The biggest dip buyer gave up an hour before the day's low and had turned short by eveningwhile on Deribit December puts kept being bought: insurance against a deep fall is being taken although price barely moved over the day.
Case No. 20261025 · 25.10.2026 06:03 UTC · BTC$80,427 / ETH$2,345 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
Saturday's daily expiry 24.10 settled at 08:00 UTC: bitcoin at $80,705, inside the market-maker corridor $80,500–84,500 fixed a day before expiry, near its lower edge; max pain$82,500 didn't match. Ether at $2,375, also inside its corridor; max pain didn't match. The registry took in this expiry — it now holds 462. No new closed cases, still 888; but in one of those that closed on Friday the sold leg settled yesterday below its strike, and the plus the code recorded for it has become a minus at settlement prices — details below (💠).
Of the positions yesterday's radar said to watch: the bigger of the two longs bought on the dip sold everything himself, at a loss, an hour before the day's low — with over 3% still left to his line; the second is holding. Price passed three near long lines during the day: two accounts managed to cut and re-buy lower on their own, the third had part of its position force-closed by the exchange — as did two more small longs on the way to the low. The account that doubled its bitcoin short the day before yesterday barely changed over the day.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is down 0.5% and ether 1.5%. Over the day bitcoin moved within 2.3%; the low on the Hyperliquid perp was $79,184 yesterday at 15:25 UTC; ether undercut the low of the day before by 2.9%.
• The bigger dip buyer gave up: he sold the whole position at a loss an hour before the low, and in the evening opened a short. In his place under the market a new 40× long came in and another one added, so the long fuel within 5% of the price is almost as much as yesterday — $82.3M against $83.9M.
• Above the price, for the first time in several days, there is short fuel: within 2% — $20.6M of short lines, almost all of it one new 40× short; yesterday there was nothing in that band. Long lines within the same 2% under the price — $31.5M.
• On Deribit insurance against a deep fall keeps being bought: yesterday afternoon another 11 blocks of December puts went through — after four overnight the night before. The nearest protection got dearer: BTC two-day vol sits in the 31st percentile since February against the 6th yesterday.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳: the whales in bitcoin barely moved over the day — the registry's short is 5.9 times the long against 5.8 yesterday — while the crowd is still long, and the gap between them widened by 1.2 points.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, −$1,158 on the day, +$6,370 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$74,969 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098. Table at the bottom.
🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas
Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change in coins between the 04:46 UTC snapshots — on the constant set and on all addresses of both snapshots (how we track whale positions). In BTC on the constant set — 125 addresses — both longs and shorts shrank: longs by 258BTC, shorts by 294. The tilt moved toward long by only about $2.9M — that is, it barely moved. Longs were cut above all by the bigger of yesterday's dip buyers, who flipped to short; shorts — by one large account that cut its bitcoin short by more than half. Across all addresses — about $8.0M toward long: new accounts at 40× entered the sample on both sides. In ETH on the constant set shorts grew by 3,316 ETH and longs by 967: a tilt toward short of about $5.6M. One account more than doubled its ether short over the day, another added to its own as well; two others cut or closed their shorts entirely — among them the short opened the day before yesterday ten minutes before ether's low. Across all addresses — about $6.6M toward long: a new large ether long entered the sample. Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — at the 04:46 UTC snapshot: BTC long $132.1M against a short of $784.5M, yesterday — $135.9M and $789.2M. The short is 5.9 times the long against 5.8 yesterday. ETH — $304.4M against $665.5M, the long share 31.4% against 30.2%. Overleveraged whales number 67 against 60 yesterday, their positions total $1,059.1M against $1,083.8M, 52% of it longs. Among the addresses of the morning sample the exchange force-closed part of three small longs — one in ether and two in bitcoin, all yesterday at 14:16–15:25 UTC, on the way to the low; the big positions closed on their own.
Arena two — Deribit options. Over Saturday and Sunday morning, in the two-day window, 21 structures were recognised in bitcoin and 8 in ether — against 54 and 30 in yesterday's window: fewer blocks at the weekend. The most notable in bitcoin — buying of protection that didn't stop for four hours: at 13:01–17:05 UTC, 11 blocks of December puts, after four blocks overnight the night before. And at 15:13, 12 minutes before the day's low, the day's largest block went through — a put ratio spread for the end of December: more puts sold lower than bought higher. Such a package pays most on a moderate fall; on a crash it loses. In ether at 14:26–14:30 UTC, less than an hour before the low, protection against a fall was bought for today and for tomorrow; at 14:47–15:27 — the opposite, three blocks that pay most if ether has risen by the end of November. Quiet accumulation outside the blocks over the week (what a block is): in bitcoin calls far above the market for 30.10 are being unwound, while near the market both calls and puts are being built up, across many expiries. In ether calls above the market and puts below it have grown — positions in both directions.
Arena three — money at the exchange border. The last transfer above $250k in the snapshot was today at 06:02 UTC. Over seven days $46.2M was brought into the exchange and $29.4M taken out: $16.8M more arrived than left, against $16.5M yesterday. In the day since yesterday's snapshot $5.8M came in and $4.8M went out: after two days of withdrawals the border has turned back to deposits. The day's largest deposit was in bitcoin, the largest withdrawal in USDC. In the weekly window $16.3M more bitcoin arrived than left; ether — $2.5M more; SOL — $2.0M; of USDC cash, $2.8M more left than arrived, of ZEC — $1.2M.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses
What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position. There are no fresh figures: the SoSoValue data source hasn't answered since 09.10, the latest are for Thursday 08.10. Besides, today is Sunday and the funds don't trade. This camp is silent: no data.
What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book. BTCskew is +4.8 against +4.6 yesterday — puts got slightly dearer relative to calls (what skew is). In ETH+3.0 against +3.8. BTC two-day vol sits in the 31st percentile since February against the 6th yesterday; ETH — in the 40th against the 8th (what implied vol is). Our fear-and-greed index stands at 46 out of 100 against 55 yesterday — still the neutral zone, but closer to fear. This camp confirms the whales, but weakly: protection got dearer both in price and relative to calls, and the big blocks yesterday bought precisely December puts; there is no fear yet, though — the nearest vol has only come back closer to normal.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position. BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.010% in eight-hour terms, as yesterday; on Binance +0.007%, also as yesterday (what funding is). In ETH+0.010% on Hyperliquid against +0.003%, and +0.006% on Binance against +0.004%. This camp is silent: longs pay the usual price, in ether it has simply come back to usual; nobody is overpaying on either side.
What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales. On Bybit perps at 05:27 UTC 65.9% of BTC accounts stand long against 65.0% yesterday; in ETH73.1% against 72.6%. The whales' long share in bitcoin — 14.4% against 14.7%, in ether 31.4% against 30.2%. This camp contradicts the whales: the crowd holds long and added a little, the whales — short. The gap in bitcoin widened by 1.2 points, to 51.5; in ether it narrowed to 41.7.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market. On OKX swaps $2.8M was liquidated over the day, 69% of it shorts, against $0.85M yesterday, all longs; that is 35% of the week's liquidations. Among the addresses of the morning sample on Hyperliquid the exchange partially closed three small longs. This camp is silent: both sides were forced out — on OKX more shorts, in our sample only small longs; the big positions of this day closed on their own.
Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer
The classic altseason index is 44.3 out of 100 on a list of 237 alts against 41.8 yesterday on a list of 263; the lists differ, so the comparison is rough. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.
Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 39.7% — $4.62B of $11.63B against 40.5% yesterday.
Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's make up 48.1% of open interest against 34.9% yesterday. This measure swings between extremes from one day to the next, so we don't treat a difference like this as a move.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 75.6% long against 75.4% yesterday.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 25.6% long across $1.15B of positions, the largest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — over the day the whales' long share rose by 1.7 points, from 23.9%.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short in bitcoin and didn't change it over the day: the registry's short is 5.9 times the long against 5.8 yesterday, while price is down 0.5% from yesterday's snapshot. The witnesses: the crowd stands against the whales; options side with the whales, but weakly; futures and stress are silent, the funds have no data.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a fall: the whales didn't add to their bitcoin short over the day, and the day's largest block in options is built so that it loses on a crash. The long fuel under the market means a bigger range of a move down for the same push, not a higher probability of that move — and now there is short fuel above the market too, so a push up also has something to pick up.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• who holds the line nearest to the market above the price, and who came in under the market in place of the one who gave up: where their lines lie;
• the structure of the day: the premium, the expiry and the point below which it starts losing.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
💎DEEP
🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠
Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 04:46 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 04:46 snapshots, in coins; the moves of individual addresses come from the trade records. Distance to liquidation is from the header spot. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.
The bigger dip buyer gave up — and flipped. Yesterday at the snapshot — LONG 500BTC ($40.4M) at 30× from $81,676, liquidation at $77,525. At 14:18–14:24 UTC the owner sold all 500BTC at $80,006–80,282, −$778k — an hour before the day's low and 3.1–3.4% above his line. From 22:35 he was opening a SHORT, up to 200BTC at $80,500–80,836. This morning SHORT 200BTC ($16.2M) at 30× from $80,655, uPnL −$49k, liquidation at $88,366 — 9.9% above the market. The account shrank over the day from $2.2M to $1.6M. A new 40× short — the nearest line above the market. SHORT 229.7BTC ($18.6M) from $80,766, liquidation at $81,850 — 1.8% above the header spot; the account holds $0.45M, effective leverage about 41×. The account is very active: over the day it opened 790BTC of short and closed 561, +$5k; at 23:08–01:04 UTC it managed to open and close 379BTC of long, −$12k. Bitcoin's overnight high, $81,014 at 03:20, stopped 1.0% short of its line. Next to it — a smaller SHORT of 25BTC at 40× with its line at $81,261, 1.0% above the market: together $20.6M of short lines within 2%. Who came in where the one who gave up had stood. The account that sold everything at a loss on 23.10 bought 248.7BTC yesterday at 17:51–17:54 UTC at $80,193–80,264: LONG $20.1M at 40×, liquidation at $79,252 — 1.5% under the header spot, the largest long line within 2%. Another 40× long added 135BTC at $79,315–80,532 at 09:26–16:21 UTC, some of it near the low — from 75 to 210BTC: this morning $17.0M from $80,522, uPnL +$80k, liquidation at $78,585 — 2.3% under the market. The third big long from yesterday's fuel — BTC LONG 304.5 ($24.6M) at 40× from $82,333, liquidation at $77,028 — 4.2% under the market, didn't move over the day. Together these three are $61.7M of the $82.3M of long fuel within 5%. Ether: the big long added margin. The largest ether long at 10× — LONG 48,500 ETH ($114.8M) from $2,610, uPnL −$11.8M. Yesterday ether reached $2,281 at 15:19 UTC — 1.1% above this account's liquidation line at the time, $2,256. This morning the account is $2.8M bigger with uPnL $0.65M worse — that is, the owner added about $3.5M of margin, and the line has moved out to $2,182, 7.0% under the market. Among the transfers above $250k across the exchange border this address isn't seen — probably a transfer inside Hyperliquid. Ether shorts. The account that cut its ether short the day before yesterday grew it 2.6 times over the day: from 6,917 to 18,123 ETH — SHORT $42.9M at 15× from $2,348, liquidation at $4,021; the account holds $34.9M, effective leverage about 3×. The 7,500 ETH short from the day before yesterday, opened ten minutes before ether's low, has been closed in full. The ether short that grew out of a long's flip on 22.10 shrank from 10,559 to 5,911 ETH. The address that flipped to long at ether's low the day before yesterday added: from 2,000 to 6,500 ETH — LONG $15.4M at 25× from $2,324, liquidation at $2,137. New in the sample — LONG 5,104 ETH ($12.1M) at 15× from $2,332, liquidation at $1,939. Forced closures among the addresses of the morning sample — three, all partial. The ether LONG that had 90ETH force-closed at the low the day before yesterday lost another 314ETH by force yesterday at 14:16–15:16 UTC at $2,290–2,334, −$44k; this morning it is LONG 115ETH again, with its line at $2,317 — 1.2% under the market. A 40× bitcoin LONG lost 14.3BTC at $79,300–80,113, −$33k; by morning again LONG 16.5BTC with its line at $79,500. Another 40× LONG — an address that entered the sample only overnight — at 15:10–15:25, right at the low, lost 21.2BTC at $79,215–79,555, −$30k; by morning again LONG 28.8BTC with its line at $79,609. The largest short house. Two addresses: BTC SHORT $213.4M from $76,327, uPnL −$12.1M, and BTC SHORT $203.5M from $78,114, uPnL −$7.0M; ETH SHORT $252.0M and $156.6M. Together with ether the unrealised loss is $23.4M against $25.5M yesterday. Their $416.9M make up 53.1% of the registry's bitcoin short side against 52.8% yesterday. The account that doubled its short the day before yesterday trimmed it by only 5.9BTC over the day: SHORT 1,245.1 BTC ($100.7M) at 25× from $81,781, uPnL +$1.10M, liquidation at $92,010 — 14.4% above the market. The largest gain among bitcoin and ether positions — ETH LONG $71.7M at 20× from $2,134, uPnL +$7.07M.
The structure of the day — a put ratio spread 12 minutes before the low. Yesterday at 15:13 UTC, with the bitcoin index at $79,747, one block sold 1,100 puts at $72,000 and bought 700 puts at $75,000, both for 25.12; premium received ≈2.5BTC — about $0.2M. If on 25.12 bitcoin is above $75,000, the package keeps only that premium. It pays most — ≈$2.3M — exactly at $72,000; below that the 400 extra sold puts start eating into the gain, and below ≈$66,250 — 17.6% under the current spot — the package is in loss. It isn't built for a crash: on a crash it loses. Next to it — a wave of December puts. At 13:01–17:05 UTC — 11 blocks buying puts for 25.12: 500 at $75,000 and 350 at $70,000, ≈23.2BTC of premium paid together. With the four overnight blocks the night before — 1,250 December puts in 16 hours, ≈34BTC of premium.
Cases in the registry — none new, none closed; 184 open. Case No. 1210 · BTC, a put ratio spread — closed by the code at the 23.10 expiry in the black, +$12.8k on the bought leg, 20 puts at $82,000 for 23.10. The sold leg — 30 puts at $81,500 for 24.10 — settled yesterday at $80,705, $795 below the strike. At the settlement prices of both expiries the case comes to ≈ −$11.1k together. The code has already recorded its verdict and doesn't recompute; the registry's tally still shows +$12.8k.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-23 expiry. The whale received $5k in premium. Breakeven: $80,034.
Case No. 1212 · BTC, a put diagonal: 23 puts at $77,000 for 13.11 sold, 23 puts at $80,000 for 26.03.2027 bought. The sold strike is 4.3% under spot against 4.7% yesterday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-13 expiry. The whale paid $124k in premium. No breakeven inside the range shown.
Case No. 1197 · BTC: 500 calls at $90,000 bought, 500 at $95,000 sold, both for 06.11. The lower strike is 11.9% above spot against 11.4% yesterday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-06 expiry. The whale paid $183k in premium. Breakeven: $90,365.
Case No. 1081 · a BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026, premium ≈9.61BTC received. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 6.0% against this position — yesterday it was 6.5%.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-30 expiry. The whale received $729k in premium. Breakeven: $76,290.
The tape outside the case registry. In bitcoin at 14:18 UTC — two blocks for today's daily expiry: together 196 calls at $80,000 sold, 196 puts at $80,000 and 196 calls at $81,000 bought, ≈0.35BTC paid — it pays if at 08:00 today bitcoin is below $80,000. At 14:55 — a put spread for 06.11: 100 puts at $76,000 bought, 100 at $70,000 sold, ≈0.79BTC. In the evening, at 18:58, 100 calls at $81,500 for 27.10 bought, ≈0.6BTC; overnight, at 00:48 — a call spread for 27.11: 80 calls at $90,000 bought, 80 at $100,000 sold, ≈0.62BTC. In ether at 14:26–14:30 — 2,000 puts at $2,280 for today's expiry, ≈6.5ETH, and two put spreads for 26.10, $2,280 against $2,200, 1,000 each, ≈7.0ETH — less than an hour later ether reached $2,281; at 14:47–15:27 — three sales of $2,500/2,400 put spreads for 27.11, 200 each, two of them with 50 calls at $3,500 for 25.12 attached, ≈16.4ETH of premium received together. ΔOI over the week:BTC: −3,061 calls at $95,000, 99% on 30.10; −2,609 calls at $100,000, all on 30.10; +2,403 contracts at $82,000 — 1,381 calls and 1,022 puts, across 10 expiries. ETH: +22,192 calls at $2,500, 45% on 30.10; +16,162 contracts at $2,400 — 9,318 puts and 6,844 calls; +14,034 puts at $2,100, 42% on 06.11.
🔬Who exactly
The largest short house is Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): two addresses, $416.9M of bitcoin short together and $408.6M in ether, $23.4M of unrealised loss.
The account that doubled its short the day before yesterday is the address with the self-assigned name VBVIT. A self-assigned name isn't identification.
The account that cut its bitcoin short by more than half is the address with the Arkham label Fasanara Capital: BTC SHORT from 550.2 to 212.7 ($17.2M), while its ether short went the other way — from 21,727 to 25,283 ETH ($59.9M) at 25× from $2,470, uPnL +$2.59M. At 00:49 UTC it brought $0.83M USDC into the exchange.
The account that grew its ether short 2.6 times is the address with the Arkham label Wintermute — a market maker; it grew its bitcoin long over the day from 73.4 to 105.2BTC. A market maker's position may be a hedge, so we don't take a direction from it.
The rest of the portraits above — the dip buyer who flipped to short, the new 40× short, the longs that came in under the market, the big ether long and the force-closed ones — carry no public Arkham labels; several of them have self-assigned names, but we don't use those.
Money by address. The largest deposit — 35.6BTC ($2.9M) from Binance at 18:03 UTC; another $0.74M in ether and $0.58M in SOL — also from Binance. The largest withdrawal — $1.9M USDC to a Binance deposit address in two tranches, at 09:15 and 10:00; $1.0M USDC — to an OKX deposit address in two tranches, at 05:55 and 19:08; $1.0M USDC at 15:22 — to an address we haven't checked; $0.89M USDC at 02:57 — to an address with the DeBank label "Bankman".
🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬
Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days, between the 18.10 and 25.10 snapshots at 04:46 UTC, on 116 addresses: BTC — about $138M into the short, ETH — about $36M into the short; across all addresses of both snapshots — about $134M and about $33M into the short. Yesterday the weekly window across all addresses gave about $167M and about $6M into the short: the bitcoin short in the weekly window is a fifth smaller than yesterday, while the ether one is growing again — Wintermute and Fasanara are adding it.
Gamma flip. From the snapshot: BTC across the whole book $79,216 against $79,406 yesterday — spot 1.5% above it (what the flip is). The near flips, from the calculation at 06:13 UTC — $81,124 at 2 days and $80,475–80,750 at 7–60 days — are all above spot, for the second day running. ETH across the whole book $2,332 against $2,357 — spot at $2,345 is 0.6% above it; at 2–60 days $2,374–2,385 — above the market for at least a ninth day.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +5.6 against +4.6 yesterday: IV38.0 against the actual weekly HV 32.4, the difference computed from unrounded numbers.
🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠
BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Today's expiry 25.10 is a daily one, at 08:00 UTC, after this snapshot: max pain$81,000 across the combined book and on Deribit, $80,750 on Bybit (what max pain is); put $80,000 (371 contracts), call $81,500 (283) (what the walls are) — the expiry is small. The market-maker corridor for today — $80,000–82,000, spot inside it, 0.5% above the lower edge. 30.10: max pain$78,000 across the combined book and on Deribit, $82,000 on Bybit; put wall $70,000 (4,389), call wall $95,000 (19,948). 30.10 holds 35% of all bitcoin contracts, 25.12 — 34%.
ETH levels. 25.10: max pain$2,370 across the combined book, $2,400 on Deribit, $2,360 on Bybit; put $2,100 (4,228), call $2,460 (4,167). The market-maker corridor — $2,320–2,440, spot inside it. 30.10: max pain$2,500 across the combined book and on Deribit, $2,475 on Bybit; put wall $2,300 (25,670), call wall $2,600 (37,707).
Fuel. Lines from the 04:46 UTC snapshot, distances from the header spot. Under BTC within 5% — $82.3M of long lines against $83.9M yesterday; above it — $26.2M of shorts against $3.5M. Between the market and −2% — $31.5M of longs, $79,226–79,876, $20.1M of it one line at $79,252; between the market and −1% — only $1.2M. Between the market and +2% — $20.6M of shorts, lines at $81,261 and $81,850; yesterday there wasn't a single one in that band. In ETH under the market within 5% — $1.0M of longs against $0.8M, above the market — $0.5M; the line of the largest ether long, $2,182, lies just outside that zone. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).
Gamma vacuum. In BTC there are no empty zones above the market; below it $75,000–76,000 is empty; in ETH — $2,300–2,350, spot near its upper edge.
Stress test ±2%. From the header spot: in bitcoin a 2% fall ($78,819) is under the whole-book flip at $79,216 and under all $31.5M of near long lines, but still above the line at $78,585; above, +2% ($82,036) is past both near short lines and past all the near flips. In ether −2% ($2,298) is under the whole-book flip at $2,332; +2% ($2,392) is above the near flips at $2,374–2,385.
OI flow.BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.60 · week 0.60 · now 0.60. ETH0.56 · 0.51 · 0.49 (what put/call is).
Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days BTC put/call is 0.56 on Deribit against 1.25 on Bybit; ETH0.88 and 0.81.
IV by tenor.BTC 2d P33/C31 · 5d P35/C32 · 33d P40/C34, percentiles since February for the 5- and 33-day — 21st and 36th; the two-day is in the cross-check above. ETH 2d P49/C43 · 5d P54/C48 · 33d P53/C50, percentiles 40th, 46th and 41st. Day to day we compare only the two-day tenor: yesterday BTC P26, ETH P35. BTCDVOL38.3 against 30-day realised HV30.7 — a premium of +7.6 against +6.6; ETHDVOL53.3 against HV45.8 — +7.5 against +7.0 (what the premium is).
💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠
The code's verdicts. "Slide into the long fuel" from 22.10 (rated 25%) — confirmed: the $80,445 low against the $81,050 level. "The corridor holds" from 22.10 (50%) — partial: bitcoin was inside it 81% of the time. "Bounce past the near flips" from 23.10 (25%) and from 24.10 (20%) — both cancelled at their level: the $79,325 low against the $79,990 and $79,400 levels. The scenarios from 23.10 close at 06:24 UTC — after this snapshot. Those from 24.10 stay open until 26.10; the "Slide" trigger, $79,400, price has already touched.
The all-time tally (N counts only those that reached a verdict): squeeze up through the short fuel — 18 of 43, 20 more cancelled at their level; corridor — 27 of 54 plus 16 partial, 5 more cancelled; slide into the long fuel — 17 of 35, 17 more cancelled. The directional types are still no better than a coin toss.
The corridor holds — 45%. ⏱ 2 days, to 27.10. BTC stays between $79,100 and $81,900 — from −1.6% to +1.8% of the header spot. At the bottom the corridor ends right under the whole-book gamma flip at $79,216 and under the largest near long line at $79,252; at the top — above the line of the new 40× short, $81,850. Cancellation level: a touch of $77,000 — under the line of the third big long, $77,028.
Slide into the long fuel — 30%. ⏱ 2 days, to 27.10. Trigger: a touch of $79,100 — under $31.5M of long lines within 2% and under the whole-book gamma flip, where dealers stop damping the move and start amplifying it. Further down — the line at $78,585, the line at $77,028 and the empty zone $75,000–76,000. Cancellation level: a touch of $81,900.
Squeeze up through the short fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 27.10. Trigger: a touch of $81,900 — above the line of the new 40× short, $81,850, and above all the near gamma flips. Short lines within 2% — $20.6M, so a push up now has something to pick up, unlike yesterday. Cancellation level: a touch of $79,100.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.
🔭WHAT TO WATCH
• The new 40× short with its line at $81,850 — 1.8% above the market; the overnight high stopped 1.0% short of it (💠).
• The 40× long with its line at $79,252 and another $11.3M of longs near $79,226–79,876 — 0.7–1.5% under the market (💠).
• The big ether long after topping up margin: its line at $2,182, 7.0% under the market (💠).
🆓TAIL
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel(the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
−$1,158 on the day · +$6,370 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 534%−$1,125+$74,969 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 437%−$1,125+$23,559 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 4134%−$454+$9,803 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 5131%−$789+$4,801 26.05
Fear Flash V3 1225%−$240+$1,526 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098 · Wheel Trail V6 −$8,829 · Wheel Trail V7 −$7,744 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs; over the day all three won part of the loss back. In the top five one trade closed over the day — Fear Flash V3, −$240; the Pendulum lost $1,158 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 53 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 462 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 377 times — 82%; yesterday's daily expiry also settled inside the corridor. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 171 of those same 462 expiries, 37%; yesterday's daily expiry — no in bitcoin and no in ether. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 115, 43%. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 888 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 881 with a score, −$18.92M in total for the whales. One of them, No. 1210, the code closed at the first expiry, and the second leg settled yesterday at a loss — that isn't in this sum yet. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$6,370 since 11.05 with −$1,158 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 46 out of 100 against 55 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself.BTC two-day vol — 31st percentile of the hourly history since February, five-day — 21st, 33 days out — 36th: insurance is still cheaper than usual on every tenor, but the nearest is no longer almost the cheapest since February, as it was yesterday.
• Which way protection tilts.BTCskew+4.8: puts dearer than calls, a little more so than yesterday's +4.6. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.