Bitcoin spent the day in a 2% band and the whales' short in it still grewthe whole increase, with room to spare, came from one account; under the market, meanwhile, long fuel is 1.8 times yesterday's.
Case No. 20261024 · 24.10.2026 04:50 UTC · BTC$80,791 / ETH$2,380 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
Friday's weekly expiry 23.10 settled at 08:00 UTC: bitcoin at $81,595, inside the market-maker corridor $80,500–84,500 fixed a day before expiry; max pain by the registry, fixed at the same time, was $82,500 — 1.1% from the settlement, not a match. Yesterday's morning radar, a few hours before the expiry, showed a corridor of $81,000–83,500 and max pain at $82,000 — the registry takes what was fixed a day before. Ether settled at $2,402, also inside its corridor, $2,380–2,650, near the lower edge; max pain$2,500 — 4.1% away, not a match. Two cases closed for this expiry, both in the black by the code's count, but in one of them the sold leg stays open until today — details below (💠); closed cases in the registry now number 888.
Of the positions yesterday's radar said to watch: the 40× long with its line right under the market was closed by its owner, at a loss, a few hours before price passed that line — and it won part of the loss back on a short; the three longs bought on the dip were closed by their owners, in full or in part, also at a loss, though price never reached their lines. Ether is back above the whole-book gamma flip — not because it rose, but because the flip came down.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is down 1.0% and ether 0.7%. In between, on the Hyperliquid perp bitcoin went from $82,088 at 14:01 UTC to $80,500 at 23:11 — the whole day's range is 2%; ether's low was $2,349 at 22:53.
• The whales' bitcoin short grew over the day, but the whole increase came from one account: on the constant set of addresses shorts grew by 515BTC, and that account alone added more than that. Without it, the rest of the whales trimmed their short slightly.
• In ether the opposite: shorts were bought back, and the tilt on the constant set moved toward long by about $26M. One account flipped for the second time in two days — this time from short to long, right at ether's low.
• Under the market long fuel is 1.8 times yesterday's: within 5% of bitcoin's price — $83.9M of long liquidation lines against $46.9M yesterday, and more than three quarters of it is two accounts that bought the dip at high leverage. Short lines above the price within the same 5% — only $3.5M.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳: the whales in bitcoin stand short and deepened it, the crowd is still long — the gap between them narrowed by just 1 point.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, −$513 on the day, +$7,528 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$74,969 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,719. Table at the bottom.
🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas
Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change in coins between the 04:46 UTC snapshots — on the constant set and on all addresses of both snapshots (how we track whale positions). In BTC on the constant set — 120 addresses — shorts grew by 515BTC and longs by 145: the tilt moved toward short by about $29.9M. One account added more short than the whole increase, two more opened new shorts, and four closed their shorts or flipped them to long. Across all addresses the shift is bigger — about $42.3M toward short: three longs that gave up and closed over the day left the sample, and the two new ones that entered were smaller. In ETH on the constant set shorts shrank by 10,861 ETH and longs grew by 202 — a tilt toward long of about $26.3M; across all addresses — about $15.3M toward long. The most short was bought back by two accounts, one of which flipped to long; two others added to their ether short, and one opened a new one — ten minutes before ether's low. Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — at the 04:46 UTC snapshot: BTC long $135.9M against a short of $789.2M, yesterday at 05:16 — $139.5M and $754.9M. The short is 5.8 times the long against 5.4 yesterday. ETH — $285.6M against $661.1M, the long share 30.2% against 29.9%. Overleveraged whales number 60 against 61 yesterday, but their positions total $1,083.8M against $871M: the account that doubled its bitcoin short over the day and a large ether long entered the list, while the high-leverage longs that gave up on the fall left it. Among the addresses we track, the exchange force-closed one — a small ether long, right at the low.
Arena two — Deribit options. Over Friday and Saturday morning, in the two-day window, 54 structures were recognised in bitcoin and 30 in ether — against 59 and 22 in yesterday's window. The most notable in bitcoin — twice in the day, at 09:01 and 13:56 UTC, the same block: a straddle bought for 25.12 — calls and puts on one strike near the market. Such a package gains on a big move either way and loses if price stands still until the end of December. At 14:32–14:41 UTC the opposite went through three times — a straddle sold on the same strike, but for mid-November. And overnight, at 01:23–01:47 UTC, puts for the end of December were bought in four blocks — protection against a deep fall in bitcoin. In ether in the morning, at 08:49 and 09:56 UTC, two put spreads were bought — protection against a fall, for 30.10 and for today. Quiet accumulation outside the blocks over the week (what a block is): in bitcoin calls far above the market for 30.10 are being unwound, while calls at the market's level are being built up, across many expiries. In ether both calls slightly above the market and puts at the market's level and below have grown — positions in both directions.
Arena three — money at the exchange border. The last transfer above $250k in the snapshot was today at 01:37 UTC. Over seven days $41.5M was brought into the exchange and $25.0M taken out: $16.5M more arrived than left, against $20.9M yesterday. In the day since yesterday's snapshot there were no deposits above $250k, while $3.5M went out, most of it USDC to an OKX deposit address: for the second day running the border has turned to withdrawals. In the weekly window $13.5M more bitcoin arrived than left; ether — $1.8M more; SOL — $1.7M; USDC cash — $0.6M; of ZEC, $1.2M more left than arrived.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses
What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position. There are no fresh figures: the SoSoValue data source hasn't answered since 09.10, the latest are for Thursday 08.10. This camp is silent: no data.
What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book. BTCskew is +4.6 against +3.4 yesterday — puts got dearer relative to calls (what skew is). In ETH+3.8 against +2.8. BTC two-day vol sits in the 6th percentile since February against the 11th yesterday; ETH — in the 8th against the 15th (what implied vol is). Our fear-and-greed index stands at 55 out of 100 against 56 yesterday — the neutral zone. This camp is silent: overnight a large buyer took December puts, but the price of the nearest protection didn't rise — the nearest vol got even cheaper; puts got dearer only relative to calls.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position. BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.010% in eight-hour terms, as yesterday; on Binance +0.007% against +0.008% (what funding is). In ETH+0.003% on Hyperliquid against +0.006%, and +0.004% on Binance against +0.008%. This camp is silent: longs pay the usual price, in ether even less — nobody is overpaying on either side.
What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales. On Bybit perps at 05:01 UTC 65.0% of BTC accounts stand long against 66.9% yesterday; in ETH72.6% against 73.5%. The whales' long share in bitcoin — 14.7% against 15.6%, in ether 30.2% against 29.9%. This camp contradicts the whales: the crowd holds long, the whales — short. The gap in bitcoin narrowed by just 1.0 point, to 50.3; in ether — to 42.4.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market. On OKX swaps $0.85M was liquidated over the day, all of it longs, against $0.5M yesterday; that is 15% of the week's liquidations. Among the Hyperliquid addresses we track the exchange force-closed one — a small ether long. This camp confirms the whales, but weakly: only longs were forced out — and very few; the day's big longs closed on their own.
Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer
The classic altseason index is 41.8 out of 100 on a list of 263 alts against 47.4 yesterday on a list of 274; the lists differ, so the comparison is rough. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.
Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 40.5% — $4.73B of $11.68B against 40.8% yesterday.
Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's make up 34.9% of open interest against 45.4% yesterday. This measure swings between extremes from one day to the next, so we don't treat a difference like this as a move.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 75.4% long, as yesterday.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 23.9% long across $1.15B of positions, the largest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — over the day the whales' long share rose by 1.3 points, from 22.6%.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short in bitcoin and deepened it: on the constant set of addresses the short grew by 515BTC, while price is down 1.0% from yesterday's snapshot. The witnesses: the crowd stands against the whales; stress sides with the whales, but weakly; options and futures are silent, the funds have no data.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a fall: almost the whole increase in the short came from one account, the rest of the whales trimmed their bitcoin short slightly, and in ether the whales were buying shorts back. The long fuel gathered under the market means a bigger range of a move down for the same push, not a higher probability of that move. And a straddle for the end of December is bought for a move in either direction.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• the account that doubled its bitcoin short in a day — and the two longs that bought the dip at high leverage: where their lines lie;
• the structure of the day: a straddle bought twice in one day — the premium, the expiry and where it comes out in the black.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
💎DEEP
🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠
Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 04:46 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 04:46 snapshots, in coins; the moves of individual addresses come from the trade records. Distance to liquidation is from the header spot. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.
The account that doubled its short. Yesterday at the snapshot — SHORT 583.5BTC; over the day it added 668BTC. In the trade records that survive, the short was added at $80,501–82,085 — both near the day's top and right at the low. This morning SHORT 1,251.1 BTC ($101.2M) at 25× from $81,804, uPnL +$1.17M, liquidation at $91,934 — 13.8% above the market. Next to it ETH SHORT 7,679 ($18.3M); part of the ether short was bought back over the day in the black, +$105k. The account holds $16.2M — effective leverage about 8×. On its own it added more than the whole increase in the whales' short over the day — 668BTC against 515. Who bought the dip — and bought more. The long that took on 300BTC on 22.10 bought another 340BTC yesterday at 08:27–16:21 UTC at $81,600–81,800, close to the day's top, and sold 140 of them at a small gain. This morning LONG 500BTC ($40.4M) at 30× from $81,676, uPnL −$0.41M, liquidation at $77,525 — 4.0% under the market; yesterday the line was $74,007, 9.3% under. The account holds $2.2M: effective leverage about 19×. The second big line under the market. The address that in yesterday's radar added 100BTC and 3,000 ETH of long cut both yesterday at 13:35–15:44 UTC: it sold 3,020 ETH at $2,400–2,402, −$91k, and 107BTC at $81,465–81,567, −$87k. This morning BTC LONG 304.5 ($24.6M) at 40× from $82,333, liquidation at $77,005 — 4.7% under the market; ETH LONG 4,028 ($9.6M), liquidation at $2,210. Together these two longs are $65.0M of the $83.9M of long fuel within 5%. The longs that gave up without waiting for their line. The LONG of 139.2BTC at 40× with its line at $79,862 sold and bought back many times over the day — in total it closed 1,269 BTC at −$112k; the last sale at 22:51 UTC, near the low; this morning no positions. The day's account in ether, which on the night of 23.10 opened LONG 126.5BTC and 3,578 ETH, sold everything at 12:18–22:37 UTC: −$90k in bitcoin and −$100k in ether. The LONG of 180BTC at 40× sold 210 and bought back 105 — −$159k in total; this morning LONG 75BTC ($6.1M), the line has moved out to $74,492 — 7.8% under the market. The exchange force-closed none of them. The 40× long that gave up before its line and won part back on a short. The LONG of 92BTC with its line at $80,861 — 0.9% under the market yesterday — was sold by its owner at 14:16–14:19 UTC at $81,108–81,257, −$73k, and from 14:20 he began opening a SHORT, up to 113BTC at $80,922–81,233. He closed the short at 22:50–00:45 UTC at $80,632–80,931, near the low, +$39k. Price passed his old line in the evening, when the position on it was already gone. New near lines. The nearest long line is now $80,267, 0.6% under the market: LONG 120BTC ($9.7M) at 40× on an account of $0.19M. This address has no trade records for the day — the position is older, it entered the sample only today. Next to it — the address that flipped from short to long over the day: LONG 78.8BTC ($6.4M) at 40×, line at $80,187. Together with the line at $80,104, $18.0M of longs stand between the market and −1%. Ether: who flipped, who added short. The address that on 22.10 flipped from an ether long into a short closed its SHORT of 6,250 ETH at 14:48–22:51 UTC at +$7k, and at 22:53, right at ether's low, began buying: by 04:02 it had taken on 3,500 ETH, at 04:26 it sold 1,500 in the black, +$13k. This morning LONG 2,000 ETH ($4.8M) at 25× from $2,371. Yesterday's new 40× bitcoin short closed its 150BTC at 11:27 UTC at −$61k, and at 22:41–22:42 opened a SHORT of 7,500 ETH at $2,379–2,384 — ten minutes before the low: this morning $17.9M at 25×, liquidation at $3,395. The ether long that flipped into a short on 22.10 added 4,193 ETH of short at 13:15–13:47 UTC and bought 928 back at midnight in the black, +$18k: this morning SHORT 10,559 ETH ($25.1M) at 20× from $2,391, liquidation at $3,744. The 25× ether long — ETH LONG 10,000 from $2,602, uPnL −$2.2M, liquidation at $2,109 — at 22:33 UTC opened a new SHORT of 140BTC ($11.3M) at 25× next to it, at $81,146. The only forced closure among the addresses we track — LONG 90ETH at 22:53 UTC, right at ether's low, −$9k. The largest short house. Two addresses: BTC SHORT $213.3M from $76,327, uPnL −$12.0M, and BTC SHORT $203.5M from $78,114, uPnL −$6.9M; ETH SHORT $253.4M and $157.5M. Together with ether the unrealised loss is $25.5M against $34.5M yesterday — the fall lightened the shorts. Their $416.8M make up 52.8% of the registry's bitcoin short side against 55.9% yesterday: the share fell because another account added short. The largest ether long at 10× — LONG $115.5M from $2,610, uPnL −$11.1M, liquidation at $2,256 — 5.2% under the market against 5.9% yesterday. The largest gain among bitcoin and ether positions — ETH LONG $72.1M at 20× from $2,134, uPnL +$7.5M.
The structure of the day — the same straddle twice. Yesterday at 09:01 and 13:56 UTC, with the bitcoin index at $81,609 and $81,759, a straddle for 25.12 was bought in two identical blocks: 50 calls and 50 puts at $82,000 each time. Premium ≈6.03 and ≈6.06 BTC, ≈12.1BTC together — about $1M. The package comes out in the black if on 25.12 bitcoin is below ≈$72,100 or above ≈$91,900 — 10.8% below or 13.7% above the current spot; in between — a loss of up to the whole premium, the largest exactly at $82,000. Over the week open interest at $82,000 grew by 2,702 contracts — 1,668 calls and 1,035 puts, across 11 expiries; the straddle blocks account for only 200 of them, 100 of each kind.
Cases in the registry — one new, in bitcoin; two closed; 184 open. Case No. 1212 · BTC, a put diagonal, this morning: 23 puts at $77,000 for 13.11 sold, 23 puts at $80,000 for 26.03.2027 bought; premium ≈1.53BTC paid. Protection against a fall until March, part of whose price is covered by the sold November put: if on 13.11 bitcoin is below $77,000 — 4.7% under spot — the short put starts eating into the gain.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-13 expiry. The whale paid $124k in premium. No breakeven inside the range shown.
Case No. 1210 · BTC, a put ratio spread, closed by the code in the black, +$12.8k: the code closed it on the bought leg — 20 puts at $82,000 for yesterday's expiry. But the sold leg — 30 puts at $81,500 for 24.10 — settles today at 08:00 UTC, and with bitcoin below $81,500 it works against the whale. That plus is premature; the tally takes the code's verdict.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-23 expiry. The whale received $5k in premium. Breakeven: $80,034.
Case No. 1198 · ETH, a condor for yesterday's expiry: puts at $2,440 and calls at $2,450 sold, wings at $2,320 and $2,550 bought. Ether settled at $2,402 — under the sold put, but the premium covered the difference: +$2.6k.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-23 expiry. The whale received $12k in premium. Breakeven: $2,392 and $2,498.
Case No. 1197 · BTC: 500 calls at $90,000 bought, 500 at $95,000 sold, both for 06.11. The lower strike is 11.4% above spot against 10.3% yesterday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-06 expiry. The whale paid $183k in premium. Breakeven: $90,365.
Case No. 1081 · a BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026, premium ≈9.61BTC received. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 6.5% against this position — yesterday it was 7.6%.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-30 expiry. The whale received $729k in premium. Breakeven: $76,290.
The tape outside the case registry. In bitcoin overnight, at 01:23–01:47 UTC — the day's largest purchase of protection: four blocks of 100 puts for 25.12, three at $75,000 and one at $70,000, ≈10.8BTC of premium paid together — almost as much as for both straddles. Yesterday at 14:32–14:41 UTC — three blocks selling the $82,000 straddle for 13.11, 25 calls and 25 puts each, ≈5.2BTC of premium received together: someone gains if price stays near the market until mid-November — the counterparty view to the December buyer. At 18:45 — a calendar on $85,000 calls: 250 bought for 27.11, 250 sold for 06.11, ≈3.98BTC paid; at 13:35, 150 puts at $72,000 for 27.11 sold, ≈1.32BTC received. In ether at 08:49 UTC — a put spread for 30.10: 2,500 puts at $2,400 bought, 2,500 at $2,250 sold, ≈42.5ETH paid; at 09:56 — the same for today's expiry, 1,000 puts at $2,400 against $2,300. In the evening, at 17:15 and 17:37 — two sales of volatility on far expiries: a $2,300/2,500 strangle for 25.12 and a $2,300 straddle for 26.03.2027, ≈84.7ETH of premium received together. ΔOI over the week:BTC: −3,149 calls at $95,000, 96% on 30.10; +2,702 contracts at $82,000 — 1,668 calls and 1,035 puts, across 11 expiries; −2,685 calls at $100,000, all on 30.10. ETH: +23,251 calls at $2,500, across 12 expiries; +17,812 contracts at $2,400 — 11,120 puts and 6,692 calls, across 11 expiries; +14,079 puts at $2,200, 61% on 26.10.
🔬Who exactly
The largest short house is Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): two addresses, $416.8M of bitcoin short together and $410.9M in ether, $25.5M of unrealised loss.
The account that doubled its short is the address with the self-assigned name VBVIT. A self-assigned name isn't identification.
The address with the Arkham label Fasanara Capital trimmed both shorts slightly over the day: BTC from 574.8 to 550.2, ETH from 22,346 to 21,727. This morning BTC SHORT $44.5M at 30× from $81,903 and ETH SHORT $51.7M at 25× from $2,501, uPnL in ether +$2.6M.
The address with the Arkham label Wintermute — a market maker — flipped bitcoin from SHORT 89.9 to LONG 73.4 and cut its ether short from 12,359 to 6,917. A market maker's position may be a hedge, so we don't take a direction from it.
The rest of the portraits above — both longs with big lines under the market, the longs that gave up, the ether flips and the new shorts — carry no public Arkham labels; several of them have self-assigned names, but we don't use those.
Money by address. Over the day there were no deposits above $250k. The largest withdrawal — $1.77M USDC in three tranches at 22:50, 23:01 and 00:27 UTC to an OKX deposit address; another $1.0M USDC at 01:37 went to an address we haven't checked.
🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬
Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days, between the 17.10 and 24.10 snapshots at 04:46 UTC, on 114 addresses: BTC — about $36M into the short, ETH — about $4.5M into the long; across all addresses of both snapshots — about $167M into the short and about $6M into the short. Yesterday the weekly window gave about $152M and $59M across all addresses. The week's constant set changed a lot in one day, so we look at all addresses: the bitcoin short over the week is slightly deeper than yesterday, and the ether one has almost vanished — today's buying back ate it.
Gamma flip. Computed at 04:50 UTC: BTC across the whole book $79,406 against $80,112 yesterday — spot 1.7% above it (what the flip is). The near flips — $81,643 at 2 days and $80,874–81,130 at 7–60 days — are all above spot: yesterday spot stood above the 14–30 day flips, today it is under all the near ones. ETH across the whole book $2,357 against $2,404 — spot at $2,380 is back above it because the flip came down; at 2–7 days $2,400–2,402 — above the market for at least an eighth day.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +4.6 against +4.8 yesterday: IV37.6 against the actual weekly HV 32.9, the difference computed from unrounded numbers.
🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠
BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Today's expiry 24.10 is a daily one, at 08:00 UTC, after this snapshot: max pain$81,500 across the combined book and on Bybit, $82,000 on Deribit (what max pain is); put $81,000 (211 contracts), call $85,000 (163) (what the walls are) — the expiry is small. The market-maker corridor for today — $80,500–84,000, spot inside it, 0.4% above the lower edge. 30.10: max pain$78,000 across the combined book and on Deribit, $82,000 on Bybit; put wall $70,000 (4,392), call wall $95,000 (20,006). 30.10 holds 35% of all bitcoin contracts, 25.12 — 34%.
ETH levels. 24.10: max pain$2,400 across the combined book, on Deribit and on Bybit; put $2,300 (4,310), call $2,460 (2,210). The market-maker corridor — $2,360–2,440, spot inside it. 30.10: max pain$2,500 across the combined book and on Deribit, $2,475 on Bybit; put wall $2,300 (25,661), call wall $2,600 (37,701).
Fuel. At the 04:46 UTC snapshot, under BTC within 5% of the price at the time ($76,822–84,908) there are $83.9M of long positions against $46.9M yesterday; above it — $3.5M of shorts against $16.4M. Of the longs, $65.0M is two accounts with lines at $77,525 and $77,005, 4.0% and 4.7% under the header spot. Between the market and −1% — $18.0M of long lines, $80,104–80,267; yesterday between the market and −2% there was $7.7M. There are no short lines between the market and +2%, as yesterday; the nearest is $82,629 ($0.6M), 2.3% above the header spot, then $83,645 ($1.9M) and $84,012 ($1.0M). In ETH under the market within 5% — $0.8M of longs against $9.9M yesterday, above the market — $0.5M; the line of the largest ether long, $2,256, lies just outside the edge of that zone. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).
Gamma vacuum. In BTC there are no empty zones above the market; below it $75,000–76,000 is empty; in ETH — $2,250–2,300 under the market.
Stress test ±2%. From the header spot: in bitcoin a 2% fall ($79,175) is under all three near long lines and under the whole-book flip at $79,406, but still above the lines of the two big longs, $77,005–77,525; above, +2% ($82,407) is past all the near flips and 0.3% under the first short line at $82,629. In ether −2% ($2,332) is under the whole-book flip at $2,357; +2% ($2,428) is above the near flips at $2,400–2,402.
OI flow.BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.57 · week 0.60 · now 0.59. ETH0.56 · 0.51 · 0.49 (what put/call is).
Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days BTC put/call is 0.57 on Deribit against 1.22 on Bybit; ETH0.84 and 0.79.
IV by tenor.BTC 2d P26/C20 · 6d P35/C30 · 34d P39/C34, percentiles since February for the 6- and 34-day — 12th and 33rd; the two-day is in the cross-check above. ETH 2d P35/C29 · 6d P48/C44 · 34d P52/C49, percentiles 8th, 24th and 32nd. Day to day we compare only the two-day tenor: yesterday BTC P26, ETH P40. BTCDVOL37.5 against 30-day realised HV30.9 — a premium of +6.6 against +5.2; ETHDVOL51.8 against HV44.8 — +7.0 against +2.4 (what the premium is).
💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠
The code's verdicts. "The corridor holds" from 21.10 (rated 50%) the code recorded as partial — bitcoin was inside it 81% of the time. "Squeeze up through the short fuel" from 22.10 (25%) — cancelled at its level: the $80,445 low against the $81,050 level. "The corridor" and "Slide into the long fuel" from 22.10 close at 06:46 UTC — after this snapshot; the "Slide" trigger, $81,050, price has already touched. The scenarios from 23.10 stay open until 25.10.
The all-time tally (N counts only those that reached a verdict): squeeze up through the short fuel — 18 of 43, 20 more cancelled at their level; corridor — 27 of 53 plus 15 partial, 5 more cancelled; slide into the long fuel — 16 of 34, 17 more cancelled. The directional types are still no better than a coin toss.
The corridor holds — 50%. ⏱ 2 days, to 26.10. BTC stays between $79,400 and $82,400 — from −1.7% to +2.0% of the header spot. At the bottom the corridor ends under the three near long lines ($80,104–80,267) and just under the whole-book gamma flip at $79,406; at the top — under the first short line at $82,629. Cancellation level: a touch of $77,500 — under the line of the larger of the two big longs, $77,525, and above the line of the second, $77,005.
Slide into the long fuel — 30%. ⏱ 2 days, to 26.10. Trigger: a touch of $79,400 — under $18.0M of near long lines and under the whole-book gamma flip, where dealers stop damping the move and start amplifying it. Further down — the empty zone $75,000–76,000 and the lines of the two big longs, $77,005–77,525. Cancellation level: a touch of $82,400.
Bounce past the near flips — 20%. ⏱ 2 days, to 26.10. Trigger: a touch of $82,400 — above all the near gamma flips. There is little short fuel on that path — $3.5M within 5% — so there is almost no push from that side. Cancellation level: a touch of $79,400.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.
🔭WHAT TO WATCH
• The three near long lines, $80,104–80,267 — 0.6–0.9% under the market (💠).
• The two big longs bought on the dip, with lines at $77,005 and $77,525 — 4.0–4.7% under the market (💠).
• The account that doubled its bitcoin short: its line at $91,934 is far away, but it added even at the low — does it continue (💠).
🆓TAIL
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel(the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
−$513 on the day · +$7,528 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 534%−$1,125+$74,969 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 437%−$1,125+$23,559 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 4134%−$454+$9,803 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 5131%−$789+$4,801 26.05
Fear Flash V3 1127%−$139+$1,766 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,719 · Wheel Trail V6 −$9,732 · Wheel Trail V7 −$8,767 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs. Over the day four trades closed in the top five, all at a loss: two each in Dust Strategy V2 and V1, −$1,125 apiece; the Pendulum lost $513 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 53 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 460 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 375 times — 82%. Yesterday's Friday expiry it held in both bitcoin and ether. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 171 of those same 460 expiries, 37%; yesterday — no in bitcoin and no in ether. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 114, 43%. Yesterday price reached neither wall. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 888 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 881 with a score, −$18.92M in total for the whales. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$7,528 since 11.05 with −$513 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 55 out of 100 against 56 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself.BTC two-day vol — 6th percentile of the hourly history since February, six-day — 12th, 34 days out — 33rd: insurance is cheaper than usual on every tenor, and on the nearest it is almost the cheapest since February.
• Which way protection tilts.BTCskew+4.6: puts dearer than calls, and more so than yesterday's +3.4. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.