The long that came in under the market yesterday in place of the one who gave up has also left on his ownand the near liquidation fuel now sits above bitcoin, not under it.
Case No. 20261026 · 26.10.2026 05:31 UTC · BTC$80,028 / ETH$2,320 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
Sunday's daily expiry 25.10 settled at 08:00 UTC: bitcoin at $80,566, inside the market-maker corridor $80,000–83,000 fixed a day before expiry, 0.7% above its lower edge; max pain$81,500 didn't match. Ether at $2,345 — right at the lower edge of its corridor $2,340–2,460, but inside it; max pain$2,400 didn't match. The registry took in both — it now holds 464 expiries. No new closed cases, still 888.
Of the positions yesterday's radar said to watch: the long that came in under the market in place of the one who gave up sold everything himself at 09:14 UTC, at a small loss — and the overnight low stopped 0.1% short of his line. The new short whose line was the nearest above the market wasn't reached, but over the day it halved its position, and its account more than halved. Among the small longs near the low the exchange again partially closed one — the same one as the day before yesterday.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is down 0.5%, ether 1.1%. Between the morning snapshots (04:46 UTC) bitcoin moved within 2.0%; the low on the Hyperliquid perp was $79,347 today at 01:46 UTC, 0.2% above yesterday's bottom. Ether fell to $2,293 at 03:54.
• The long that took the place of the one who gave up held for 15 hours and left on his own — at a loss, though in the morning he had been in profit. Under the market within 2% of the price $3.1M of long lines remain, against $31.5M yesterday.
• Above the price in the same 2% — $14.3M of short lines: the near fuel is now mostly overhead. Within 5% the sides are even — $46.9M of longs and $46.2M of shorts; the largest new line above the market belongs to the one who gave up on his long the day before yesterday: yesterday he closed his short at a profit and opened one twice as big.
• Whales in bitcoin: the registry's short is 6.7 times the long against 5.9 yesterday — because the long side shrank, not because shorts were added. The crowd on Bybit stands long, as yesterday, and the gap between it and the whales is the widest in a month of our measurement.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳. Our fear-and-greed index is 42 against 46 yesterday — it moved from the neutral zone into fear; on Deribit bitcoin saw fewer blocks, and the wave of December puts didn't continue.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, +$8 on the day, +$6,378 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$74,969 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098. Table at the bottom.
🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas
Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change in coins between the 04:46 UTC snapshots — on the constant set and on all addresses of both snapshots (how we track whale positions). In BTC on the constant set — 130 addresses — longs grew by 258BTC and shorts shrank by 76: the tilt moved toward long by about $26.6M. Longs were added by several large accounts, among them a new long opened 19 minutes after the overnight low; shorts were cut by two low-leverage accounts and by the most active short-term short. Across all addresses the picture differs — about $4.6M toward short: the long that left in full dropped out of the sample, and the constant set doesn't see such exits. In ETH on the constant set shorts shrank by 4,984 ETH and longs by 875: about $9.5M toward long, chiefly one account cutting its ether short by 42%. Across all addresses — about $5.7M toward short: new ether shorts (about 4.6k ETH) entered the sample and one long of about 2k ETH dropped out of it; the constant set doesn't see such changes. Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — at the 04:46 UTC snapshot: BTC long $113.6M against a short of $766.3M, yesterday — $132.1M and $784.5M. The short is 6.7 times the long against 5.9 yesterday. ETH — $286.0M against $649.1M, the long share 30.6% against 31.4%. Overleveraged whales number 62 against 67 yesterday, their positions total $928.5M against $1,059.1M, 57% of it longs. Among the addresses of the morning sample the exchange force-closed part of one small bitcoin long — at 01:44 UTC, two minutes before the low; the big positions closed on their own.
Arena two — Deribit options. Over Sunday and Monday morning, in the two-day window, 8 structures were recognised in bitcoin and 10 in ether — against 21 and 8 in yesterday's window: fewer blocks in bitcoin. The wave of December puts didn't continue: overnight into Monday — four small blocks of December put spreads, two bought, two sold. Protection was taken shorter: at 14:22–14:23 UTC two blocks of puts near the market — for today and for tomorrow. And at 01:56, 10 minutes after the day's low, a call spread for the end of November went through — a package that pays only if bitcoin rises far above the market. In ether at 04:34 — a structure that pays only if ether settles tomorrow at 08:00 in a narrow corridor near the current price. Quiet accumulation over the week (what a block is): in bitcoin calls far above the market for 30.10 are being unwound, while near the market calls are being built up across many expiries. In ether puts have grown at levels near the market and below — mostly for today and for 30.10 — and calls above the market across many expiries: positions in both directions.
Arena three — money at the exchange border. The last transfer above $250k in the snapshot was today at 04:19 UTC. Over seven days $48.7M was brought into the exchange and $38.2M taken out: $10.5M more arrived than left, against $16.8M yesterday. The difference isn't from this day: one $10.0M USDC withdrawal dated 19.10, which yesterday's slice didn't see, has been added to the week's outflow. In the day since yesterday's snapshot $3.3M came in and $3.2M went out — the border is nearly balanced. The day's largest deposit was in ether, the largest withdrawal in USDC. In the weekly window $18.4M more bitcoin arrived than left; ether — $2.5M more; SOL — $2.6M; ZEC — $1.9M; of USDC cash, $14.9M more left than arrived.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses
What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position. There are no fresh figures: the SoSoValue data source hasn't answered since 09.10, the latest are for Thursday 08.10. This camp is silent: no data.
What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book. BTCskew is +4.6 against +4.8 yesterday — puts are still dearer than calls, slightly less so than yesterday (what skew is). In ETH+3.7 against +3.0. BTC two-day vol sits in the 42nd percentile since February against the 31st yesterday; ETH — in the 50th against the 40th (what implied vol is). Our fear-and-greed index stands at 42 out of 100 against 46 yesterday — it moved from the neutral zone into fear. This camp confirms the whales, but weakly: the nearest protection got dearer for a second day running and the index slipped into fear; but the tilt toward puts didn't grow yesterday, and there were no big protection blocks at the weekend.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position. BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.007% in eight-hour terms against +0.010% yesterday, on Binance +0.006% against +0.007% (what funding is). In ETH−0.001% on Hyperliquid against +0.010%, and +0.005% on Binance against +0.006%. This camp is silent: longs in bitcoin pay slightly less than usual, in ether on Hyperliquid nobody pays; there is no overpayment on either side.
What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales. On Bybit perps at 05:31 UTC 65.8% of BTC accounts stand long against 65.9% yesterday; in ETH73.2% against 73.1%. The whales' long share in bitcoin — 12.9% against 14.4%, in ether 30.6% against 31.4%. This camp contradicts the whales: the crowd holds long, the whales short, and the whales' long share shrank further. The gap in bitcoin widened by 1.4 points, to 52.9 — by our daily measurement the widest in a month; in ether 42.6 against 41.7.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market. On OKX swaps only $65k was liquidated over the day, 86% of it longs, against $2.8M yesterday, mostly shorts; that is 1% of the week's liquidations. Among the addresses of the morning sample on Hyperliquid the exchange partially closed one small long. This camp is silent: almost nobody was forced out over the day.
Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer
The classic altseason index is 44.9 out of 100 on a list of 214 alts against 44.3 yesterday on a list of 237; the lists differ, so the comparison is rough. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.
Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 40.6% — $4.56B of $11.25B against 39.7% yesterday.
Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's make up 57.4% of open interest against 48.1% yesterday. This measure swings between extremes from one day to the next, so we don't treat a difference like this as a move.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 75.0% long against 75.6% yesterday.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 26.1% long across $1.13B of positions, the largest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — over the day the whales' long share rose by 0.5 points, from 25.6%.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short in bitcoin: the registry's short is 6.7 times the long against 5.9 yesterday, while price is down 0.5% from yesterday's snapshot. The witnesses: the crowd stands against the whales, and the gap is the widest in a month; options side with the whales, but weakly; futures and stress are silent, the funds have no data.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a fall: the registry's shorts shrank over the day, and the tilt grew only because longs were leaving. And the near fuel now sits mostly above the price: a push up has something to pick up in the first 2%, a push down almost nothing. This is about the range of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of a move in either direction.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• where the liquidation line now lies for the one who closed his short at a profit and opened one twice as big, and how large the account behind it is;
• the structure of the day in ether: what price for tomorrow it requires and how much it loses if ether doesn't get there.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
💎DEEP
🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠
Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 04:46 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 04:46 snapshots, in coins; the moves of individual addresses come from the trade records. Distance to liquidation is from the header spot. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.
The long that took the place of the one who gave up has left on his own. Yesterday at the snapshot — LONG 248.7BTC ($20.1M) at 40× from $80,238, liquidation at $79,252, uPnL +$165k. At 09:14–09:15 UTC the owner sold all 248.7BTC at $80,110–80,166, −$25k — 15 hours after entry. The overnight low, $79,347 at 01:46, passed $95 from his line: had he held, he would have been just those $95 short of a forced close. In the same minute, at 09:14–09:15, another address closed its own 40× long — 64.4BTC with its line at $79,360 — at $80,111–80,123, +$15k, and flipped to short: this morning SHORT 63.7BTC ($5.1M) from $80,078, liquidation at $80,839 — 1.0% above the market. Whether this is one owner, the data doesn't show.
The one who gave up on his long the day before yesterday is now the largest short line above the market. Yesterday at the snapshot — SHORT 200BTC from $80,655, liquidation at $88,366. At 11:21–11:30 UTC he closed all 200BTC at $80,395–80,400, +$51k, and at 18:40–21:56 opened a new short — 400BTC at $80,222–80,650. This morning SHORT 400BTC ($32.0M) at 30× from $80,432, uPnL +$197k, liquidation at $83,907 — 4.8% above spot; the account holds $2.0M against $1.6M yesterday. That is $32.0M of the $46.2M of short lines within 5%. In three days he has gone from LONG 500BTC through a sale at a loss and SHORT 200 to SHORT 400.
The new 40× short — the line is nearer, the account more than halved. Yesterday — SHORT 229.7BTC from $80,766, liquidation at $81,850; the day's high, $80,928 at 04:56 UTC yesterday, stopped 1.1% short of it. Over the day the account opened 985BTC of short and closed 1,100, +$18k; opened and closed 791BTC of long, −$98k; overnight another 3,430 ETH of long within an hour, −$84k. Across the trades −$164k in total. This morning SHORT 114.6BTC ($9.2M) from $79,633, liquidation at $80,655 — 0.8% above spot, the nearest line above the market; the account holds $0.20M against $0.45M, effective leverage about 46×.
Who bought near the low. At 02:05 UTC, 19 minutes after the overnight low, an account holding $3.5M opened LONG 150BTC ($12.0M) at 40× at $79,783–79,827; thanks to the large account the liquidation line is far away — $29,617. Before that, overnight, it opened and closed a 125BTC short, +$10k, and a 10,000 ETH short, −$39k. Another account grew its 40× BTC LONG from 133.7 to 219.5BTC ($17.5M) from $80,252 and its ether long from 32 to 1,951 ETH; the account's effective leverage is about 5×.
The longs that remain under the market. The second 40× long from yesterday's fuel — 190BTC against 210, average entry $79,878 against $80,522, that is, part of it was re-bought lower; liquidation at $77,839 — 2.7% under spot, yesterday $78,585. The third big long added: BTC LONG 333.2BTC ($26.6M) at 40× from $82,109, uPnL −$0.72M, liquidation at $76,740 — 4.1% under the market; yesterday 304.5BTC. The same account grew its ether long from 4,028 to 5,528 ETH ($12.8M) at 25×, liquidation at $2,199 — 5.2% under the market. Together these two bitcoin longs are $41.8M of the $46.9M of long fuel within 5%.
Forced closure among the addresses of the morning sample in BTC/ETH — one, partial. The 40× bitcoin LONG that had 14.3BTC force-closed the day before yesterday (24.10) lost another 3.3BTC by force at 01:44 UTC at $79,500–79,506, −$6k — two minutes before the day's low. This morning LONG 13.2BTC with its line at $79,274 — 0.9% under the market; the account holds $22k, effective leverage about 48×. The address that entered the sample the night before last and also lost part of its long by force the day before yesterday (24.10) traded on its own this time: this morning LONG 8.6BTC with its line at $79,015.
Ether: the big long unchanged, the loss deepening. LONG 48,500 ETH ($112.2M) at 10× from $2,610, uPnL −$14.4M against −$11.8M yesterday; liquidation at $2,169 — 6.5% under the market; ether's overnight low was 5.7% above it. The account holds $9.1M against $11.2M. Yesterday's new long of 5,104 ETH at 15× has been closed in full: by the trades 7,440 ETH sold and 2,336 re-bought, −$48k in total. The account that grew its ether short 2.6 times the day before yesterday cut it yesterday from 18,123 to 10,430 ETH ($24.1M), and grew its bitcoin long from 105.2 to 218.1BTC ($17.4M).
The largest short house. Two addresses: BTC SHORT $210.1M from $76,331, uPnL −$9.5M, and BTC SHORT $201.1M from $78,114, uPnL −$4.6M; ETH SHORT $246.1M and $151.5M — in ether now in profit. Together the unrealised loss is $8.9M against $23.4M yesterday. Their $411.2M make up 53.7% of the registry's bitcoin short side against 53.1% yesterday; the positions barely changed over the day. The account that doubled its short on 23.10 trimmed it by 58.8BTC: SHORT 1,186.3 BTC ($94.8M) at 25× from $81,769, uPnL +$2.17M, liquidation at $93,174 — 16.4% above the market. The largest gain among bitcoin and ether positions — ETH LONG $70.0M at 20× from $2,134, uPnL +$5.40M against +$7.07M yesterday.
Case No. 1213 · the structure of the day — an ether condor for tomorrow. Today at 04:34 UTC, with the ether index at $2,314, one block sold 250 puts at $2,300 and 250 calls at $2,320, and bought 250 puts at $2,220 and 250 calls at $2,380 — all for 27.10, settlement tomorrow at 08:00. Premium received ≈3.15ETH — about $7.3k. Full gain only if ether settles between $2,300 and $2,320; outside ≈$2,271–2,349 the package is in loss; the largest possible loss — ≈$12.7k, if ether is below $2,220. The snapshot caught spot at $2,320 — exactly at the upper edge; ether's whole-book gamma flip is also $2,320, and the overnight low, $2,293, was below the package's corridor.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-27 expiry. The whale received $7k in premium. Breakeven: $2,271 and $2,349.
Case No. 1214 · a call spread 10 minutes after the low. At 01:56 UTC, with the bitcoin index at $79,690, 200 calls at $90,000 bought and 200 at $95,000 sold, both for 27.11; ≈0.94BTC paid — about $75k. The package pays above ≈$90,380 — 12.9% above spot; the largest gain, ≈$0.93M, at $95,000 and above.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-27 expiry. The whale paid $75k in premium. Breakeven: $90,376.
Cases in the registry — 2 new (above), none closed; 186 open. Case No. 1212 · BTC, a put diagonal: 23 puts at $77,000 for 13.11 sold, 23 puts at $80,000 for 26.03.2027 bought. The sold strike is 3.8% under spot against 4.3% yesterday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-13 expiry. The whale paid $124k in premium. No breakeven inside the range shown.
Case No. 1197 · BTC: 500 calls at $90,000 bought, 500 at $95,000 sold, both for 06.11. The lower strike is 12.5% above spot against 11.9% yesterday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-06 expiry. The whale paid $183k in premium. Breakeven: $90,365.
Case No. 1081 · a BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026, premium ≈9.61BTC received. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 5.5% against this position — yesterday it was 6.0%.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-30 expiry. The whale received $729k in premium. Breakeven: $76,290.
The tape outside the case registry. In bitcoin at 14:22–14:23 UTC 200 puts at $79,500 for today bought, ≈0.68BTC, and 200 puts at $79,000 for tomorrow, ≈0.90BTC. At 23:56–23:57 two blocks sold 100 calls at $81,000 for 06.11, ≈2.2BTC received. At 01:22–01:25 — two put spreads for 25.12, 25 in each: puts at $76,000 bought, $68,000 sold, 50 and 50 in total, ≈1.1BTC. At 02:38–02:39 — two more put spreads for 25.12, sold, 12.5 each: $72,000 puts sold, $68,000 bought, ≈0.11BTC received for each. At 01:47, a minute after the low, 100 calls at $81,000 for 27.10 bought, ≈0.29BTC. At 04:17–04:18 100 puts at $78,000 for 30.10 sold, ≈0.59BTC received. In ether at 03:50, four minutes before ether's low — a put butterfly for 26.03.2027: 125 puts at $2,300 and 125 at $1,400 bought, 250 at $2,000 sold, ≈0.5ETH. ΔOI over the week:BTC: −3,098 calls at $95,000, 99% on 30.10; −2,613 calls at $100,000, all on 30.10; +1,898 calls at $82,000, across 11 expiries. ETH: +19,507 calls at $2,500, across 12 expiries; +13,857 puts at $2,400, 76% on 30.10 and today; +12,986 puts at $2,200, 66% on today.
🔬Who exactly
The largest short house is Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): two addresses, $411.2M of bitcoin short together and $397.6M in ether, $8.9M of unrealised loss.
The account that doubled its short on 23.10 is the address with the self-assigned name VBVIT. A self-assigned name isn't identification.
The account that cut its ether short by 42% and doubled its bitcoin long is the address with the Arkham label Wintermute, a market maker. A market maker's position may be a hedge, so we don't take a direction from it.
The address with the Arkham label Fasanara Capital cut its bitcoin short again — from 212.7 to 123.7BTC ($9.9M) — and added slightly to its ether one — from 25,283 to 26,130 ETH ($60.4M) at 25× from $2,461, uPnL +$3.88M.
The rest of the portraits above — the long that left on his own, the one who gave up and is now short, the 40× short, the buyer near the low, the longs under the market, the big ether long and the force-closed one — carry no public Arkham labels; several of them have self-assigned names, but we don't use those.
Money by address. The largest deposit over the day — 304ETH ($0.71M) from Binance at 08:11 UTC; another 2,751 SOL ($0.28M) and 335 ZEC ($0.40M) — also from Binance. The sample address that grew its bitcoin and ether longs brought in $0.30M USDC at 20:18. The largest withdrawal — $2.0M USDC at 02:34 to a private address; $1.16M USDC — to an OKX deposit address in two tranches, at 01:50 and 04:19. The week's $10.0M USDC withdrawal dated 19.10 went to an address we haven't checked.
🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬
Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days, between the 19.10 and 26.10 snapshots at 04:46 UTC, on 116 addresses: BTC — about $82M into the short, ETH — about $23M into the short; across all addresses of both snapshots — about $109M and about $22M into the short. Yesterday the weekly window gave about $138M and about $36M on the constant set: over the week the whales keep adding to the short, but in this window noticeably less than in yesterday's.
Gamma flip.BTC across the whole book at the snapshot — $79,042 against $79,216 yesterday, spot 1.2% above it (what the flip is). The near flips, from the calculation at 05:17 UTC — $80,403 at 2 days and $80,099–80,296 at 7–60 days — are all above spot, for the third day running. ETH across the whole book $2,320 against $2,332 — spot exactly on it; at 2 days $2,342, at 7–60 days $2,376–2,384 — above the market for at least a tenth day.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +5.7 against +5.6 yesterday: IV38.3 against the actual weekly HV 32.6.
🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠
BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Today's expiry 26.10 is a daily one, at 08:00 UTC, after this snapshot: max pain$80,500 across the combined book, on Deribit and on Bybit (what max pain is); put $78,000 (330 contracts), call $83,000 (290) (what the walls are) — the expiry is small. The market-maker corridor for today — $79,500–81,500, spot inside it, 0.7% above the lower edge. 30.10: max pain$78,000 across the combined book and on Deribit, $82,000 on Bybit; put wall $70,000 (4,389), call wall $95,000 (19,951). 30.10 holds 35% of all bitcoin contracts, 25.12 — 34%.
ETH levels. 26.10: max pain$2,340 across the combined book, $2,380 on Deribit, $2,340 on Bybit; put $2,200 (9,005), call $2,500 (3,785). The market-maker corridor — $2,300–2,420, spot inside it. 30.10: max pain$2,500 across the combined book and on Deribit, $2,450 on Bybit; put wall $2,300 (25,682), call wall $2,600 (37,612).
Fuel. Lines from the 04:46 UTC snapshot, distances from the header spot. Under BTC within 5% — $46.9M of long lines against $82.3M yesterday; above it — $46.2M of shorts against $26.2M. Between the market and −2% — only $3.1M of longs against $31.5M; between the market and −1% — $1.9M, two small lines at $79,261 and $79,274. Between the market and +2% — $14.3M of shorts, lines at $80,655 and $80,839; yesterday $20.6M. In ETH under the market within 5% — $1.6M of longs against $1.0M, above the market — $0.5M; the lines of the two big ether longs, $2,199 and $2,169, lie just outside that zone. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).
Gamma vacuum. In BTC there are no empty zones above the market; below it $74,000–75,000 is empty; in ETH — $2,200–2,250.
Stress test ±2%. From the header spot: in bitcoin a 2% fall ($78,427) is under the whole-book flip at $79,042 and under all the near long lines, but still above the line at $77,839; above, +2% ($81,629) is past both near short lines and past all the near flips, but far below the line at $83,907. In ether −2% ($2,274) is under the whole-book flip at $2,320; +2% ($2,367) is above the two-day flip at $2,342, but under the 7–60-day flips.
OI flow.BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.52 · week 0.60 · now 0.60. ETH0.53 · 0.51 · 0.50 (what put/call is).
Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days BTC put/call is 0.56 on Deribit against 1.22 on Bybit; ETH0.87 and 0.79.
IV by tenor.BTC 2d P36/C33 · 4d P37/C34 · 32d P40/C35, percentiles since February for the 4- and 32-day — 31st and 40th; the two-day is in the cross-check above. ETH 2d P52/C46 · 4d P52/C48 · 32d P54/C50, percentiles 50th, 41st and 41st. Day to day we compare only the two-day tenor: yesterday BTC P33, ETH P49. BTCDVOL38.3 against 30-day realised HV31.2 — a premium of +7.1 against +7.6; ETHDVOL53.0 against HV46.7 — +6.3 against +7.5 (what the premium is).
💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠
The code's verdicts. From 24.10: "The corridor holds" (rated 50%) — confirmed: bitcoin was inside it 94% of the time; "Slide into the long fuel" (30%) — confirmed: the $79,314 low against the $79,400 level. From 23.10, closed yesterday at 06:24 UTC: "The corridor holds" (50%) — confirmed, 98% of the time; "Slide into the long fuel" (25%) — confirmed: the $79,325 low against the $79,990 level. Those from 25.10 stay open until 27.10; no trigger has been touched yet.
The all-time tally (N counts only those that reached a verdict): squeeze up through the short fuel — 18 of 43, 20 more cancelled at their level; corridor — 29 of 56 plus 16 partial, 5 more cancelled; slide into the long fuel — 19 of 37, 17 more cancelled. The directional types are still no better than a coin toss.
The corridor holds — 45%. ⏱ 2 days, to 28.10. BTC stays between $78,900 and $81,000 — from −1.4% to +1.2% of the header spot. At the bottom the corridor ends right under the whole-book gamma flip at $79,042; at the top — above both near short lines, $80,655 and $80,839. Cancellation level: a touch of $77,700 — under the line of the second 40× long, $77,839.
Squeeze up through the short fuel — 30%. ⏱ 2 days, to 28.10. Trigger: a touch of $81,000 — above the lines at $80,655 and $80,839, that is, above the $14.3M of short lines within 2%, and above all the near gamma flips. The next big line — $83,907. Cancellation level: a touch of $78,900.
Slide under the gamma flip — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 28.10. Trigger: a touch of $78,900 — under the whole-book gamma flip, where dealers stop damping the move and start amplifying it. There is little long fuel on the way; further down — the lines at $77,839 and $76,740 and the empty zone $74,000–75,000. Cancellation level: a touch of $81,000.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.
🔭WHAT TO WATCH
• The 40× short with its line at $80,655 — 0.8% above the market; the account more than halved over the day (💠).
• The $83,907 line of the one who gave up on his long the day before yesterday and now holds SHORT 400BTC — 4.8% above the market (💠).
• The long the exchange has already partially closed twice: its line at $79,274, 0.9% under the market (💠).
• The ether condor: settlement tomorrow at 08:00 UTC against the $2,300–2,320 corridor (💠).
🆓TAIL
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel(the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
+$8 on the day · +$6,378 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 534%−$1,125+$74,969 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 437%−$1,125+$23,559 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 4134%−$454+$9,803 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 5131%−$789+$4,801 26.05
Fear Flash V3 1225%−$240+$1,526 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098 · Wheel Trail V6 −$8,829 · Wheel Trail V7 −$7,744 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs. Over Sunday no trade in the top five closed, so the table is the same as yesterday; the Pendulum made $8 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 53 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 464 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 379 times — 82%; yesterday's daily expiries in both coins also settled inside the corridor, ether right at the edge. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 171 of those same 464 expiries, 37%; yesterday's daily expiry — no in bitcoin and no in ether. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 116, 42%. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 888 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 881 with a score, −$18.92M in total for the whales. Case No. 1210 the code closed at the first expiry in the black, and the second leg settled at a loss — that isn't in this sum yet. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$6,378 since 11.05 with +$8 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 42 out of 100 against 46 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself.BTC two-day vol — 42nd percentile of the hourly history since February, four-day — 31st, 32 days out — 40th: insurance is still cheaper than usual on every tenor, but the nearest has been getting dearer for a second day running.
• Which way protection tilts.BTCskew+4.6: puts dearer than calls, a little less so than yesterday's +4.8. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.