Price climbed to the day's high and the two biggest shorts near the market bought themselves back at a lossover the next hour other whales opened fresh shorts, and by morning the short side had grown.
Case No. 20261021 · 21.10.2026 08:20 UTC · BTC$83,036 / ETH$2,450 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
Tuesday's expiry settled at 08:00 UTC: BTC$81,460, ETH$2,388. The market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry — $80,000–83,500 and $2,340–2,480 — held both settlements, for the fifth day running. The max pain fixed a day before expiry — $82,000 and $2,420 — matched bitcoin by the ledger's rule (the settlement came 0.7% below it) but not ether: there the settlement came 1.3% below, and the three-day run in ether broke. Yesterday's radar quoted the morning book, so the corridor there was different.
This morning's expiry has also settled already, at 08:00 UTC: BTC$83,029, ETH$2,451. In bitcoin the settlement left the $80,500–83,000 corridor upward, by $29 — after five days in which the corridor held; in ether the $2,320–2,460 corridor held. Max pain — $81,500 and $2,400 — matched neither.
One case resolved over the day; the closed tally is 885 against 884 yesterday; this morning ten new cases entered the registry, nine of them in bitcoin.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is up 1.4% and ether 2.0%. On the Hyperliquid perp bitcoin reached $83,425 on Tuesday by 15:00 UTC — the day's high — and hasn't dropped below $82,200 since; today at 08:15 UTC it climbed again, to $83,357.
• The two biggest shorts near the market — one in bitcoin, one in ether — bought everything back themselves on Tuesday at 13:37–14:08 UTC, at a loss, with no forced closure. Two minutes after the buyback ether passed the ether short's liquidation line; bitcoin never reached the bitcoin one.
• Over the following hour other whales were opening shorts. On the constant set of addresses the bitcoin short tilt grew by about $66M over the day; the whales' long share across the registry is 18.5% against 21.0% yesterday, the short is 4.4 times the long against 3.8. The ether short-seller who gave up now stands long in bitcoin.
• Fuel is back right next to the market: within 2% of bitcoin's price — $25.0M of short liquidation lines above it and $22.5M of long lines below, against $2.1M and $3.0M yesterday. Each of the two sums is almost entirely one account.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳: the whales stand short and over the day the short grew, though price rose; fuel now sits close on both sides.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, +$398 on the day, +$7,573 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$77,219 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,812. Table at the bottom.
🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas
Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change in coins between the 04:16 UTC snapshots — on the constant set and on all addresses of both snapshots (how we track whale positions). In BTC on the constant set — 123 addresses — the short tilt grew by about $66M: 878BTC were added to shorts, 78 to longs. Across all addresses — by about $82M. The difference came from new shorts in the sample — among them an address that left the market two days ago and came back with a new short — and from a long that left in the black; the short that gave up offset part of this. In ETH the tilt moved toward long: by about $12M on the constant set, by about $17M across all addresses. The main cause — the ether short from Friday's low closed in full. Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — the totals at the 04:16 UTC snapshot: BTC long $168.2M against a short of $739.8M, ETH$302.9M against $661.7M. The whales' long share in ETH is 31.4%, as yesterday. Overleveraged whales number 68 against 62 yesterday, $1,001M of positions together against $940M; the longs among them are 60% against 58%. Among the addresses we track there were no forced closures over the day, as yesterday: both exits from the edge were buybacks by the owners themselves.
Arena two — Deribit options. The tape is busier still: over Tuesday and Wednesday morning 51 structures were recognised in bitcoin and 15 in ether — against 35 and 15 in yesterday's window. Tuesday's largest block in bitcoin — four identical trades within one minute for the October expiry 30.10: calls far above the market sold and bought at once in the shape of a "butterfly", with a smaller part rolled to 06.11. Open interest at these strikes fell over the week — it looks as if the position was being closed, not opened. Overnight and this morning — several condors for different expiries, all on price staying in a narrow corridor near the current one. In ether the largest overnight was the same shape for Friday's expiry 23.10. Quiet accumulation outside the blocks over the week (what a block is) has changed shape again: in bitcoin two of the top three are now being unwound — calls far above the market for 30.10 — while calls near the market are being built, spread over 11 expiries; in ether, as yesterday, the most was added in calls above the market, mostly for 30.10.
Arena three — money at the exchange border. The snapshot runs to 08:18 UTC; the last transfer above $250k was today at 07:31 UTC. Over seven days $62.2M was brought into the exchange and $16.5M taken out: $45.7M more arrived than left, against $41.9M yesterday. In the day since yesterday's radar $20.1M came in and $3.1M went out; $13.1M of that was five bitcoin transfers from an exchange overnight, at 01:16–03:19 UTC. In the weekly window $24.4M more bitcoin arrived than left — mostly from exchanges; USDC cash — $10.2M more; ether — $5.5M; ZEC — $4.7M.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses
What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position. There are no fresh figures: the SoSoValue data source hasn't answered since 09.10, the latest are for Thursday 08.10. This camp is silent: no data.
What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book. BTCskew is +2.7 against +3.7 yesterday — puts still dearer than calls, but the four-day steepening of the tilt has broken (what skew is). In ETH+1.4 against +2.1. BTC two-day vol sits in the 27th percentile since February against the 26th yesterday; ETH — in the 34th against the 35th (what implied vol is). Our fear-and-greed index stands at 55 out of 100 against 50 yesterday — the neutral zone. This camp is silent: protection against a fall got cheaper relative to calls while the overall price of volatility stands still — too small a shift to treat as a direction.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position. BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.010% in eight-hour terms, as yesterday; on Binance +0.007% against +0.010% (what funding is). In ETH+0.010% on Hyperliquid and +0.004% on Binance against +0.007% and +0.009%. This camp is silent: funding sits at its usual base level — neither longs nor shorts are overpaying.
What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales. On Bybit perps at 04:15 UTC, the time of the whale snapshot, 61.8% of BTC accounts stand long against 63.5% yesterday; in ETH71.6% against 71.7%. The whales' long share in bitcoin over the same day — 18.5% against 21.0%. This camp is silent: the crowd trimmed its longs a little, and the whales' long share fell further; the gap in bitcoin widened by only 0.8 points, to 43.3.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market. On OKX swaps $195k was liquidated over the day, 92% of it longs, against $456k yesterday; that is 3% of the week's liquidations. Among the Hyperliquid addresses we track — no forced closures. This camp is silent: liquidations sit at background level; the shorts at the edge left on their own before price reached their lines.
Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer
The classic altseason index is 47.7 out of 100 on a list of 220 alts against 46.2 yesterday on a list of 240; the lists differ, so the comparison is rough. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.
Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 41.7% — $5.00B of $11.99B against 41.1% yesterday.
Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's make up 5.8% of open interest against 48.8% in yesterday's morning measurement. This measure swings between extremes from one day to the next, so we don't treat a difference like this as a move.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 73.2% long against 73.4%.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 28.1% long across $1.37B of positions, the largest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — over the day the whales' long share rose by 0.3 points.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short, in bitcoin 4.4 times the long against 3.8 yesterday; since yesterday's snapshot price rose 1.4%, and over the day the short grew: the two biggest shorts near the market gave up, the others added more. The witnesses: the funds have no data; options, futures, the crowd and stress are silent.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a fall: yesterday's rise ran straight against the whales' short. What is new is something else — fuel sits close to the price again on both sides, and on each side a single account holds it. This is about the range of a move for the same push, not about its direction.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• exactly who gave up near the market and what it cost — and who opened a short over the following hour;
• the short whose liquidation line now sits right next to the price, and the account that gave up in ether yesterday and stands long in bitcoin today;
• the structure of the day: the expiry, the premium and where it gains.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
💎DEEP
🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠
Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 04:16 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 04:16 snapshots, in coins; the moves of individual addresses come from the trade records. Distance to liquidation is from the header spot. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.
The short that sat through the high two days ago — gave up. Yesterday at 13:37–14:08 UTC the address bought back all 430BTC of its short at $81,679–82,888, a realised result of −$797k, with no forced closure. Its liquidation line stood at $84,241; the day's high was $83,425, and price never reached it. This morning the account holds nothing. The ether short from Friday's low — gave up and turned around. At 14:07–14:08 UTC the address bought back all 10,000 ETH of its short at $2,436–2,443, −$878k, with no forced closure. Its liquidation line stood at $2,451 — ether passed it at 14:10, two minutes later, and within five minutes reached $2,473. From 14:09 to 21:15 the same address bought 255BTC at $82,939–83,286: this morning LONG 255BTC ($21.1M) at 40× from $83,035, liquidation at $81,819 — 1.5% under the market. That is almost all of the long fuel within 2% of the price. The short on the edge — back on the edge. Yesterday it held 56.6BTC with its line 9.5% above the market. At 14:14–15:13 UTC — on the climb to the 14:57 high and a little after it — the address sold a further 219BTC at $82,412–83,241. This morning SHORT 275.9BTC ($22.8M) at 40× from $82,836, liquidation at $83,503 — 0.6% above the market. Today at 08:15 UTC bitcoin reached $83,357; the Hyperliquid API at 08:25 UTC shows the line at $83,474 and −$98k on the position. That is almost all of the short fuel within 2%. The 40× short that left two days ago — back. At 14:20–14:27 UTC, on the climb, half an hour before the day's high, the address opened a 200BTC short at $83,000: SHORT 200BTC ($16.6M) at 40×, liquidation at $93,124 — 12.1% above the market. Yesterday's new 40× long — out in the black. Yesterday at 06:11–08:06 UTC the address bought a further 200BTC at $81,366–81,700, and at 14:01–14:03 sold all 400 at $82,170–82,345, +$171k. This morning no positions. The 25× long — halved. At 15:46–16:00 UTC it sold 250BTC at $82,353–82,592, +$7.5k: LONG 250BTC ($20.7M), liquidation at $69,565 — 16.2% under the market. The day's account — back in the market. After two days without positions, today at 00:30 UTC it bought 1,936 ETH at $2,455–2,456: LONG at 25×, liquidation at $2,406 — 1.8% under the market. The self-named address — added short.+65BTC over the day: SHORT 501BTC ($41.5M) at 25× from $82,049, liquidation at $100,425 — 20.9% above the market. The largest ether long at 10× — unchanged over the day: LONG 45,169 ETH ($110.4M) from $2,622, uPnL −$8.0M, liquidation at $2,234 — 8.8% under the market. The largest short house — added in bitcoin. One of the house's addresses sold a further 168BTC over the day and bought back 4,488 ETH of short, the other added only 2.8BTC of short: BTC SHORT $214.2M from $76,212, uPnL −$17.0M, and BTC SHORT $207.7M from $78,099, uPnL −$11.8M. Together with their ether shorts the two addresses carry $46.4M of unrealised loss against $37.9M yesterday; their $422M make up 57% of the registry's bitcoin short side against 61% — the share fell because others were adding short too. The market's biggest gain — ETH LONG $74.0M at 20× from $2,134, uPnL +$9.4M.
Cases in the registry — ten new, nine in bitcoin; 181 open. Case No. 1197 · BTC, the structure of the day, today at 01:01 UTC: 500 calls at $90,000 bought and 500 at $95,000 sold, both for 06.11; premium ≈2.2BTC paid. It breaks even if on 06.11 bitcoin is above ≈$90,400; it gains most from $95,000 up. The lower strike is 8.4% above spot at $83,036.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-06 expiry. The whale paid $183k in premium. Breakeven: $90,365.
Case No. 1199 · BTC, a condor for 06.11, at 04:35 UTC in two identical blocks: 75 contracts each — an $82,000 put and an $83,000 call sold, a $77,000 put and an $88,000 call bought; ≈2.8BTC of premium received per block. It pays most if on 06.11 bitcoin sits between $82,000 and $83,000; spot at $83,036 is just above the corridor.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-06 expiry. The whale received $233k in premium. Breakeven: $78,897 and $86,103.
Case No. 1200 · BTC, a condor for tomorrow's expiry 22.10: 40 contracts each — an $82,500 put and an $83,500 call sold, an $81,000 put and an $85,000 call bought; premium ≈0.24BTC received. It pays most if tomorrow at 08:00 UTC bitcoin sits between $82,500 and $83,500; spot is inside.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-22 expiry. The whale received $20k in premium. Breakeven: $81,994 and $84,006.
Case No. 1195 — closed. Yesterday's condor for today's expiry settled at 08:00 UTC at $83,029 — above the sold $82,000 call; for the whale ≈−$9.7k. Case No. 1189 · BTC: 500 calls at $83,000 for 06.11 bought, 500 at $88,000 for 26.03.2027 sold. Spot at $83,036 now sits above the bought strike, by $36; yesterday it was 1.4% under it.
Payoff profile at the 2026-11-06 expiry. The whale received $2.0M in premium. No breakeven inside the range shown.
Case No. 1081 · a BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026, premium ≈9.61BTC received. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 9.5% against this position — yesterday it was 7.9%.
Payoff profile at the 2026-10-30 expiry. The whale received $729k in premium. Breakeven: $76,290.
The tape outside the case registry. On Tuesday at 14:35–14:36 UTC — four identical blocks, in each: for 30.10, 1,500 calls at $90,000 and 1,500 at $100,000 sold, 3,000 at $95,000 bought; for 06.11, 500 calls at $90,000 bought and 500 at $95,000 sold; ≈0.5BTC of premium paid per block. Within one minute — 12,000 calls at $95,000 in total. Open interest at $95,000 and $100,000 for 30.10 fell over the week by 2,859 and 3,118 contracts — so we treat this as the closing of a "butterfly" centred on $95,000 and the rolling of a smaller part to 06.11, not as a new position. At 23:49–23:50 UTC — two identical blocks for 25.12: 200 calls at $90,000 bought, 150 calls at $80,000 and 50 puts at $78,000 sold; ≈8.2BTC of premium received per block. In ether — a condor for 23.10, 250 contracts each: a $2,440 put and a $2,450 call sold, a $2,320 put and a $2,550 call bought. ΔOI over the week:BTC: −3,118 calls at $100,000, all on 30.10; −2,859 at $95,000, 98% on 30.10; +2,787 at $82,000, over 11 expiries. ETH: +36,572 calls at $2,600, 86% on 30.10; +14,107 at $2,500, over 11 expiries; +12,883 puts at $2,200, over 10 expiries.
🔬Who exactly
Both of the biggest shorts are Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): over the day one of the addresses added 168BTC of short and bought back 4,488 ETH at $2,377–2,392, −$46k; the unrealised loss across BTC and ETH is $46.4M.
The address with the Arkham label Fasanara Capital added 171BTC and 1,624 ETH of short between the snapshots: BTC SHORT $50.9M at 30× from $82,215 and ETH SHORT $48.6M at 25× from $2,516, uPnL in ether +$1.4M.
The short that gave up, the ether short that turned into a long, the short on the edge, the short that came back and the day's account carry no public labels.
Money by address. Over seven days the largest bitcoin deposits — from Binance, $2.8–3.8M each; overnight five transfers for $13.1M came from there — four of that size and one of $1.25M. Bitcoin withdrawals over the week — $3.3M, all to exchanges. The USDC cash that left over the day — $2.7M in small sums: $1.25M to OKX and Binance deposit addresses, the rest to private addresses and addresses of other players.
🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬
Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days on 127 addresses: BTC — about $106M into the short, ETH — about $58M into the long; yesterday on 124 addresses — $50M and $117M into the long. The weekly window has shifted by a day, so we don't treat the difference from yesterday as the day's move — the daily shift is counted separately, above.
Gamma flip.BTC across the whole book, computed at 07:43 UTC, before the expiry — $80,255 against $80,574 yesterday — spot 3.5% above it (what the flip is). On the near expiries, computed at 08:21 UTC, the flip at 2–7 days is $82,469–82,480 — now under spot, yesterday it was above; at 14–30 days $81,377–81,545. Price again stands above all the near flips, as it did two days ago — in the zone where dealers damp a move. ETH across the whole book $2,363 against $2,364; at 2–7 days $2,454–2,458 — above the market: ether has been under the near flip for at least a fifth day, but is now right up against it.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +3.6 (IV37.0 against the actual weekly HV33.4) against +3.4 yesterday.
🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠
BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Tomorrow's Thursday expiry 22.10: max pain$82,500 across the combined book and on Deribit, $82,750 on Bybit (what max pain is); put $81,500 (190 contracts), call $86,000 (175) (what the walls are). 30.10: max pain$78,000 across the combined book and on Deribit, $82,000 on Bybit; put wall $70,000 (4,404), call wall $95,000 (20,040). The market-maker corridor for today — $80,500–84,000.
ETH levels. 22.10: max pain$2,440 across the combined book, $2,400 on Deribit, $2,440 on Bybit; put $2,100 (1,004), call $2,600 (988). 30.10: max pain$2,500, put wall $2,300 (24,222), call wall $2,600 (37,529). The market-maker corridor — $2,320–2,500.
Fuel. At the 04:16 UTC snapshot, under BTC within 5% of the price at the time ($78,659–86,939) there are $40.3M of long positions against $8.9M yesterday; above it — $27.4M of shorts against $37.8M. The nearest short line is $83,503, the short on the edge; the largest long line within 2% is $81,819, the ether short-seller who turned around. Between the market and +2% — $25.0M of short lines against $2.1M yesterday; between the market and −2% — $22.5M of long lines against $3.0M. In ETH no short lines remain above the market within 5% (yesterday $24.3M); under it — $10.0M of longs against $3.9M, $4.7M of which is the day's account with its line at $2,406. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).
Gamma vacuum. In BTC there are no empty zones above the market; below it $77,000–$78,000 is empty; in ETH — $2,300–$2,350 under the market.
Stress test ±2%. From the header spot: in bitcoin a 2% fall ($81,375) lands on the near flips at 14–30 days ($81,377–81,545) and already under the $81,819 long line, but above the whole-book flip at $80,255; above, +2% ($84,697) is past the $83,503 short line and still under the $90,000 call wall across the whole book. In ether −2% ($2,401) lands on the $2,400 put wall across the whole book, above the flip at $2,363.
OI flow.BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.56 · week 0.59 · now 0.59. ETH0.53 · 0.52 · 0.50 (what put/call is).
Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days BTC put/call is 0.60 on Deribit against 1.46 on Bybit; ETH0.82 and 0.93.
IV by tenor.BTC 2d P32/C30 · 9d P35/C33 · 37d P38/C35, percentiles since February for the 9- and 37-day — 24th and 32nd; the two-day is in the cross-check above. ETH 2d P46/C43 · 9d P50/C48 · 37d P52/C50, percentiles 34th, 37th and 32nd. Day to day we compare only the two-day tenor: yesterday BTC P31, ETH P48. BTCDVOL37.0 against 30-day realised HV32.8 — a premium of +4.2 against +5.1 yesterday; ETHDVOL50.5 against HV48.9 — +1.7 against +5.2 (what the premium is).
💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠
The code's verdicts. The scenarios from 19.10 closed this morning: "The corridor holds" (rated 50%) was confirmed — within $80,750–84,050 throughout, closing at $82,771; "Squeeze up through the short fuel" (25%) wasn't confirmed — the high was $83,215 against the $84,050 level; "Slide into the long fuel" (25%) wasn't confirmed — the low was $81,330 against the $80,750 level. The code counts hourly closes; on 15-minute bars the high was $83,425 — also below the level. The scenarios from 20.10 stay open until 22.10.
The all-time tally (N counts only those that reached a verdict): squeeze up through the short fuel — 17 of 42, 18 more cancelled at their level; corridor — 27 of 51 plus 13 partial, 5 more cancelled; slide into the long fuel — 16 of 34, 15 more cancelled. The directional types are still no better than a coin toss.
The corridor holds — 50%. ⏱ 2 days, to 23.10. BTC stays within the near 2% of the market: $81,400–$84,700. Both 40× liquidation lines — the short at $83,503 and the long at $81,819 — lie inside the corridor. Cancellation level: a touch of $78,900 — 5% below the header spot.
Squeeze up through the short fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 23.10. Trigger: a touch of $84,700 — a break above the near 2%, already past the $83,503 short line. Cancellation level: a touch of $81,400.
Slide into the long fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 23.10. Trigger: a touch of $81,400 — a break below the near 2%, already under the $81,819 long line and under the near gamma flips. Cancellation level: a touch of $84,700.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.
🔭WHAT TO WATCH
• The short on the edge: liquidation line at $83,503 at the snapshot, $83,474 at 08:25 UTC — 0.6% above the market, $22.8M (💠).
• The ether short-seller who turned around: long 255BTC at 40×, line at $81,819 — 1.5% under the market (💠).
• The day's account, back in the market: an ether long, line at $2,406 — 1.8% under the market (💠).
🆓TAIL
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel(the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
+$398 on the day · +$7,573 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 514%−$1,125+$77,219 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 417%−$1,125+$25,809 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 3936%−$479+$10,898 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 5131%−$789+$4,801 26.05
Fear Flash V3 1127%−$139+$1,766 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,812 · Wheel Trail V6 −$9,823 · Wheel Trail V7 −$8,763 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs. Over the day two trades closed in the top five, both at a loss: Volatility Convergence V3 and Skew 2.0 V2; the Pendulum made +$398 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 51 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 456 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 371 times — 81%. On Tuesday it held both settlements, for the fifth day running; this morning in bitcoin the settlement left the corridor by $29, in ether it held. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold — today was one of those.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 170 of those same 456 expiries, 37%; on Tuesday — bitcoin only, today — neither. Decision: we don't chase max pain — the three-day run ended the way it began.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 114, 43%. Today in bitcoin price reached both walls: it broke through the call wall, the put wall held. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 885 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 878 with a score, −$18.94M in total for the whales. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$7,573 since 11.05 with +$398 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 55 out of 100 against 50 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself.BTC two-day vol — 27th percentile of the hourly history since February, nine-day — 24th, 37 days out — 32nd: insurance is cheaper than usual on every tenor.
• Which way protection tilts.BTCskew+2.7: puts dearer than calls, but less so than yesterday's +3.7. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.