264) is under the whole-book flip at $2,308; +2% ($2,356) is above the two-day flip at $2,315, but under the 7–30-day flips.
OI flow.BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.52 · week 0.60 · now 0.60. ETH0.56 · 0.50 · 0.49 (what put/call is).
Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days BTC put/call is 0.56 on Deribit against 1.34 on Bybit; ETH0.84 and 0.81.
IV by tenor.BTC 2d P38/C35 · 10d P41/C38 · 31d P40/C35, percentiles since February for the 10- and 31-day — 54th and 40th; the two-day is in the cross-check above. ETH 2d P55/C48 · 10d P56/C52 · 31d P54/C50, percentiles 55th, 54th and 42nd. Day to day we compare only the two-day tenor: yesterday BTC P36, ETH P52. BTCDVOL38.1 against 30-day realised HV31.5 — a premium of +6.6 against +7.1; ETHDVOL53.2 against HV46.9 — +6.3, as yesterday (what the premium is).
💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠
The code's verdicts. From 25.10: "The corridor holds" (rated 45%) — confirmed: bitcoin was inside it 100% of the time; "Slide into the long fuel" (30%) — not confirmed: the $79,314 low against the $79,100 level; "Squeeze up through the short fuel" (25%) — not confirmed: the $80,740 high against the $81,900 level (the code measures on spot, which is why the high is lower than the $80,835 on the perp). Those from 26.10 stay open until 28.10; no trigger has been touched yet.
The all-time tally (N counts only those that reached a verdict): squeeze up through the short fuel — 18 of 44, 20 more cancelled at their level; corridor — 30 of 57 plus 16 partial, 5 more cancelled; slide into the long fuel — 19 of 38, 17 more cancelled; slide under the gamma flip — 4 of 7, 4 more cancelled. The directional types with a large sample are still no better than a coin toss.
The corridor holds — 45%. ⏱ 2 days, to 29.10. BTC stays between $79,000 and $81,000 — from −1.0% to +1.5% of the header spot. At the bottom the corridor ends under the whole-book gamma flip at $79,091; at the top — above the only near short line, $80,778, and above all the near flips. Cancellation level: a touch of $78,000 — under the long line at $78,491.
Squeeze up through the short fuel — 30%. ⏱ 2 days, to 29.10. Trigger: a touch of $81,000 — above the $80,778 line of the new nearest short and above all the near gamma flips. Next — the lines at $82,150 and $82,356 of two 40× shorts. Cancellation level: a touch of $79,000.
Slide under the gamma flip — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 29.10. Trigger: a touch of $79,000 — under the whole-book gamma flip, where dealers stop damping the move and start amplifying it, and under the small long lines at $79,297 and $79,284. Further down — the $76,604 line of the big long and the empty zone $74,000–75,000. Cancellation level: a touch of $81,000.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.
🔭WHAT TO WATCH
• The new 40× short with its line at $80,778 — 1.2% above the market, the only short line within the first 2% (💠).
• The short partially closed at the high that doubled by evening: its line at $82,356, 3.2% above the market (💠).
• The December protection series $72,000 / $90,000: whether it continues today (💠).
• The ether condor No. 1213: settlement today at 08:00 UTC against the $2,300–2,320 zone (💠).
🆓TAIL
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel(the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
−$110 on the day · +$6,268 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 534%−$1,125+$74,969 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 437%−$1,125+$23,559 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 4134%−$454+$9,803 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 5231%−$1,016+$3,786 26.05
Fear Flash V3 1225%−$240+$1,526 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098 · Wheel Trail V6 −$8,829 · Skew 2.0 V3 −$7,952. Over the day one trade in the top five closed — Skew 2.0 V2 took −$1,016, and its tally fell from +$4,801 to +$3,786; the Pendulum lost $110 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 53 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 466 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 381 times — 82%; yesterday's daily expiries in both coins also settled inside the corridor. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 171 of those same 466 expiries, 37%; yesterday's daily expiry — no in bitcoin and no in ether, and that is now the fourth expiry in a row in which both coins settled below it. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 116, 42%. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 888 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 881 with a score, −$18.92M in total for the whales. Case No. 1210 the code closed at the first expiry in the black, and the second leg settled at a loss — that isn't in this sum yet. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$6,268 since 11.05 with −$110 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name, on a losing day too.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 46 out of 100 against 42 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself.BTC two-day vol — 49th percentile of the hourly history since February, ten-day — 54th, 31 days out — 40th: the nearest insurance has been getting dearer for a third day running and is now near the middle of its range.
• Which way protection tilts.BTCskew+3.8: puts dearer than calls, less so than yesterday's +4.6. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.