The climb to the day's high forced the whales' short nearest the market shutand within the hour the same account opened a new short right at the top and had won the loss back by morning.
Case No. 20261022 · 22.10.2026 05:49 UTC · BTC$82,708 / ETH$2,436 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
Since yesterday's radar no expiry has settled: Wednesday's morning expiry we reviewed yesterday, and today's Thursday one settles at 08:00 UTC — after this snapshot, so its review comes tomorrow. Closed cases in the registry — 885, as yesterday; overnight two new ones entered, both small, both in bitcoin.
Of the three positions yesterday's radar said to watch, one is still in place this morning — the ether long. The short with its liquidation line nearest the market was three-quarters closed by the exchange, by force, and the owner closed the rest himself; the bitcoin long that had turned around from an ether short the day before yesterday was closed by its owner, in the black.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is down 0.4% and ether 0.6%. In between, on the Hyperliquid perp bitcoin reached $84,850 at 16:30 UTC — 2.2% above yesterday's snapshot — didn't drop below $84,000 until midnight, then from 01:30 UTC fell to $82,800 within an hour; the night's low was $82,645 at 03:30.
• The whales' short with its liquidation line nearest the market — the one that yesterday held almost all the short fuel within 2% of the price — was force-closed on the climb in three parts, at 08:49, 13:04 and 14:36 UTC; the owner closed the rest himself at 16:00. In that same minute the same account began opening a new short — at the top — and over the day, net of fees, came out ahead.
• Those standing on the other side earned on the swing: two big longs sold bitcoin near the top, and a short added at the top was closed overnight on the fall, in the black.
• Across the registry the whales' bitcoin short is now 5.6 times the long against 4.4 yesterday; the long share is 15.2% against 18.5%. There are no new shorts behind this: both sides shrank, the longs by more.
• Fuel near the market has flipped: within 2% of bitcoin's price — $17.0M of long liquidation lines below it and $11.9M of short lines above, against $22.5M and $25.0M yesterday. Almost all of the long side is two accounts.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳: the whales stand short and the tilt in bitcoin is bigger than yesterday; the climb knocked out the short next to the market but had fully retraced by morning.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, +$590 on the day, +$8,163 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$77,219 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,812. Table at the bottom.
🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas
Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change in coins between the 04:16 UTC snapshots — on the constant set and on all addresses of both snapshots (how we track whale positions). In BTC on the constant set — 128 addresses — shorts shrank by 230BTC and longs by 29: the tilt moved toward long by about $17M. Across all addresses longs shrank by 508BTC and shorts by 461, and the tilt barely moved — about $4M toward short. The difference came from addresses that left the sample: the largest of them — two longs, both in the black (one sold near the top, the other overnight on the way down), and a short added at the top that closed overnight. In ETH both sides grew, the short by more: on the constant set the tilt moved toward short by about $7M, across all addresses by about $18M. Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — the totals at the 04:16 UTC snapshot: BTC long $126.0M against a short of $702.6M, yesterday $168.2M and $739.8M; ETH$335.0M against $695.0M. The whales' long share in ETH is 32.5% against 31.4%. Overleveraged whales number 60 against 68 yesterday, $856M of positions together against $1,001M; the longs among them are 62% against 60%. Among the addresses we track, three were force-closed: the largest — the short next to the market; the other two — small accounts, a short on the climb and a long on the overnight fall.
Arena two — Deribit options. Over Wednesday and Thursday morning 66 structures were recognised in bitcoin and 6 in ether — against 51 and 15 in yesterday's window. Wednesday's largest blocks came in the evening, with bitcoin near the top: at 21:22 and 21:29 UTC — two packages of about twenty legs each, one for the December expiry 25.12 and one for the October 30.10. By its shape the October one mostly gains from a fall; whether it is a new position or the closing of an old one, the block doesn't show. During the day the same trade went through twice — on bitcoin not falling below a certain level by 30.10. In ether — two identical put sales for Sunday's expiry 25.10. Quiet accumulation outside the blocks over the week (what a block is): in bitcoin two of the top three are being unwound — calls far above the market for 30.10 — while the third is being built — puts near the market, spread over 11 expiries; in ether the most was added in calls above the market, mostly for 30.10, and in puts below it.
Arena three — money at the exchange border. The snapshot runs to 05:33 UTC; the last transfer above $250k was today at 03:04 UTC. Over seven days $62.7M was brought into the exchange and $19.7M taken out: $43.0M more arrived than left, against $45.7M yesterday. In the day since yesterday's radar $8.0M came in and $5.2M went out — yesterday $20.1M and $3.1M: the border has gone quiet. In the weekly window $25.7M more bitcoin arrived than left — mostly from exchanges; USDC cash — $9.4M more; ether — $3.5M; ZEC — $2.6M.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses
What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position. There are no fresh figures: the SoSoValue data source hasn't answered since 09.10, the latest are for Thursday 08.10. This camp is silent: no data.
What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book. BTCskew is +3.7 against +2.7 yesterday — puts got dearer again relative to calls, back to the level of two days ago (what skew is). In ETH+2.3 against +1.4. BTC two-day vol sits in the 26th percentile since February against the 27th yesterday; ETH — in the 21st against the 34th (what implied vol is). Our fear-and-greed index stands at 54 out of 100 against 55 yesterday — the neutral zone. This camp is silent: protection against a fall got dearer relative to calls, but volatility itself stayed cheap — the market isn't paying more for fear than usual.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position. BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.010% in eight-hour terms, as yesterday; on Binance −0.002% against +0.007% (what funding is). In ETH+0.010% on Hyperliquid, as yesterday, and +0.000% on Binance against +0.004%. This camp is silent: funding sits at its usual base level — neither longs nor shorts are overpaying.
What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales. On Bybit perps at 04:15 UTC, the time of the whale snapshot, 60.1% of BTC accounts stand long against 61.8% yesterday; in ETH71.5% against 71.6%. The whales' long share in bitcoin over the same day — 15.2% against 18.5%. This camp is silent: the crowd trimmed its longs a little, the whales by more; the gap in bitcoin widened by 1.6 points, to 44.9.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market. On OKX swaps $2.4M was liquidated over the day, 69% of it shorts, against $195k yesterday; that is 43% of the week's liquidations. Among the Hyperliquid addresses we track three were force-closed, the largest — the short next to the market. This camp contradicts the whales: the forced exits were mostly shorts — on a climb that had fully retraced by morning.
Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer
The classic altseason index is 46.1 out of 100 on a list of 254 alts against 47.7 yesterday on a list of 220; the lists differ, so the comparison is rough. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.
Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 41.5% — $4.91B of $11.84B against 41.7% yesterday.
Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's make up 32.8% of open interest against 5.8% in yesterday's morning measurement. This measure swings between extremes from one day to the next, so we don't treat a difference like this as a move.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 73.3% long against 73.2%.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 26.1% long across $1.29B of positions, the largest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — over the day the whales' long share fell by 2.0 points.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short, in bitcoin 5.6 times the long against 4.4 yesterday; the 2.2% climb force-closed the short next to the market but had fully retraced by morning, and the shorts opened at the top closed in the black. The witnesses: the funds have no data; stress runs against the whales; options, futures and the crowd are silent.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a fall: the tilt grew not because shorts were added — the longs shrank by more. Yesterday showed something else: price went up to the short fuel and came back, and the big accounts earned on the swing itself, in both directions.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• whose short was taken by force on the climb — and how the same account had the loss back by morning;
• the structure of the day: a package for the October expiry, assembled near the top — the premium and where it gains.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
💎DEEP
🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠
Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 04:16 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 04:16 snapshots, in coins; the moves of individual addresses come from the trade records. Distance to liquidation is from the header spot. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.
The short on the edge — force-closed, and back at the top. Yesterday it held SHORT 275.9BTC at 40× from $82,836 with liquidation at $83,503. The exchange closed it by force three times: at 08:49 UTC — 55.2BTC at $83,604–83,608, at 13:04–13:06 — 79.5BTC at $83,859–83,888, at 14:36–14:52 — 68.9BTC at $84,178–84,700; 203.6BTC in total and −$234k, plus 565ETH of an ether short, −$26k. At 16:00 UTC the owner closed the rest himself — 72.3BTC at $84,512–84,553, −$123k — and in that same minute began a new short: by 16:50 he had sold 284.7BTC at $84,458–84,615, with the day's high, $84,850, coming at 16:30. Overnight the address closed the short in parts, in the black, and opened it again: the day's realised result is +$114k, fees $66k, net +$48k. This morning SHORT 105.2BTC ($8.7M) at 40× from $82,926, liquidation at $86,436 — 4.5% above the market. The ether short-seller who turned long the day before yesterday — turned once more and left. Yesterday at 13:40–19:17 UTC it bought a further 95BTC at $83,524–84,547, to 350. At 01:42–01:55 UTC, at the start of the fall, it sold all 350 at $83,455–83,571, +$43k; at 01:59–02:01 it opened a SHORT of 250BTC at $83,400–83,455 and at 02:19–02:21 bought it back at $82,883–83,000, +$118k. For the day +$161k, +$140k net of fees. This morning no positions. The 40× short that came back two days ago — added at the top and closed overnight. Yesterday at 15:13–19:04 UTC the address sold a further 300.5BTC at $84,200–84,675, and at 01:42–02:31 UTC bought back all 500.5BTC at $82,888–83,500: +$333k, +$323k net of fees. This morning no positions. Two longs — sold the top. One address at 14:48 UTC sold all 199.8BTC at $84,361–84,401, +$616k, and at 14:49 — all 3,776 ETH at $2,490–2,492, +$268k. The 25× long that halved two days ago sold its remaining 250BTC at 15:11–20:17 UTC at $84,480–84,787, +$568k. Long fuel under the market — two accounts at 40×. LONG 120BTC ($9.9M) from $83,284, liquidation at $81,729 — 1.2% under the market; yesterday this was 100BTC with its line at $79,599. LONG 84.9BTC ($7.0M) from $83,548, liquidation at $81,899 — 1.0% under the market; yesterday — 16.2BTC. Together $17.0M — almost all of the long fuel within 2%. The day's account in ether — in place. LONG 1,935.6 ETH at 25× from $2,455, liquidation at $2,407 — 1.2% under the market; ether's overnight low on Hyperliquid was $2,433.7. The self-named address — cut its short.−156BTC over the day: SHORT 345.2BTC ($28.6M) at 25× from $82,142, liquidation at $112,508 — 36.0% above the market. The largest ether long at 10× — +3,331ETH over the day: LONG 48,500 ETH ($118.6M) from $2,610, uPnL −$8.0M, liquidation at $2,255 — 7.4% under the market. The largest short house — almost unchanged. Its two addresses added 20.5 and 7.7BTC of short over the day: BTC SHORT $216.2M from $76,265, uPnL −$17.3M, and BTC SHORT $208.6M from $78,114, uPnL −$12.1M. Together with their ether shorts the two addresses carry $47.1M of unrealised loss against $46.4M yesterday; their $424.8M make up 60.5% of the registry's bitcoin short side against 57%: the share rose because others cut their shorts. The market's biggest gain — ETH LONG $74.0M at 20× from $2,134, uPnL +$9.4M.
The structure of the day — a package for 30.10, assembled near the top. Yesterday at 21:29 UTC, with bitcoin near $84,700, a single block of 24 legs went through for the October expiry 30.10, 5,181 contracts in total. The core of it: 1,677 calls deep in the money sold, at $70,000–82,000, and 733 puts near the market bought, at $82,000–85,000; the rest — smaller calls and puts around them. Premium ≈109BTC received. For whoever took the package, on 30.10 it gains below ≈$84,100 — at the current spot ≈+$2.9M, and more with every thousand dollars of decline; above ≈$84,100 it loses. Whether it is a new position or the closing of an old one, the block doesn't show. Seven minutes earlier, at 21:22 UTC — a similar package of 23 legs for 25.12, 2,950 contracts: most of it calls sold at $80,000–88,000 and far puts bought at $30,000–35,000.
Cases in the registry — two new, both small, both in bitcoin; 183 open. Case No. 1208 · BTC, a risk reversal for 06.11, today at 04:25 UTC: 15 puts at $72,000 sold, 15 calls at $83,000 bought; premium ≈0.41BTC paid. It breaks even if on 06.11 bitcoin is above ≈$85,200; it loses below $72,000.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-06 expiry. The whale paid $34k in premium. Breakeven: $85,234.
Case No. 1207 · BTC, a call diagonal, at 04:57 UTC: 20 calls at $85,000 for Sunday 25.10 sold, 20 at $86,000 for 30.10 bought; premium ≈0.09BTC paid.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-25 expiry. The whale paid $8k in premium. No breakeven inside the range shown.
Case No. 1200 · BTC, a condor for today's expiry 22.10: an $82,500 put and an $83,500 call sold, an $81,000 put and an $85,000 call bought. Spot at $82,708 is inside the $82,500–83,500 corridor; settlement at 08:00 UTC.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-22 expiry. The whale received $20k in premium. Breakeven: $81,994 and $84,006.
Case No. 1197 · BTC, yesterday's structure of the day: 500 calls at $90,000 bought, 500 at $95,000 sold, both for 06.11. The lower strike is 8.8% above spot against 8.4% yesterday.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-06 expiry. The whale paid $183k in premium. Breakeven: $90,365.
Case No. 1081 · a BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026, premium ≈9.61BTC received. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 9.0% against this position — yesterday it was 9.5%.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-30 expiry. The whale received $729k in premium. Breakeven: $76,290.
The tape outside the case registry. Yesterday at 09:17 and 14:02 UTC — two blocks of the same shape for 30.10: 250 puts at $74,000 bought and 250 at $77,000 sold; the first also sold 200 puts at $75,000 for 06.11; ≈1.42 and ≈0.30BTC of premium received. Both gain if on 30.10 bitcoin is above $77,000 — 6.9% under spot. In ether at 10:07–10:08 UTC — two identical blocks: 400 puts at $2,420 sold in each for Sunday 25.10, ≈4.3 and ≈4.4ETH of premium received. ΔOI over the week:BTC: −3,294 calls at $95,000, 95% on 30.10; −3,007 at $100,000, all on 30.10; +2,080 puts at $82,000, over 11 expiries. ETH: +16,969 calls at $2,600, 77% on 30.10; +12,814 puts at $2,200, over 10 expiries; +11,418 calls at $2,500, over 10 expiries.
🔬Who exactly
The largest short house is Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): two addresses, $424.8M of bitcoin short together and $47.1M of unrealised loss across BTC and ETH.
The address with the Arkham label Fasanara Capital moved its short from bitcoin into ether: −327BTC and +4,690ETH between the snapshots. This morning BTC SHORT $23.9M at 30× from $82,312 and ETH SHORT $60.1M at 25× from $2,507, uPnL in ether +$1.5M.
The address with the Arkham label Wintermute — a market maker — added 340BTC and 2,388 ETH of short: BTC SHORT $31.8M at 20×, ETH SHORT $42.9M at 15×. A market maker's short may be a hedge, so we don't take a direction from it.
The short on the edge, the ether short-seller, the short that came back two days ago, both longs that sold the top and the two longs under the market carry no public labels.
Money by address. Over seven days the largest bitcoin deposits — from Binance, $2.8–3.7M each. The day's largest deposit — $2.0M USDC at 01:38 UTC from a private address to an account that over the same day grew its ether short from 696 to 3,967 ETH. Another address that added 2,227 ETH of short over the day brought in USDC seven times, $0.3–0.4M each. The day's largest withdrawal — $1.5M USDC at 20:42 UTC to an address we haven't checked yet; $1.0M went to a Binance deposit address at 02:54 UTC.
🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬
Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days, between the 15.10 and 22.10 snapshots at 04:16 UTC, on 119 addresses: BTC — about $55M into the short, ETH — about $11M into the short; across all addresses of both snapshots — about $86M and $3M. The weekly window has shifted by a day, so we don't treat the difference from yesterday as the day's move — the daily shift is counted separately, above.
Gamma flip. Computed at 05:47 UTC: BTC across the whole book $79,650 against $80,255 yesterday — spot 3.8% above it (what the flip is). On the near expiries the flip at 2–7 days is $82,727–82,805 — spot sits right under it, yesterday it stood above; at 14–30 days $81,612–81,767. ETH across the whole book $2,376 against $2,363; at 2–7 days $2,467–2,469 — above the market: ether has been under the near flip for at least a sixth day.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +4.3 (IV37.6 against the actual weekly HV33.2) against +3.6 yesterday.
🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠
BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Today's Thursday expiry 22.10, at 08:00 UTC: max pain$83,000 across the combined book and on Deribit, $83,500 on Bybit (what max pain is); put $82,000 (198 contracts), call $84,000 (344) (what the walls are). 30.10: max pain$78,000 across the combined book and on Deribit, $82,000 on Bybit; put wall $70,000 (4,404), call wall $95,000 (20,008). The market-maker corridor for today — $82,000–83,500.
ETH levels. 22.10: max pain$2,460 across the combined book, $2,440 on Deribit, $2,460 on Bybit; put $2,440 (3,614), call $2,520 (1,640). 30.10: max pain$2,500, put wall $2,300 (24,772), call wall $2,600 (37,709). The market-maker corridor — $2,420–2,500.
Fuel. At the 04:16 UTC snapshot, under BTC within 5% of the price at the time ($78,767–87,059) there are $23.2M of long positions against $40.3M yesterday; above it — $20.6M of shorts against $27.4M. The nearest short line is $83,793, 1.3% above the market; the largest long line within 2% is $81,729. Between the market and +2% — $11.9M of short lines against $25.0M yesterday; between the market and −2% — $17.0M of long lines against $22.5M. In ETH no short lines above the market within 5%, as yesterday; under it — $8.9M of longs against $10.0M: $4.7M is the day's account with its line at $2,407 and $4.2M a long with its line at $2,425, 0.5% under the market. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).
Gamma vacuum. In BTC there are no empty zones above the market; below it $76,000–77,000 is empty; in ETH — $2,300–2,350 under the market.
Stress test ±2%. From the header spot: in bitcoin a 2% fall ($81,054) is already under both long lines ($81,899 and $81,729) and under the near flips at 14–30 days, but above the whole-book flip at $79,650; above, +2% ($84,362) is past the four short lines at $83,793–83,928 and still under the $90,000 call wall across the whole book. In ether −2% ($2,387) is under both long lines ($2,425 and $2,407), above the whole-book flip at $2,376.
OI flow.BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.57 · week 0.60 · now 0.61. ETH0.53 · 0.51 · 0.49 (what put/call is).
Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days BTC put/call is 0.59 on Deribit against 1.46 on Bybit; ETH0.85 and 0.97.
IV by tenor.BTC 2d P32/C30 · 8d P34/C34 · 36d P38/C35, percentiles since February for the 8- and 36-day — 24th and 34th; the two-day is in the cross-check above. ETH 2d P39/C40 · 8d P47/C46 · 36d P51/C49, percentiles 21st, 27th and 29th. Day to day we compare only the two-day tenor: yesterday BTC P32, ETH P46. BTCDVOL37.6 against 30-day realised HV32.4 — a premium of +5.2 against +4.2 yesterday; ETHDVOL49.9 against HV48.2 — +1.7, as yesterday (what the premium is).
💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠
The code's verdicts. The scenarios from 20.10 closed today at 06:21 UTC: "Squeeze up through the short fuel" (rated 25%) was confirmed — the high was $84,758 against the $83,500 level; "The corridor holds" (50%) — partially: price was within $80,250–83,500 for 72% of the time, closing at $82,765; "Slide into the long fuel" (25%) was cancelled at its level — the $84,758 high against the $83,500 level. The code counts hourly closes; on Hyperliquid's 15-minute bars the high was $84,850. Of the scenarios from 21.10, "Slide into the long fuel" has already been cancelled at its level — the same high against the $84,700 level; "Squeeze up" has already touched its trigger — $84,758 against $84,700, the code will record the verdict on 23.10; "The corridor" stays open until 23.10.
The all-time tally (N counts only those that reached a verdict): squeeze up through the short fuel — 18 of 43, 18 more cancelled at their level; corridor — 27 of 52 plus 14 partial, 5 more cancelled; slide into the long fuel — 16 of 34, 17 more cancelled. The directional types are still no better than a coin toss.
The corridor holds — 50%. ⏱ 2 days, to 24.10. BTC stays within the near 2% of the market: $81,050–$84,350. Both 40× long lines — $81,899 and $81,729 — and the four nearest short lines, $83,793–83,928, lie inside the corridor. Cancellation level: a touch of $78,600 — 5% below the header spot.
Squeeze up through the short fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 24.10. Trigger: a touch of $84,350 — a break above the near 2%, already past the nearest short lines. Cancellation level: a touch of $81,050.
Slide into the long fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 24.10. Trigger: a touch of $81,050 — a break below the near 2%, already under both 40× long lines and under the near gamma flips. Cancellation level: a touch of $84,350.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.
🔭WHAT TO WATCH
• Two 40× longs under the market: lines at $81,899 and $81,729 — 1.0% and 1.2% under, $17.0M together (💠).
• The short that came back to the top: line at $86,436 — 4.5% above the market (💠).
• The day's account in ether: line at $2,407 — 1.2% under the market; next to it a long with its line at $2,425 — 0.5% (💠).
🆓TAIL
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel(the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
+$590 on the day · +$8,163 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 514%−$1,125+$77,219 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 417%−$1,125+$25,809 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 4035%−$641+$10,257 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 5131%−$789+$4,801 26.05
Fear Flash V3 1127%−$139+$1,766 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,812 · Wheel Trail V6 −$9,823 · Wheel Trail V7 −$8,763 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs. Over the day one trade closed in the top five, at a loss: Volatility Convergence V3 −$641; the Pendulum made +$590 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 51 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 456 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 371 times — 81%. Since yesterday's radar there have been no new settlements: today's Thursday expiry settles at 08:00 UTC, after this snapshot. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 170 of those same 456 expiries, 37%. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 114, 43%. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 885 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 878 with a score, −$18.94M in total for the whales. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$8,163 since 11.05 with +$590 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 54 out of 100 against 55 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself.BTC two-day vol — 26th percentile of the hourly history since February, eight-day — 24th, 36 days out — 34th: insurance is cheaper than usual on every tenor.
• Which way protection tilts.BTCskew+3.7: puts dearer than calls, and more so than yesterday's +2.7. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.